A hybrid Bayesian back‐propagation neural network approach to multivariate modelling

There is growing interest in the use of back‐propagation neural networks to model non‐linear multivariate problems in geotehnical engineering. To overcome the shortcomings of the conventional back‐propagation neural network, such as overfitting, where the neural network learns the spurious details and noise in the training examples, a hybrid back‐propagation algorithm has been developed. The method utilizes the genetic algorithms search technique and the Bayesian neural network methodology. The genetic algorithms enhance the stochastic search to locate the global minima for the neural network model. The Bayesian inference procedures essentially provide better generalization and a statistical approach to deal with data uncertainty in comparison with the conventional back‐propagation. The uncertainty of data can be indicated using error bars. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the convergence and generalization capabilities of this hybrid algorithm. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Source signature and elastic waves in a half‐space under a momentary shear line impulse

The transient deformation of an elastic half‐space under a line‐concentrated impulsive vector shear load applied momentarily is disclosed in this paper. While in an earlier work, the author gave an analytical–numerical method for the solution to this transient boundary‐value problem, here, the resultant response of the half‐space is presented and interpreted. In particular, a probe is set up for the kinematics of the source signature and wave fronts, both explicitly revealed in the strained half‐space by the solution method. The source signature is the imprint of the spatiotemporal configuration of the excitation source in the resultant response. Fourteen wave fronts exist behind the precursor shear wave S: four concentric cylindrical, eight plane, and two relativistic cylindrical initiated at propagating centres that are located on the stationary boundaries of the solution domain. A snapshot of the stressed half‐space reveals that none of the 14 wave fronts fully extend laterally. Instead, each is enclosed within point bounds. These wave arresting points and the two propagating centres of the relativistic waves constitute the source signature. The obtained 14 wave fronts are further combined into 11 disparate wave fronts that are grouped into four categories: an axis of symmetry wave—so named here by reason of being a wave front that is contiguous to the axis of symmetry, three body waves, five surface waves and two inhibitor waves—so named here by reason that beyond them the material motion dies out. Of the three body waves, the first is an unloading shear wave, the second is a diffracted wave and the third is a reflected longitudinal two‐branch wave. Of the two inhibitor waves, the first is a two‐joint relativistic wave, while the second is a two‐branch wave. The wave system, however, is not the same for all the dependent variables; a wave front that appears in the behaviour of one dependent variable may not exist in the behaviour of another. It is evident from this work that Saint–Venant's principle for wave propagation problems cannot be formulated. Therefore, the above results are valid for the particular proposed model for the momentary line‐concentrated shear load. The formulation of the source signature, the wave system, and their role in the half‐space transient deformation are presented here. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palaeoecological evidence of changes in vegetation and climate during the Holocene in the pre‐Polar Urals,northeast European Russia

This study investigated Holocene tree‐line history and climatic change in the pre‐Polar Urals, northeast European Russia. A sediment core from Mezhgornoe Lake situated at the present‐day alpine tree‐line was studied for pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera and diatoms. A peat section from Vangyr Mire in the nearby mixed mountain taiga zone was analysed for pollen. The results suggest that the study area experienced a climatic optimum in the early Holocene and that summer temperatures were at least 2°C warmer than today. Tree birch immigrated to the Mezhgornoe Lake area at the onset of the Holocene. Mixed spruce forests followed at ca. 9500–9000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Climate was moist and the water level of Mezhgornoe Lake rose rapidly. The hypsithermal phase lasted until ca. 5500–4500 ¹⁴C yr BP, after which the mixed forest withdrew from the Mezhgornoe catchment as a result of the climate cooling. The gradual altitudinal downward shift of vegetation zones resulted in the present situation, with larch forming the tree‐line. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical solutions for flow in porous media

