Location and probability of shoal margin collapses in a sandy estuary

Channel bank failure, and collapses of shoal margins and beaches due to flow slides, have been recorded in Dutch estuaries for the past 200 years but have hardly been recognized elsewhere. Current predictions lack forecasting capabilities, because they were validated and calibrated for historic data of cross‐sections in specific systems, allowing local hindcast rather than location and probability forecasting. The objectives of this study were to investigate where on shoal margins collapses typically occur and what shoal margin collapse geometries and volumes are, such that we can predict their occurrence. We identified shoal margin collapses, generally completely submerged, from bathymetry data by analyzing digital elevation models of difference of the Western Scheldt for the period 1959–2015. We used the bathymetry data to determine the conditions for occurrence, specifically to obtain slope height and angle, and applied these variables in a shoal margin collapse predictor. We found 299 collapses along 300 km of shoal margin boundaries over 56 years, meaning that more than five collapses occur on average per year. The average shoal margin collapse body is well approximated by a 1/3 ellipsoid shape, covers on average an area of 34 000 m² and has an average volume of 100 000 m³. Shoal margin collapses occur mainly at locations where shoals take up a proportionally larger area than average in the cross‐section of the entire estuary, and occur most frequently where lateral shoal margin displacement is low. A receiver operating characteristic curve shows that the forecasting method predicts the shoal margin collapse location well. We conclude that the locations of the shoal margin collapses are well predicted by the variation in conditions of the relative slope height and angle within the Western Scheldt, and likely locations are at laterally relatively stable shoal margins. This provides hypotheses aiding the recognition of these features in sandy estuaries worldwide. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

滦平盆地西瓜园组中段厚层砾岩沉积特征及成因机制研究:来自滦页1井全井段连续取心的证据

为了探讨陆相断陷盆地厚层砾岩的沉积特征、成因机制和控制因素,寻找有利勘探目标,以滦平盆地西瓜园组中段厚层砾岩为研究对象,运用沉积学理论,结合测井、录井、岩心、薄片和测试结果,对厚层砾岩的岩相及岩相组合、沉积构造和电性进行分析。研究表明,西瓜园组中段厚层砾岩具有被黑色页岩包裹的特征,即顶、底部与黑色页岩突变接触。岩心中大量的黄铁矿和部分敏感元素指标反映了缺氧的强还原环境,表明其为深水环境中的砾岩体。基于不同成因,共识别出滑动、滑塌2种重力流类型。滑动沉积主要包括6种岩相、5种岩相组合,以主滑动面、次滑动面、高角度层理,以及层内小型正断层和逆断层为主要识别标志;滑塌沉积包括6种岩相、4种岩相组合,以滑动面、滑塌变形构造、包卷层理、泄水构造、变形砾以及部分原生层理(粒序层理)为主要识别标志。根据滑动面的发育位置、自然伽马曲线和声波曲线的幅度变化特征,可以划分出4期滑动沉积。西瓜园组时期滦平盆地的边缘坡折带、物源供给和一定的触发机制共同控制深水滑动、滑塌型重力流的形成,结合控制因素和沉积特征建立陆相断陷湖盆陡坡带滑动-滑塌型重力流的发育模式。     

强风化软硬互层岩质高边坡监测与数值模拟

强风化软硬互层岩质高边坡属岩质边坡特殊情况,其结构面组成及性质复杂,与支护结构相互作用的复杂程度较高,相互影响较大,顺倾结构面临空等情况下破坏可能性很大。以兰永一级公路某深挖路堑边坡的治理工程为依托,对边坡支护过程中及支护结束后的锚杆应力、锚索内力、坡体位移进行了原位监测,并利用岩土分析软件PLAXIS,采用节理岩模块对该边坡工程进行了数值模拟分析。监测及模拟结果表明：该边坡由节理裂隙与岩层面形成折线形潜在滑面,且具有相同滑动可能性的潜在滑面不止一个;支护结构穿透组成滑面折线的任何折线段部分均对结构面稳定有显著影响,但支护结构穿透泥岩面对结构面的影响较穿透节理裂隙更大;支护锚索预应力变化具有一定规律,预应力变化过程对坡体位移及支护结构内力具有一定影响;坡体的主动变形对支护结构内力的影响较坡体被动变形大,结构面产生滑动趋势对坡面位移影响的敏感程度较支护结构内力影响的敏感程度低。该边坡支护稳定,支护设计合理,可为同类边坡支护设计提供相应建议。     

