Event-based classification for global study of river flood generating processes

Better understanding of which processes generate floods in a catchment can improve flood frequency analysis and potentially climate change impacts assessment. However, current flood classification methods are either not transferable across locations or do not provide event-based information. We therefore developed a location-independent, event-based flood classification methodology that is applicable in different climates and returns a classification of all flood events, including extreme ones. We use precipitation time series and very simply modelled soil moisture and snowmelt as inputs for a decision tree. A total of 113,635 events in 4155 catchments worldwide were classified into one of five hydro-climatological flood generating processes: short rain, long rain, excess rainfall, snowmelt and a combination of rain and snow. The new classification was tested for its robustness and evaluated with available information; these two tests are often lacking in current flood classification approaches. According to the evaluation, the classification is mostly successful and indicates excess rainfall as the most common dominant process. However, the dominant process is not very informative in most catchments, as there is a high at-site variability in flood generating processes. This is particularly relevant for the estimation of extreme floods which diverge from their usual flood generation pattern, especially in the United Kingdom, Northern France, Southeastern United States, and India.     

Bidirectional shaking table tests of a low-cost friction sliding system with flat-inclined surfaces

A novel low-cost friction sliding system for bidirectional excitation is developed to improve the seismic performance of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge piers. The sliding system is a spherical prototype developed by combining a central flat surface with an inclined spherical segment, characterized by stable oscillation and a large reduction in response accelerations on the flat surface. The inclined part provides a restoring force that limits the residual displacements of the system. Conventional steel and concrete are employed to construct a flat-inclined spherical surface atop an RC pier. The seismic forces are dissipated through the frictions generated during the sliding movements; hence, the seismic resilience of bridges can be ensured with a low-cost design solution. The proposed system is fabricated utilizing a mold created by a three-dimensional printer, which facilitates the use of conventional concrete to construct spherical shapes. The concrete surface is lubricated with a resin material to prevent abrasion from multiple input ground motions. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the system, bidirectional shaking table tests are conducted in the longitudinal and transverse directions of a scaled bridge model. The effect of the inclination angle and the flat surface size is investigated. The results demonstrate a large decrease in response acceleration when the system exhibits circular sliding displacement. Furthermore, the inclination angle that generates the smallest residual displacement is identified experimentally.     

Socio-hydrological framework for investigating farmers’ activities affecting the shrinkage of Urmia Lake; hybrid data mining and agent-based modelling

ABSTRACT

Developing a general framework to capture the complexities associated with the non-linear and adaptive nature of farmers facing water resources scarcity is a challenging problem. This paper integrates agent-based modelling (ABM) and a data mining method to develop a hybrid socio-hydrological framework to provide future insights for policy-makers. The data associated with the farmers’ main characteristics were collected through field surveys and interviews. Afterwards, the association rule was employed to discover the main patterns representing the farmers’ agricultural decisions. The discovered patterns were then used as the behavioural rules in ABM to simulate the agricultural activities. The proposed framework has been was applied to explore the interactions between agricultural activities and the main river feeding the Urmia-Lake, Iran. The outcomes indicate that farmers’ acquisitive traits and belongings have significant impacts on their socio-hydrological interactions. The reported values of the efficiency criteria may support the satisfactory performance of the proposed framework.     

村镇滑移隔震建筑瞬时摩擦耗能的参数敏感性分析

给出了村镇滑移隔震建筑瞬时摩擦耗能的概念,并以此概念为响应指标。通过极差大小的对比,分析了该响应指标对刚度比、第二阶段刚度系数、隔震层屈服位移、隔震层摩擦系数、系统质量比和上部结构自振周期六个参数变化的敏感程度,阐述了上述系统参数对瞬时摩擦耗能这一响应指标的影响规律。研究表明:场地条件和地震动幅值大小对瞬时摩擦耗能均有显著影响;在所考虑的参数范围内,上部结构自振周期总是对瞬时摩擦耗能有较为显著的影响,摩擦系数对瞬时摩擦耗能的影响跟场地条件有关,Ⅰ类场地条件中摩擦系数对瞬时摩擦耗能影响不显著,而Ⅱ、Ⅲ和Ⅳ类场地条件中,摩擦系数对瞬时摩擦耗能的影响则非常显著;隔震层屈服位移、刚度比和第二阶段刚度系数总得来讲对瞬时摩擦耗能影响不显著,质量比对瞬时摩擦耗能影响居中。     

Flow resistance and hydraulic geometry in bedrock rivers with multiple roughness length scales

Many models of incision by bedrock rivers predict water depth and shear stress from discharge; conversely, palaeoflood discharge is sometimes reconstructed from flow depth markers in rock gorges. In both cases, assumptions are made about flow resistance. The depth–discharge relation in a bedrock river must depend on at least two roughness length scales (exposed rock and sediment cover) and possibly a third (sidewalls). A conceptually attractive way to model the depth–discharge relation in such situations is to partition the total shear stress and friction factor, but it is not obvious how to quantify the friction factor for rough walls in a way that can be used in incision process models. We show that a single flow resistance calculation using a spatially averaged roughness length scale closely approximates the partitioning of stress between sediment and rock, and between bed and walls, in idealized scenarios. Both approaches give closer fits to the measured depth–discharge relations in two small bedrock reaches than can be achieved using a fixed value of Manning's n or the Chézy friction factor. Sidewalls that are substantially rougher or smoother than the bed have a significant effect on the partitioning of shear stress between bed and sidewalls. More research is needed on how best to estimate roughness length scales from observable or measurable channel characteristics. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多维多点激励下考虑支座摩擦滑移及结构碰撞的非规则桥梁抗震性能研究