A numerical approach is proposed to model the flow in porous media using homogenization theory. The proposed concept involves the analyses of micro‐true flow at pore‐level and macro‐seepage flow at macro‐level. Macro‐seepage and microscopic characteristic flow equations are first derived from the Navier–Stokes equation at low Reynolds number through a two‐scale homogenization method. This homogenization method adopts an asymptotic expansion of velocity and pressure through the micro‐structures of porous media. A slightly compressible condition is introduced to express the characteristic flow through only characteristic velocity. This characteristic flow is then numerically solved using a penalty FEM scheme. Reduced integration technique is introduced for the volumetric term to avoid mesh locking. Finally, the numerical model is examined using two sets of permeability test data on clay and one set of permeability test data on sand. The numerical predictions agree well with the experimental data if constraint water film is considered for clay and two‐dimensional cross‐connection effect is included for sand. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The key‐group method

This paper proposes an extension to the key‐block method, called ‘key‐group method’, that considers not only individual key blocks but also groups of collapsable blocks into an iterative and progressive analysis of the stability of discontinuous rock slopes. The basics of the key‐block method are recalled herein and then used to prove how key groups can be identified. We reveal that a key group must contain at least one basic key block, yet this condition is not entirely sufficient. The second block candidate for grouping must be another key block or a block whose movement‐preventing faces are common to one or more single key blocks. We also show that the proposed method yields more realistic results than the basic key‐block method and a comparison with results obtained using a distinct element analysis demonstrates the ability of this new method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

陕西省岚皋县城关镇泥石流形成条件及其防治

本文论述了陕西省岚皋县城关镇一带近年来所爆发的泥石流的形成条件、发育特征和发展趋势。据此文中提出了区内小白虎崖泥石流的发育过程模式和对区内泥石流的防治原则和措施。     

中天山坡地冰缘地貌的若干问题

由 1985—1989年野外调查结果和定位重复观测资料可知,本区坡地冰缘地貌的分布特征为:1.各类坡地冰缘形态彼此具有成因联系;2.不同序次的冰缘地貌类型具有各自的时空分异;3.不同的坡地冰缘地貌类型在一定条件下可有所转化。再则,本区风化以寒冻剥裂和寒冻楔入为主,呈现在时空和状态上为不可逆过程的耗散结构。     

“GALICIA'S HURRICANE”: ACTOR NETWORKS AND ICONIC CONSTRUCTIONS*

Monumental constructions are created for a purpose, often as a symbolic representation of a particular vision of a people or a place. Spain's Cidade da Cultura, a museum conceptualized by Galicia's former president with the hubristic goal of creating a world icon, is one such example. Like many iconic constructions, the Cidade da Cultura project was highly contentious and sparked a regionwide political debate, vastly overran its projected cost, and years later remains controversial and incomplete. An actor‐network theory analysis of why the project failed reveals the different roles played by individual components in the vast network of actors, including the monument itself, which came to exercise influence over the outcome of the project. Because the former president could not fully control this expanding network of actors, events soon spun out of control in what became popularly known as “Galicia's Hurricane.”     

无限长土坡滑移变形模拟

从建立土体应力平衡微分方程入手,在平面应变的假定下求解均质无限长土坡的应力平衡方程。通过拟定坡土的滑移速度和粘塑性应变率的关系式,以剑桥模型为依托,得出滑移变形速率的显式表达式,由此推出土坡滑动位移的计算式。因为模型计算值与实测值无论变形趋势还是大小都有不少误差,所以经修正粘滞性参数来改进模型的模拟精度。最后通过一个算例,将现场实测滑移数据和模型计算值进行比较,分析表明二者较为一致。     

自然降雨条件下不同生态措施坡地的径流数值模拟

从动量定理和水量平衡原理出发,以Saint Venant方程为基础推导出自然降雨条件下不同生态措施(即同时考虑变雨强、降雨动量和不同生态措施影响下的坡地径流过程)坡地的径流基本方程。在考虑一般问题定解条件的基础上,采用Preissmann隐式格式对模型进行数值求解。利用3个处理(裸地、百喜草覆盖和百喜草+果树覆盖)、5组实测资料(不同雨型)对模型进行了验证,结果表明3个处理的计算值与实测值的平均相对误差分别为:14.97%、13.59%、15.15%,说明模型的计算结果是可靠的,对于模拟预测自然降雨条件下不同生态措施坡地径流过程是可行的。