Clustering stochastic point process model for flood risk analysis

Since the introduction into flood risk analysis, the partial duration series method has gained increasing acceptance as an appealing alternative to the annual maximum series method. However, when the base flow is low, there is clustering in the flood peak or flow volume point process. In this case, the general stochastic point process model is not suitable to risk analysis. Therefore, two types of models for flood risk analysis are derived on the basis of clustering stochastic point process theory in this paper. The most remarkable characteristic of these models is that the flood risk is considered directly within the time domain. The acceptability of different models are also discussed with the combination of the flood peak counted process in twenty years at Yichang station on the Yangtze river. The result shows that the two kinds of models are suitable ones for flood risk analysis, which are more flexible compared with the traditional flood risk models derived on the basis of annual maximum series method or the general stochastic point process theory. Received: September 29, 1997     

近场立交成因模式及强震预报

详细地讨论了强震孕育的近场立交成因模式,将其应用于强震的预报,并提出了强震预报的思路.作者还进一步讨论了横向断层对传播断层的止裂条件及深部断层的存在等问题.     

PHYSICAL PROCESS BASED SOIL EROSION MODEL IN A SMALL WATERSHED IN THE HILLY LOESS REGION

ＰＨＹＳＩＣＡＬＰＲＯＣＥＳＳＢＡＳＥＤＳＯＩＬＥＲＯＳＩＯＮＭＯＤＥＬＩＮＡＳＭＡＬＬＷＡＴＥＲＳＨＥＤＩＮＴＨＥＨＩＬＬＹＬＯＥＳＳＲＥＧＩＯＮ１ＣＡＩＱｉａｎｇｇｕｏ２ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＡｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌｐｒｏｃｅｓｂａｓｅｄｐｅｒｓｔｏｒｍ...     

天山第四纪冰川擦痕特征及分布规律

根据冰蚀痕迹的统计数据 ,着重讨论了天山高山地区冰岩界面形成过程和冰川擦痕分布规律。典型的冰碛岩一般有擦面和擦痕。冰川槽谷的横剖面上 ,从侧部向中部 ,擦痕密度逐渐增大 ,槽谷的谷壁向谷底的转折处是擦痕密度由小转大的突变点 (拐点 ) ,反映了磨蚀作用不断增强。而冰坎的擦痕密度则呈现较大的波动。冰坎迎冰面的粗大擦痕密度远比槽谷中的擦痕密度大。羊背石从顶部到侧部 ,擦痕密度由大变小     

Experimental study on the mechanism of non-synchronism of seismo-electromagnetic radiation precursors

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｒｏｕｇｈ２０－ｏｄｄｙｅａｒｓ’ｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｓｔｕｄｙａｆｔｅｒｔｈｅ１９７６Ｔａｎｇｓｈａｎｇｒｅａｔｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅ,ｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｏ－ｅｌｅｃｔｒｏｍａｇｎｅｔｉｃｒａｄｉａｔｉｏｎｐｒｅｃ...     

焦作矿区煤层气开发地质综合评价

应用层次分析法,从影响煤层气开发的各种地质条件出发,对矿区进行了综合地质评价,寻找出有利于煤层气开发的区域。     

用好ISO9000标准，确保土工试验质量

强调过程控制是ISO9000族标准的精华。深入领会ISO9000标准,通过转化分配用好ISO9000模式中每个要素的规定,是改进我公司土工试验生产过程管理,提高土工试验质量的保证。     

Extensional Tectonic System of Erlian Fault Basin Group and Its Deep Background

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＩｎｈｉｇｈｌｙｅｘｔｅｎｄｅｄｒｅｇｉｏｎｓ（β＞１．５－２）ｓｕｃｈａｓｔｈｅＢａｓｉｎａｎｄＲａｎｇｅＰｒｏｖｉｎｃｅａｎｄｐａｓｉｖｅｍａｒｇｉｎｓ,ｅｘｔｅｎｓｉｏｎａｌｔｅｃｔｏｎｉｃｓｙｓｔｅｍｉｓｃｈａｒａｃｔ...     

计算机技术与地矿工作信息化

地矿工作信息化已经成为时代的潮流。地矿工作信息化水平,也已经成为衡量地矿工作现代化程度的主要标志。地矿工作信息化工程的核心,是地质矿产信息系统建设,而主要技术手段是计算机应用。当前,计算机应用已经渗透到地质工作的全过程,成为地质工作新技术、新方法应用的主流,极大地推动了地矿工作的前进。地矿工作信息化领域的计算机应用涉及计算机技术领域的多个分支前缘。本文根据所掌握的几个主要方面的资料,评介了国内外计算机技术在地矿工作信息化领域的应用现状与发展趋势。     

Creep,stable sliding,and premonitory slip

Summary The current status of laboratory investigations into creep, stable sliding and premonitory slip is reviewed and some new material is presented. It is postulated that pre-cut rocks and those with simulated gouge layers undergo a transition with increasing confining pressure from (1) stable sliding to stick-slip, to (2) sliding along the pre-cut with deformation of the country rock, to (3) homogeneous flow of the specimen without slip along the pre-cut. Stick-slip behavior is not always present. Decreasing displacement rates are found to enhance stick-slip. Mixtures of gouge are found to be significant in controlling the behavior of sliding with 10–20 percent of anhydrite mixed with quartz or clays mixed with anhydrite shifting the sliding mode from stable stick-slip or stick-slip to stable sliding, respectively. Premonitory slip may be one of the most significant short term precursors of earthquakes. Although widely recognized in the laboratory, little systematic work has been completed. Variations in pore pressure, resistivity and seismic velocities have been investigated. Clearly much work needs to be done into these topics before a clear understanding is achieved.