The Impact of Mid- and High-Latitude Rossby Wave Activities on the Medium-Range Evolution of the EAP Pattern During the Pre-Rainy Period of South China

Based on the NCEP DOE AMIP II daily reanalysis data (1979{2005), the evolution of the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the pre-rainy period of South China is studied on the medium-range time scale. It is found that positive and negative EAP patterns share a similar generation process. In the middle and upper troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanating from the northeast Atlantic or Europe propagate toward East Asia along the Eurasian continent waveguide and finally give rise to the three anomaly centers of the EAP pattern over East Asia. Among the three anomaly centers, the western Pacific subtropical center appears the latest. Rossby wave packets propagate from the high latitude anomaly center toward the mid-latitude and the subtropical ones. The enhancement and maintenance of the subtropical anomaly center is closely associated with the subtropical jet waveguide and the incoming Rossby wave packets from the upstream. In the lower troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanate from the subtropical Asia toward East Asia. Positive and negative EAP patterns could not be regarded as "mirrors" to each other with simply re- versed phase. For the positive pattern, the positive height anomaly center around the Scandinavia Peninsula keeps its strength and position during the mature period, and the Rossby wave packets thus propagate persistently toward East Asia, facilitating a longer mature time of the positive pattern. As for the formation of the negative EAP pattern, however, the incoming Rossby wave energy from the upstream contributes to both the enhancement and southeastward movement of the negative anomaly belt from the Yenisei River to the Bering Strait and the positive anomaly center around Mongolia. At the peak time, the two anomlous circulations are evolved into the Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude anomaly centers of the negative pattern, respectively. The energy dispersion of Rossby wave packets is relatively fast due to the predominant zonal circulation in the extratropics, causing a shorter mature period of the negative pattern. During the pre-rainy period of South China, the prevalence of the EAP pattern signiˉcantly affects the rainfall over the region south of the Yangtze River. The positive (negative) EAP pattern tends to causepositive (negative) precipitation anomalies in that region. This is di?erent from the earlier research findingsbased on monthly mean data.     

A View of Earth System Model Development

This paper gives a definition of earth system model and shows three development phases of it, including physical climate system model, earth climate system model, and earth system model, based on an inves- tigation of climate system models in the world. It provides an expatiation on the strategic significance of future development of earth system model, an introduction of some representative scientific research plans on development of earth system model home and abroad, and a review of its status and trends based on the models of the fourth assessment report （AR4） ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. Some suggestions on future development of earth system model in China are given, which are expected to be helpful to advance the development.     

基于多指标综合指数的灾害性天气过程预评估方案

通过分析给出了一种基于多指标综合指数的灾害性天气过程预评估方案,提出预估应包含对灾害性天气过程本身程度预估和灾害影响预估两个部分。通过建立综合指数来描述灾害性天气过程本身的程度,利用历史和实时气象资料对综合指数进行计算,分别对灾害性天气过程进行历史分析和实时监测;通过列表法,对收集的历史和实时灾害影响资料进行解析,综合指数中组合要素的差异,可用于分析灾害的不同特征;最后利用历史统计情景、相似指数年份类比和中短期预报等三种方案,对灾害性天气进程和影响发展程度进行预估。并以湖北省2008年初持续低温雨雪冰冻过程为例进行具体说明,此次过程综合指数值位居历史第二位,约70年一遇,直接经济损失超过110亿元,是1951年以来冬季损失最大的一次气象灾害。     

一个区域地气耦合柱状模式的发展及其对半干旱区的模拟

在现有的区域气候模式的基础上构建了用于研究地气耦合模拟的区域柱状模式,其中包括了详细的物理过程,可以作为研究半干旱区地气相互作用过程的工具。通过区域柱状模式与不同陆面模式的耦合,检验了不同陆面模式在非耦合和耦合两种情况下对半干旱区的模拟性能。结果表明,陆面模式在耦合后对感热的模拟偏差放大,而潜热的模拟效果得到了改进,不同的陆面模式对区域柱状模式的模拟性能影响较大,耦合了CoLM后的区域柱状模式对地表气象要素的模拟得到了较大的改进。     

一次飑线过程的数值模拟及诊断分析

利用NCAR、NCEP和FSL/NOAA等共同研制的WRF中尺度数值模式,对2009年6月3日河南地区发生的一次飑线过程进行数值模拟,并利用模式输出的高分辨率资料对该次过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:WRF模式成功地再现了高低空环流形势演变及强对流的分布发展特征,高空冷涡后部冷空气南下,近地层较暖,形成了上冷下暖的位势不稳定层结及地面辐合线是这次强对流和飑线天气过程的触发机制。强对流发生时,该地区出现的低空增温增湿、低空急流的爆发及低层急流核向东南快传、高空急流轴稳定在强对流天气发生地上空,对流有效位能积累和释放随时间的演变过程及垂直螺旋度大值中心等对此次强对流天气过程有较好的指示意义。     

