An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical evaluation of the damping‐solvent extraction method in the frequency domain

The damping‐solvent extraction method for the analysis of unbounded visco‐elastic media is evaluated numerically in the frequency domain in order to investigate the influence of the computational parameters—domain size, amount of artificial damping, and mesh density—on the accuracy of results. An analytical estimate of this influence is presented, and specific questions regarding the influence of the parameters on the results are answered using the analytical estimate and numerical results for two classical problems: the rigid strip and rigid disc footings on a visco‐elastic half‐space with constant hysteretic material damping. As the domain size is increased, the results become more accurate only at lower frequencies, but are essentially unaffected at higher frequencies. Choosing the domain size to ensure that the static stiffness is computed accurately leads to an unnecessarily large domain for analysis at higher frequencies. The results improve by increasing artificial damping but at a slower rate as the total (material plus artificial) damping ratio ζ_t gets closer to 0.866. However, the results do not deteriorate significantly for the larger amounts of artificial damping, suggesting that ζ_t≈0.6 is appropriate; a larger value is not likely to influence the accuracy of results. Presented results do not support the earlier suggestion that similar accuracy can be achieved by a large bounded domain with small damping or by a small domain with larger damping. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

公路边坡工程监测技术评价与分析

结合公路工程、建筑工程等土木工程建设中经常涉及到的边坡工程,评价与分析边坡工程监测的作用、内容和方法,提出了边坡工程应该在工程项目开展的开始阶段就应进行和边坡工程监测的项目,选择原则,测点布置原则、监测周期等,对边坡工程建设具有重要的意义.     

长江三峡工程蓄水对链子崖危岩体T8-T12缝段稳定性影响研究

三峡水库蓄水后,已治理的链子崖危岩体,特别是T8-T12缝段岩体将受到江水的长期作用和影响,直接关系到防治工程的成败.通过大量实地调查和岩体测试,着重论述水库蓄水对T8-T12裂缝及其充填物的作用和影响;并以此为基础,用改进的Sarma法对该段危岩体的稳定性进行重新计算和评价,得出一系列新的结论:总体上,长江水位抬升后,水对裂缝的溶蚀作用和劈裂作用,使裂缝整体加宽,不利于危岩体的稳定;考虑岩体和承重阻滑键取长期强度和江水位骤然升降,以及地震影响,链子崖危岩体整体稳定性将恶化,但NE20°方向稳定程度好于NW350°.     

渤海湾盆地埕岛东斜坡地区东三段油气成岩成藏模式

通过分析埕岛东斜坡地区东三段砂岩成岩作用特征 ,以及对该地区油气成藏系统的研究 ,总结出东三段砂岩体的成岩成藏模式。东三段上部砂体成藏于馆陶组沉积期 ,对应于早成岩 B期阶段 ,油气过早进入砂岩体 ,充填了孔隙 ,抑制了成岩作用的进行 ,使原生孔隙得以良好的保存。目前该砂体位于晚成岩 A期阶段 ,伴随形成了次生孔隙 ,并正处于第二次成藏期     

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

Anatomy of shelf deltas at the edge of a prograding Eocene shelf margin, Spitsbergen

Abstract Although shelf‐edge deltas are well‐imaged seismic features of Holocene and Pleistocene shelf margins, documented outcrop analogues of these important sand‐prone reservoirs are rare. The facies and stratigraphic architecture of an outcropping shelf‐edge delta system in the Eocene Battfjellet Formation, Spitsbergen, is presented here, as well as the implications of this delta system for the generation of sand‐prone, shelf‐margin clinoforms. The shelf‐edge deltas of the Battfjellet Formation on Litledalsfjellet and Høgsnyta produced a 3–5 × 15 km, shelf edge‐attached, slope apron (70 m of sandstones proximally, tapering to zero on the lower slope). The slope apron consists of distributary channel and mouth‐bar deposits in its shelf‐edge reaches, passing downslope to slope channels/chutes that fed turbiditic lobes and spillover sheets. In the transgressive phase of the slope apron, estuaries developed at the shelf edge, and these also produced minor lobes on the slope. The short‐headed mountainous rivers that drained the adjacent orogenic belt and fed the narrow shelf, and the shelf‐edge position of the discharging deltas, made an appropriate setting for the generation of hyperpycnal turbidity currents on the slope of the shelf margin. The abundance of organic matter and of coal fragments in the slope turbidites is consistent with this notion. Evidence that many of the slope turbidites were generated by sustained turbidity currents that waxed then waned includes the presence of scour surfaces and thick intervals of plane‐parallel laminae within turbidite beds in the slope channels, and thick spillover lobes with repetitive alternations of massive and flat‐laminated intervals. The examined shelf‐edge to slope system, now preserved mainly below the shelf break and dominated by sediment gravity‐flow deposits, has a threefold stratigraphic architecture: a lower, progradational part, in which the clinoforms have a slight downward‐directed trajectory; a thin aggradational zone; and an upper part in which clinoforms backstep up onto the shelf edge. A greatly increased density of erosional channels and chutes marks the regressive‐to‐transgressive turnaround within the slope apron, and this zone becomes an angular unconformity up near the shelf edge. This unconformity, with both subaerial and subaqueous components, is interpreted as a sequence boundary and developed by vigorous sand delivery and bypass across the shelf edge during the time interval of falling relative sea level. The studied shelf‐margin clinoforms accreted mostly during falling stage (sea level below the shelf edge), but the outer shelf later became estuarine as sea level became re‐established above the shelf edge.     

How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides

A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm³ Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and t_f) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.     

Spatial and temporal variability of pore‐water pressures in residual soil slopes in a tropical climate

It is critical to understand and quantify the temporal and spatial variability in hillslope hydrological data in order to advance hillslope hydrological studies, evaluate distributed parameter hydrological models, analyse variability in hydrological response of slopes and design efficient field data sampling networks. The spatial and temporal variability of field‐measured pore‐water pressures in three residual soil slopes in Singapore was investigated using geostatistical methods. Parameters of the semivariograms, namely the range, sill and nugget effect, revealed interesting insights into the spatial structure of the temporal situation of pore‐water pressures in the slopes. While informative, mean estimates have been shown to be inadequate for modelling purposes, indicator semivariograms together with mean prediction by kriging provide a better form of model input. Results also indicate that significant temporal and spatial variability in pore‐water pressures exists in the slope profile and thereby induces variability in hydrological response of the slope. Spatial and temporal variability in pore‐water pressure decreases with increasing soil depth. The variability decreases during wet conditions as the slope approaches near saturation and the variability increases with high matric suction development following rainfall periods. Variability in pore‐water pressures is greatest at shallow depths and near the slope crest and is strongly influenced by the combined action of microclimate, vegetation and soil properties. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic evaluation of existing nuclear facility using ambient vibration test to characterize dynamic behavior of the structure and microtremor measurements to characterize the soil: a case study

The methods used for a building seismic hazard evaluation are presented with the associated results. The goals of the study are (1) to check the soil nature and the existence or not of a possible site effect around the installation and (2) to characterize the dynamic behavior of the building using ambient vibration records.

The results of the soil study with the Nakamura method are very difficult to interpret because they are not stable in space and time. The spectral ratios method has been used with regional earthquake records. The results of the application of this method allowed us to conclude that the installation was free of site effect.

The ambient vibration measurements on the building brought the conclusion to determine the first and second modes of the structure. These results have been used to calibrate numerical model. The modal shapes in plan (high roof) and in elevation (main column) have been evaluated. The damping of the building has been computed using ambient vibration records.