老滑坡路段路堑开挖与超前支护效果

为防止老滑坡路段路堑开挖过程中出现路堑边坡失稳的问题,以在建某高速公路老滑坡段路堑失稳边坡为例,借助数值分析,进行了老滑坡路段路堑开挖与超前支护效果研究。结果表明：1）一般宽平台开挖模式能提高边坡的整体稳定性;然而,对于存在具有膨胀性质滑带土的牵引式老滑坡,坡脚采用宽平台刷坡减重不利于路堑边坡的稳定,必须要采取超前支护,如锚索、抗滑桩等,必要时要紧急采取清方卸载措施。2）锚索超前支护能够有效抑制边坡变形,需采用有效措施提高设置在坡脚处锚索的抗拉强度,如施加预应力等。3）抗滑桩超前支护应注意桩位、桩长、桩距的优化设计。建议抗滑桩采用锚拉,对桩前坡体中的滑带进行超前注浆,有必要沿老滑坡主滑方向布置多排抗滑桩,或采用h型桩体设计。     

Effects of rainfall,geomorphological and geometrical variables on vulnerability of the lower Mississippi River levee system to slump slides

This study investigated the importance of rainfall and various geomorphological and geometrical factors to the vulnerability of earthen levees to slump slides. The study was performed using a database including 34 slump slides that occurred in the lower Mississippi River levee system from 2008 to 2009. The impact of rainfall within the six months prior to slide occurrence was studied for 23 slides for which an accurate occurrence date was available. Several variables were used to develop a logistic regression model to predict the probability of slump slide occurrence. The proposed model was verified for both slide and non-slide cases. The regression analysis depicts the impact of channel width, river sinuosity index, riverbank erosion, channel shape condition and distance to river. Excluding the sinuosity index, the impact of the other independent variables examined was found to be significant. Occurrence of riverbank erosion around the slide locations was the most significant predictor factor. A channel width of less than 1000?m was ranked as the second most significant variable. The proposed model can aid in locating high-risk areas on levees in order to take prompt protective measures, increase monitoring efforts and enable early response under emergency conditions.     

芦山地震崩滑灾害空间分布及相关问题探讨

由于逆断层作用,2013年芦山M_S 7.0地震诱发的崩滑地质灾害分布表现出了明显的上盘效应与方向效应。在震后应急科考中未发现发震断层的地表破裂带,然而灾区大量出现的地震诱发滑坡、崩塌,加之密集的余震分布、地震烈度调查结果等,提供了确定芦山地震宏观震中、地震动错动方向以及研究地震发震构造等的诸多线索。 统计结果表明,芦山地震诱发的滑坡、崩塌具有明显的优势滑动方向（135°～144°）,该方向揭示了地震断层的错动方向,与震源机制解反映的一致,大体垂直于发震断层的走向;从地震诱发崩塌、滑坡灾害点的分布与密度判断,宏观震中位于宝盛乡北,在仪器记录震中东北约3.6km处;从余震群分布、地震诱发滑坡分布特点及地震等烈度线等,结合以往强震如汶川地震等的调查经验,推测当震级足够大时,发震断层地表破裂带可能通过地质灾害、余震密集区东侧的边缘地带,总体平行于双石-大川断裂。另外,通过分析地层岩性与崩滑地形条件之间的关联性,发现崩滑灾害在某些地层岩性中易发,灾害点呈线性排列的原因是不同地层岩性之间抗风化能力的差异性,造成在地层分界线上形成线性陡崖或高坡度地带,使之在强震作用下容易发生崩塌、滑坡。     