三维城市地表反射率计算模式

地表反射率是控制地表能量平衡的一个重要参数。城市建筑物的分布具有较大的不均一性,这不仅给地基观测城市地表反射率带来了很大困难,数值模拟城市地表反射率也是非常困难的。作者开发了一个三维城市地表反射率模式city_photo,该方法结合了蒙特卡洛方法和几何光学方法的优点,具有较高的精度和较快的计算速度。通过引入城市地图的概念,该模式能够计算具有不同结构的城市的地表反射率。2002至2004年晴空MODIS（MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer,中分辨率成像光谱辐射计）1~7通道可见光和近红外通道地表反射率资料被用来检验模式的有效性,位于北京朝阳区的中国科学院大气物理研究所的AERONET站点观测得到气溶胶光学特性和水汽资料,6S（Second Simulation of Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum）大气辐射传输模式被用来对其进行大气订正。模式计算的北京城市地表反射率个例与MODIS 7个通道地表反射率观测结果具有很高的相关性,相关系数在0.80~0.93之间,说明模式能够较好地模拟城市地表反射率随太阳和观测角度的变化情况。最后讨论了城市结构对城市地表反射率的影响。     

宝塔滑坡稳定性计算与评价

宝塔滑坡群是由多个滑体组成，本文着重阐述滑坡群中的主体─—宝塔滑坡的稳定性计算与评价。通过采用不平衡推力传递系数法，对宝塔滑坡各个可能滑动的滑动面进行多种方案的计算，以及长江库区水位对宝塔滑坡稳定性的影响。进而对宝塔滑坡作出了稳定性分析和评价，同时也阐明了宝塔滑坡所采用的计算模型的计算结果是切合实际的。     

The Origin of the Element Eu in Extremely Metal-poor Halo Stars

The fast neutron capture process (the r-process) occurs in the neutron-rich circumstance. However its concrete physical environment is not very clear. With recent progress in observations, many extremely metal-poor halo stars have been discovered. They have two characteristics: one is the overabundance of fast neutron elements with the relative abundance consistent with that of the sun; the other is that fast neutron element contents in stars at the same metal abundance have a very large dispersion. This provides a particular way to study the origin of the r-process. Simulation was used to study the galaxy's evolution process and the resulting dispersion of fast neutron nuclide contents in stars. The model of galaxy evolution obtained in this way not only contains spontaneous star formation in the gas region, but also includes the star formation excited by the supernova explosion. It is shown from our results that the supernovae at the low mass end should be the place producing the fast neutron nuclides. In addition, it is also shown that the non-uniformity of the galaxy evolution caused by the supernova explosion is not enough to explain the observed dispersion of fast neutron element contents in halo stars. This problem should be further studied.     

A Study on the Light Curves of GRBs

It is generally believed that the complexity and variability of the light curves of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are caused by the internal shocks, which would occur when a rapid shell catches up a slower one and collides with it. The electrons in the shock layer are heated by the shocks and radiate via the mechanisms of synchrotron radiation and inverse Compton scattering. Based on relativistic kinematics, a relation between the photon number of the emission from the rapidly moving shock layer and the number of the photons received by an observer is derived. Then, employing the angular spreading of the internal shock emission, the curve equation and profile of a single pulse are obtained, and the shape is typically in the shape of a fast rise and exponential decline. Furthermore, by using the model of the successive collisions of multiple shells under the condition of reasonable parameters, the observed light curves are fitted with a rather good effect. Therefore, by this means, more different types of light curves of GRBs can be explained.     

云南剑川金河岩体中地幔流体交代特征及其成矿意义

云南剑川金河岩体中的硅化霓辉正长斑岩含有较多的镁铁-超镁铁质深源岩石包体.岩相学研究表明,伴随交代蚀变,其主岩和各类包体岩石中普遍发育沿矿物粒间和矿物晶体裂隙或解离纹贯入或穿插的呈网状和细脉浸染状分布的黑色不透明物质.对该物质进行了电子探针及扫描电镜和能谱分析,发现其组成以微晶硅酸盐矿物为主,含少量微晶石英,尤其是含有微晶地幔标型矿物--含钛磁铁矿(或镜铁矿)和含铬自然铁;后两者与硅酸盐矿物构成超显微熔离结构交生.研究认为,这种物质组成和特征,是具超临界和熔浆性质的地幔流体的微观表现,其活动所引发的交代蚀变表现为硅化、钠化及深源包体中的暗色矿物由辉石→角闪石→黑云母的退变序列.这一地幔流体作用微观踪迹的揭示,对于分析和论证滇西地区新生代多金属成矿的深部地质作用规律具有重要的理论和现实意义.