Sediment movement under unidirectional flows: an assessment of empirical threshold curves

A selection of threshold data sets from previous investigations is used to re-examine, selectively, some of the empirical curves that are most commonly used for the prediction of sediment threshold. Simple analytical formulae are derived describing single line curves for mean threshold values and envelopes for the initial movement of discrete particles and the commencement of mass sediment transport phases of the critical condition.The complexity of factors governing the prevailing conditions at threshold, together with the randomness of events, limits deterministic solutions; however, the curves provide an approach that can be used readily in practical applications. In contrast, the envelope presentation is more of a stochastic approach to the definition of threshold. It recognises that there is no definitive threshold condition under which a particular particle size can be displaced, but rather that a range of threshold values exist.The empirical threshold relationships were derived on the basis of a relatively large amount of data. However, the sources utilised have interpreted the ‘critical condition’ in various ways, implying that the formulae must be treated with caution in applications.     

岩石地球化学图解信息分析辅助系统的研究与开发

在岩石地球化学理论的框架下,用该领域专家在实际工作中的思维方法来描述岩石地球化学数据处理与分析的固有流程,以岩石地球化学参数和图解为应用研究对象,利用岩石地球化学与计算机软件技术交叉的研究方法,概括岩石地球化学数据的特征及其处理方法。通过对双变量图解、三变量图解特征的分析,将数据计算分为主量和微量元素相关参数计算、主量和微量元素标准矿物计算、同位素相关计算,设计合理、有效的算法,实现岩石地球化学图解的数据管理、分类、参数选择与计算、表达式识别、绘制、坐标转换、投点等图解成图全过程的自动化。     

2011年江苏南部两场大暴雨对比分析

利用高分辨率的加密气象自动站资料、FY2D卫星资料、多普勒雷达资料、常规观测资料以及6 h 1次的NCEP再分析资料等,对2011年6月18日和2011年7月18日江苏地区分别发生在梅雨期开始阶段和结束阶段的两场暴雨进行中尺度天气系统演变和雷达回波参数等特征的对比分析。结果表明:(1)6月18日的天气形势是典型的梅雨期降水形势,在梅雨锋附近产生了区域性暴雨。水汽输送主要是对流层中低层的西南暖湿气流。7月18日的局地暴雨则是出现在低压倒槽顶端右侧的偏东气流中。(2)两次暴雨过程强降水发生前都存在对流层低层辐合快速增强的过程。7月18日暴雨强降水发生前散度值下降则更为迅速。(3)两次暴雨过程中强降水区都出现在地面辐合系统附近的东北气流中,且随着地面辐合系统移动。(4)两次暴雨过程都出现了T_BB低于-62℃的强对流云团。(5)6月18日,与多个线性排列的"逆风区"对应的强回波中心形成了"列车效应";7月18日,对流回波带上单体不断流入,在低空急流左前端合并成团状强对流区,分别是形成两次暴雨的重要原因。     

北京城市化发展对大气边界层特性的影响

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理与大气化学国家重点实验室的北京325 m气象塔1993年～2003年夏季 (7月～9月) 的观测资料, 统计分析了各年的风速与温度廓线分布特征。统计分析结果表明, 随着城市化的发展, 相对风速有逐年减小的趋势, 并且越靠近地面, 相对风速的减小越明显, 这反映了城市建筑对近地面层空气流动的摩擦作用。对风速廓线进行线性拟合得到风速随高度的垂直递增率, 发现无论是100 m以下的近地面层还是较高层, 风速的垂直递增率都随城市化发展存在逐年增大的趋势, 表明粗糙下垫面的影响已经向高层扩展。根据温度廓线计算了各年的温度垂直递减率, 发现其有增大的趋势, 这表明城市化发展对边界层热力结构同样有显著影响。本文还依据统计整理得到的近中性层结下的风速廓线资料, 利用莫宁-奥布霍夫相似理论计算了下垫面的空气动力学参数, 结果表明, 地表粗糙度、 零平面位移随着城市化发展皆有明显增加的趋势。同时, 分析了各空气动力学参数与平均风速及无量纲风速的关系。其中, 摩擦速度和平均风速二者基本成正相关, 且摩擦速度随平均风速的增大而增大的趋势越发明显。本文研究结果对研究城市化发展对区域大气边界层结构、 气候和环境影响有参考意义, 可为城市大气边界层模式和区域气候模式提供参数化依据。     

四川上空大气可降水量时空分布特征

本文利用94个气象台站30 a地面湿度参量资料,采用通过地面水汽压计算大气可降水量的经验公式,分析了四川上空大气可降水量时空分布特征,初步评估了四川地区的空中水资源。结果表明:(1)四川地区空中水资源十分丰富,开发潜力巨大:东部盆地区全年大气可降水量为1178.11 cm、降水效率8.98%;西部高山高原区全年大气可降水量为321.06 cm、降水效率21.16%。(2)大气可降水量和降水效率空间分布明显不均匀,东部盆地区大气可降水量远远高于西部高山高原区,降水效率则是西部高山高原区高于东部盆地区。(3)大气可降水量季节变化明显,一年之中夏季最多,秋季次之,冬季最少。西部高山高原区大气可降水量季节差异尤其显著。(4)30 a来,大气可降水量波动略呈线性增多,大气可降水量年际变化小。     