Evolution of a debris-rock slide causing a natural dam: the flash flood of Río Santa Cruz,Province of San Juan—November 12, 2005

Between 2001 and 2005, a large debris rock slide occurred on the western slope of the Cordillera de Santa Cruz in the southeast Andean corner of the Province of San Juan (31°40′ S–70°16′ W). The landslide material accumulated in a downstream gorge as a natural dam of the Santa Cruz river, forming a large-volume lake. In November 2005, probably as a result of the increasing pressure of the water volume, this natural dam breached off with a violent and unexpected flash flood. In addition to life-threatening instances lived by some people downstream, this flood caused great economic loss to main localities of the Department of Calingasta, as well as considerable damage to one of the most relevant projects of the Province, the Caracoles Hydropower Project dam on the San Juan river. Considering the high costs of any physical remediation for a natural dam located in this high, remote, and inaccessible mountain area with no reliable road access, the main protective measures left to be pondered are the installation of a flash-flood early-warning system connected to downstream localities, along with a program of hydrological monitoring at the dam-forming area and annual satellital monitoring to verify the evolution of accumulated mass movements.     

Three‐dimensional Evolutionary Models of the Qiongxi Structures,Southwestern Sichuan Basin,China: Evidence from Seismic Interpretation and Geomorphology

Fold terminations are key features in the study of compressional fault-related folds. Such terminations could be due to loss of displacement on the thrust fault or/and forming a lateral or oblique ramp. Thus, high-quality seismic data would help unambiguously define which mechanism should be responsible for the termination of a given fault-related fold. The Qiongxi and Qiongxinan structures in the Sichuan Basin, China are examples of natural fault-propagation folds that possess a northern termination and a structural saddle between them. The folds/fault geometry and along-strike displacement variations are constrained by the industry 3-D seismic volume. We interpret that the plunge of the fold near the northern termination and the structural saddle are due to the loss of displacement along strike. The fault geometry associated with the northern termination changes from a flat-ramp at the crest of the Qiongxinan structure, where displacement is the greatest, to simply a ramp near the northern tip of the Qiongxi structure, without forming a lateral or oblique ramp. In this study, we also use the drainage pattern, embryonic structure preserved in the crest of the Qiongxinan structure and the assumption that displacement along a fault is proportional to the duration of thrusting to propose a model for the lateral propagation of the Qiongxinan and Qiongxi structures. Specifically, we suggest that the structure first initiated as an isolated fault ramp within brittle units. With increased shortening, the fault grows to link with lower detachments in weaker shale units to create a hybridized fault-propagation fold. Our model suggests a possible explanation for the lateral propagation history of the Qiongxinan and Qiongxi structures, and also provides an alternative approach to confirming the activity of the previous Pingluoba structure in the southwestern Sichuan Basin in the late Cenozoic.     

卡尔曼滤波在滑坡监测中的应用

针对滑波变形的特点,将滑坡体上的监测点视为一运动点场,提出一种以运动方程为核心、以卡尔曼滤波技术为工具的变形观测数据处理方法,使滑坡的预报成为可能.     

虚拟钻孔控制的地质剖面图构建算法与实现

地质剖面图构建采用的数据源多为钻孔数据,对于构建过程中的地层尖灭、剖面图光滑处理等问题的相应算法应用较为复杂,稳定性与健壮性不尽如人意。针对这些问题,本文提出一种虚拟钻孔控制的地质剖面图构建算法。首先,根据地层尖灭处理策略构建其虚拟钻孔;其次,依据细分光滑策略采用4 点插值细分算法构建其虚拟钻孔;然后,对地层线要素进行多边形拓扑重建,构建地层多边形实体;最后,综合各项地质剖面图制图要素进行整饰输出。本文将虚拟钻孔引入地质剖面图构建的各个环节中作为算法中间单元,有效简化了建模算法实现过程,确保了算法的稳定性与高效性。实例表明,采用本文算法所构建的地质剖面图能正确反映研究区域的地质构造,增加了细分次数,可明显提高出图平滑效果。