以一座典型山区非规则梁桥为研究对象,建立了该桥梁多维多点激励下的多自由度动力计算模型,研究了该桥梁在多维多点激励下考虑支座摩擦滑移及结构碰撞等非线性因素时的抗震性能。研究结果表明:相比一维地震输入,多维地震可使结构的动力响应增加,桥墩底部弯矩需求增大;相比一致激励,多点激励可使得支座的位移需求增大,且地震波最后到达的桥墩上方支座位移最大;同时考虑多点激励和碰撞效应可使桥墩的弯矩需求增加;水平地震作用下,矮墩上部的支座容易滑动,且双向地震较单向地震更明显,三向地震输入较双向有所增强。因此,对山区非规则梁桥进行抗震设计时应有针对性地进行多维多点地震输入计算,找出结构的最大地震需求,以期指导设计。     

汶川M_W7.9地震起始破裂断层几何结构

本文收集使用紫坪铺水库台网记录到的汶川地震主震P波波形资料,利用P波反投影叠加法获取了2008年5月12日汶川M_W7.9地震起始破裂的时空演化过程.通过分析本次大地震起始破裂阶段(0～1s)破裂点在三维空间内的分布特征,确定了本次大地震起始破裂位置及起始破裂断层几何结构模型.得到以下结果:汶川地震起始破裂点位于31.013±0.002°N、103.392±0.002°E,震源深度为8.2±0.4km,发震时刻为2008年5月12日14∶27∶58.80±0.4.汶川地震起始破裂的最佳断层面走向为NE48°,倾向NW35°,起始阶段破裂的深度范围为地下7.5～9km.     

典型喀斯特峡谷区碳储量空间分配格局、演变过程及其贡献率

采用样方法和土地利用转移矩阵,以贵州省西南部的晴隆县为研究区域,研究了典型喀斯特峡谷区不同土地利用类型在1988、1999和2009年的碳储量空间格局和演变过程,并由此估算了贵州省喀斯特峡谷区的碳储量及贡献率。结果表明：晴隆县喀斯特区域的碳储量和平均碳密度呈先减少后增加的趋势。由晴隆县不同情况下的碳储量比例关系,估算出贵州省喀斯特峡谷区碳储量的实际值为42.55 Tg。同时,研究结果表明人类活动对碳储量的空间格局和演变有很大的影响。此外,估算的贵州省喀斯特峡谷区生态系统的平均碳密度远高于中国陆地生态系统的平均值,土壤平均碳密度则接近全国陆地生态系统平均值,但其植被平均碳密度却远高于全国陆地生态系统平均值,与全国森林系统的植被平均碳密度持平。这说明喀斯特峡谷区具有极大的固碳潜力,对其进行石漠化防治,是极其必要的。     

Imaging the rupture process of the 10 January 2018 MW7.5 Swan island,Honduras earthquake*

The 10 January 2018 M_W7.5 Swan island, Honduras earthquake occurred on the Swan island fault, which is a transform plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. Here we back-project the rupture process of the earthquake using dense seismic stations in Alaska, and find that the earthquake ruptured at least three faults (three stages) for a duration of ~40 s. The rupture speed for the longest fault (stage 3) is as fast as 5 km/s, which is much faster than the local shear wave velocity of ~4 km/s. Supershear rupture was incidentally observed on long and straight strike-slip faults. This study shows a supershear rupture that occured on a strike-slip fault with moderate length, implying that supershear rupture might commonly occur on large strike-slip earthquakes. The common occurrence of supershear rupture on strike-slip earthquakes will challenge present understanding of crack physics, as well as strong ground motion evaluation in earthquake engineering.     

采坑型滑坡地质力学模式研究--以贵州省福泉滑坡为例

福泉滑坡具有顺倾上硬下软的结构特征,采用颗粒流离散元模拟采动滑坡的变形破坏全过程,研究福泉滑坡在露天开采条件下变形破坏的地质力学模式。基于颗粒流离散元程序,引入平行粘结模型,通过参数标定确定细观参数与宏观力学性质的关系,据此建立斜坡模型,模拟斜坡采动过程中的变形破坏全过程,确定该类采动滑坡形成的地质力学模式;研究滑坡滑动过程中的速度和能量变化以及堆积特征。研究表明:斜坡采动过程中,潜在滑面顺层滑移,后缘拉裂,裂纹从下往上向软弱面拓展,前缘坡脚处岩体形成锁固段,斜坡出现由前缘至后缘缘递减的蠕滑变形,随着斜坡进一步采动,锁固段发生剪切破坏,前缘坡体启动,中后部裂缝贯通—滑移,斜坡整体失稳破坏,形成牵引式采动滑坡,该类滑坡形成的地质力学模式可分为:滑移—拉裂—剪断3个阶段;对滑坡运动过程的模拟可知,采坑积水是小坝组受灾的关键转化因子。