页岩油资源定量评价中关键参数的选取与校正——以松辽盆地北部青山口组为例

页岩油资源评价过程中,常用热解参数(S1)反映含油性。由于实验关系,所测得的S1存在轻烃、重烃的损失,为更准确的对页岩油资源进行定量评价,本文通过有机质成烃动力学研究以及对样品抽提前后的热解参数进行对比,对S1进行轻、重烃补偿校正,获得泥页岩总含油率参数,根据泥页岩排烃门限确定其可动油含量参数(S1/TOC)。研究结果表明,松辽盆地北部青山口组泥页岩S1校正前后相差2~3倍,排烃门限对应的S1/TOC=75mg/g TOC,结合黏土矿物含量(表征可压裂性),优选出页岩油勘探开发有利区:青一段有利区主要集中在齐家古龙凹陷中北部及龙虎泡大安阶地中部,青二、三段集中在龙虎泡大安阶地中部与齐家古龙凹陷中南部。     

Investigating the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in SWAT model under climate change

ABSTRACT

There is an implicit assumption in most work that the parameters calibrated based on observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. However, this might not be true due to parameter instability. This paper investigates the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in a hydrological model under climate change. Parameter transferability is investigated with three parameter sets identified for different climatic conditions, which are: wet, intermediate and dry. A parameter set based on the baseline period (1961–1990) is also investigated for comparison. For uncertainty analysis, a k-simulation set approach is proposed instead of employing the traditional optimization method which uses a single best-fit parameter set. The results show that the parameter set from the wet sub-period performs the best when transferred into wet climate condition, while the parameter set from the baseline period is the most appropriate when transferred into dry climate condition. The largest uncertainty of simulated daily high flows for 2011–2040 is from the parameter set trained in the dry sub-period, while that of simulated daily medium and low flows lies in the parameter set from the intermediate calibration sub-period. For annual changes in the future period, the uncertainty with the parameter set from the intermediate sub-period is the largest, followed by the wet sub-period and dry sub-period. Compared with high and medium flows/runoffs, the uncertainty of low flows/runoffs is much smaller for both simulated daily flows and annual runoffs. For seasonal runoffs, the largest uncertainty is from the intermediate sub-period, while the smallest is from the dry sub-period. Apart from that, the largest uncertainty can be observed for spring runoffs and the lowest one for autumn runoffs. Compared with the traditional optimization method, the k-simulation set approach shows many more advantages, particularly being able to provide uncertainty information to decision support for watershed management under climate change.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

歧口凹陷深层地震岩石物理特征分析及应用

为明确歧口凹陷深层的岩石物理及AVO响应特征,分析歧口地区全波测井资料,优选该区敏感岩石物理参数;根据分岩性拟合求取纵横波转换经验公式,并采用流体置换原理进行叠前地震道集正演后提取AVO属性.结果表明:泊松比、纵横波速度比为该区有利储层预测的敏感参数,含气砂岩与含水砂岩的数值范围差异明显;歧口深层AVO响应特征可划分为3类:第一类是与气层相对应的反射振幅随着偏移距的增大而负向急剧增大;第二类是与油气同层相对应的反射振幅随着偏移距的增大而负向缓慢增大;第三类是与油水层及干层相对应的反射振幅随着偏移距的增大而负向减小.该结果可为歧口凹陷深层开展流体预测可行性提供依据.     

The Characteristics and Controlling Factors of Water and Heat Exchanges over the Alpine Wetland in the East of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Alpine wetland is one of the typical underlying surfaces on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. It plays a crucial role in runoff regulation. Investigations on the mechanisms of water and heat exchanges are necessary to understand the land surface processes over the alpine wetland. This study explores the characteristics of hydro-meteorological factors with in situ observations and uses the Community Land Model 5 to identify the main factors controlling water and heat exchanges.Latent heat flux and therm...     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL PARAMETER DATABASE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF UNIT POPULATION DATABASE

Now GIS is turning into a good tool in handling geographical, economical, and population data, so we can obtain more and more information from these data. On the other hand, in some cases, for a calamity, such as hurricane, earthquake, flood, drought etc., or a decision-making, such as setting up a broadcasting transmitter, building a chemical plant etc., we have to evaluate the total population in the region influenced by a calamity or a project. In this paper, a method is put forward to evaluate the population in such special region. Through exploring the correlation of geographical parameters and the distribution of people in the same region by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, unit population database (1km× 1km) is established. In this way, estimating the number of people in a special region is capable by adding up the population in every grid involved in this region boundary. The geographical parameters are obtained from topographic database and DEM database on the scale of