基于已知钻孔的场地类别模糊等值线的建立

对照现行《建筑抗震设计规范》（GB50011-2001）场地类别划分方法,应用模糊数学原理,推导了场地类别的模糊二次评价方法,得出了场地类别的模糊向量和模糊特征周期,实现了场地类别划分的连续化;在此基础上,基于收集到的杭州市254个建筑场地波速钻孔实测资料,通过建立场地类别地质模型,实现了场地类别、特征周期的模糊等值线,与实测资料对比,结果表明：由该模糊等值线得出的建筑场地抗震类别与现行《建筑抗震设计规范》给出的场地类别是统一的,模糊特征周期与规范给出的特征周期基本上是吻合的,该模糊等值线对建筑抗震设计具有指导意义。     

中国海相探矿权区块定量评价方法

在研究了我国海相油气探矿权区块基本油气地质条件、勘探程度、技术经济条件等要素和特点的基础上,给出了48个评价参数和归一化取值参照表,建立了探矿权区块评价工作流程、评分参数及计算公式。提出对我国海相勘探层探矿权区块评价应该注意:与国外海相碳酸盐岩评价的差别;与国内陆相碎屑岩评价的差别;成藏组合的划分;评价内容的有效性、不确定性和评价参数的可信度;成败经验的总结和勘探程度的研究。     

靖远矿区采煤沉陷区复垦综合评价方法研究

以靖远矿区为例,从土地复垦和恢复生态学的角度出发,建立了靖远矿区采煤沉陷区复垦综合评价系统,选择土壤条件（土层厚度、土壤质地、有机质含量、土壤水分）、地形改造条件（地面坡度、地表破坏程度、改造难易程度）、气候及水文条件（年降雨量、灌溉条件）作为分类及评价因子对复垦潜力进行评价。将采煤沉陷地分为四种潜力区,对每种潜力类型区的复垦开发利用方向进行了优化设计,从理论上和实践上对靖远矿区采煤沉陷地的复垦能力以及复垦过程中用地结构的优化作了探讨,以期对当地沉陷地的复垦提供一定的科学依据。     

Overbreak and underbreak in underground openings Part 2: causes and implications

Summary The newly developed light sectioning method has been used to investigate some of the causes and costs of overbreak and underbreak. Investigations at the Aquamilpa Hydroelectric Project in Mexico have shown decreased overbreak and increased underbreak as a result of increased rock quality and decreased explosive energy. A new measure of explosive energy, the perimeter powder factor (PPF), has been defined and shown to be useful in the context of tunnel-wall rock damage. Tentative results indicate that explosive energy (PPF) may be a more important factor in producing underbreak, whereas rock quality may be a greater factor in producing overbreak. A site-specific equation is given for predicting overbreak or underbreak as a function of rock quality and explosive energy, with an evaluation of the cost of underbreak and overbreak.     

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.     

Estimation of statistical parameters for censored lognormal hydraulic conductivity measurements

Field tests of hydraulic conductivity (e.g., injection test, pumping test, etc.) in low permeability formations are subject to censoring due to the detection limit of the instruments used. An iterative method of estimating the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data with a presumed log-normal distribution function is presented. This method accounts for the data that are actually below the lower detection limit (called truncated data) and thus gives distribution parameters that are more representative for the underlying distribution. The proposed method is then tested on two simulated normally distributed random datasets having different variances. The results show that the means and variances estimated by the proposed method are very accurate. Finally, the method is used to estimate the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data from single hole water injection tests in a fractured geological formation.     

Blind prediction of the site effects at Ashigara Valley,Japan, and its comparison with reality

Weak and strong ground motions were numerically predicted for three stations of the Ashigara Valley test site. The prediction was based on the records from a rock-outcrop station, one weak-motion record from a surface-sediments station, and the standard geotechnical model. The data were provided by the Japanese Working Group on the Effects of Surface Geology as a part of an international experiment. The finite-difference method for SH waves in a 2-D linear viscoelastic medium (a causalQ model) was employed.Comparison with the real records shows that at two stations the predictions fit better than at the third one. Strangely, the two better predictions were for stations situated at larger distances from the reference rock station (one station was on the surface, the other in a borehole). The strong ground motion (the peak acceleration of about 200 cm s^–2) was not predicted qualitatively worse than the weak motion (8 cm s^–2). A less sophisticated second prediction (not submitted during the experiment), in which we did not attempt to fit the available weak-motion record at the sedimentary station, agrees with the reality significantly better.     

Information structure analysis for quantitative assessment of mineral resources and the discovery of a silver deposit

We propose an information-structure-analysis (ISA) method to quantify the correlations between quantitative and qualitative variables as well as within each type of variable. This method is applied to the evaluation of mineral resources in the western Zheijiang Province of China. The district contains a number of silver-bearing Fe–Cu–Pb–Zn mineral deposits near igneous complexes and FeCuPbZn zones away from the complexes. Silver anomalies occur not only in the known Fe–Cu–Zn–Pb deposits, but also in the country rock, suggesting the possible existence of silver deposits far from the igneous complexes.The tonnage distribution of silver is modeled by Monte Carlo simulation. This simulation is conducted on the basis of the correlations between silver (Ag) and lead (Pb), since no known data on silver is available. The known tonnage distribution of lead in 11 control cells was used to approximate the tonnage distribution of silver in the Monte Carlo simulation. With ISA and Monte Carlo methods, the total amount of potential polymetallic resources in 49 cells in the western Zhejiang Provice is predicted. Significantly, a deposit with about 24 tonnes of silver has been found within our exploration target area.     

首都减灾圈的思考与建议

首都减灾圈,系首都减轻自然灾害预测防治圈。1991年12月20—21日在北京召开了《首都圈自然灾害及其减灾对策研讨会》。本文根据这次会议所提供的材料,在从整体上实现减灾的思想指导下,就首都减灾圈的“成灾背景”、“首都减灾圈的组成”、“首都减灾圈的灾害预测与防治状况”、“首都减灾圈的灾害关联性分析”、“首都减灾圈的减灾实效预估”和“首都减灾圈的减灾对策与实施”等六个带有共同性的问题,进行了讨论。供制定首都圈减灾方案时参考。     

Intrinsic sample methods for mineral exploration and resource assessment

We report on an objective methodology, referred to as intrinsic sample methodology, for the delineation of exploration target areas or resource areas for assessment. Important features of the methodology include (1) identification of recognition criteria for critical genetic factors, (2) synthesis of new variables from enhanced geodata, (3) estimation of logit probability models, and (4) cutting of estimated logit probabilities to delineate exploration targets or resource areas. The methodology is demonstrated on the Walker Lake quadrangle of Nevada and California.