SARS疫情控制的模拟分析

应用系统动力学模型，定量地分析“早发现、早隔离、早治疗”措施，对于控制SARS疾病扩散与传播的重要性。结果表明，“得病后入院时间”与“隔离措施强度”对于SARS疫情态势发展，具有很大的敏感性与相关性，其中得病后的患者几时去医院治疗，对于疫情的控制具有更重要的意义。同时应用动力学模型，对北京的SARS疫情进行分时间段的模拟与SARS实施控制因素影响分析，结果表明，2003—04—20以后一段时间内实行的各种控制措施，以及5月1日—5月5日的长假对于北京SARS疫情的控制是非常有效的；而4月27日左右北京市社     

Determining the size of spatial clusters in focused tests: Comparing two methods by means of simulation in a GIS

 Based on a four-point evaluation system consisting of accuracy, consistency, power, and chance to commit type I errors, this study compares Tango's minimum p (MinP) and Stone's maximum relative risk (MaxRR) methods for detecting focused cluster size through simulations in GIS. It reveals that the MinP method is more effective than the MaxRR method. The MinP method exhibits higher levels of accuracy and consistency; and its power and chance to commit type I errors are similar to the MinP method. The MaxRR method has a tendency to underestimate the cluster size, while the MinP method tends to overestimate the cluster size, particularly when the clusters are relatively big and have high relative risk levels. In addition, the MinP method seems to be most effective in revealing the size of clusters when clusters are neither too strong nor too weak. The lowest detection rates for clustering occur when the clustering signal is relatively weak, which is easily understandable. In practice, it might be useful to use both the methods to estimate a range of possible cluster sizes, where the MaxRR method indicates the lower estimate, while the MinP method gives the higher estimate of the cluster size. Received: 24 August 2002 / Accepted: 20 December 2002     

Toward micro-scale spatial modeling of gentrification

 A simple preliminary model of gentrification is presented. The model is based on an irregular cellular automaton architecture drawing on the concept of proximal space, which is well suited to the spatial externalities present in housing markets at the local scale. The rent gap hypothesis on which the model's cell transition rules are based is discussed. The model's transition rules are described in detail. Practical difficulties in configuring and initializing the model are described and its typical behavior reported. Prospects for further development of the model are discussed. The current model structure, while inadequate, is well suited to further elaboration and the incorporation of other interesting and relevant effects. Received: 1 November 2001 / Accepted: 12 April 2002 Town centres data were made available by kind permission of the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions.     

基于GIS和SD方法的社会经济发展与生态环境响应动态模拟预测研究

在着重于空间现象分析处理的GIS与动态模拟的SD方法结合的模式下,动态模拟预测了不同社会经济发展策略对生态环境的影响,揭示了生态经济系统社会经济发展与生态环境相互影响关系,为区域可持续发展提供决策支持服务。     

水下无源导航系统仿真匹配算法研究

针对水下无源导航(地形辅助导航)系统的特点,充分利用各种海洋地理特征传感器获取信息,进行数据预处理、算法分析、性能评估,然后进行智能数据融合,进而完成水下无源导航系统模块化的仿真设计,为水下无源导航系统的进一步研究提供可行的方法和技术。仿真结果表明,采用水下地形匹配辅助导航,能够有效地修正惯导误差达到设计要求,为真实海洋环境下的精确导航提供可靠的技术依据。     

飞行物体虚拟环境仿真系统的研究

概述了飞行物体虚拟环境仿真系统包含的主要技术，重点讨论了虚拟环境中视景系统构建的关键问题，如场景建模、模型驱动及视点的控制与变换等。     

海岸海洋潮流模拟可视化与虚拟现实建模

潮流数值模拟的科学可视化与虚拟现实是海岸海洋科学研究重要的现代技术手段之一。首先从地理信息系统的角度对潮流数值模拟系统的数据模型进行了论述，提出了适合水文数值模拟的对象模型方法；其次探讨了空间流场的可视化技术，阐述了虚拟现实在潮流数值模拟中的作用；最后设计并实现了一个海岸海洋潮流模拟虚拟现实的原型软件系统VRO－cean,并在南黄海辐射沙洲等的潮流数值模拟试验中进行了实际对比检验。     

The assimilation of spectral sensing and the WOFOST model for the dynamic simulation of cadmium accumulation in rice tissues

The accurate detection of heavy metal-induced stress on crop growth is important for food security and agricultural, ecological and environmental protection. Spectral sensing offers an efficient and undamaged observation tool to monitor soil and vegetation contamination. This study proposed a methodology for dynamically estimating the total cadmium (Cd) accumulation in rice tissues by assimilating spectral information into WOFOST (World Food Study) model. Based on the differences among ground hyperspectral data of rice in three experiments fields under different Cd concentration levels, the spectral indices MCARI1, NREP and RH were selected to reflect the rice stress condition and dry matter production of rice. With assimilating these sensitive spectral indices into the WOFOST + PROSPECT + SAIL model to optimize the Cd pollution stress factor f_wi, the dynamic dry matter production processes of rice were adjusted. Based on the relation between dry matter production and Cd accumulation, we dynamically simulating the Cd accumulation in rice tissues. The results showed that the method performed well in dynamically estimating the total amount of Cd accumulation in rice tissues with R² over 85%. This study suggests that the proposed method of integrating the spectral information and the crop growth model could successfully dynamically simulate the Cd accumulation in rice tissues.     

Comparative study on two methods for calculating the gravitational potential of a prism

The determination of the gravitational potential of a prism plays an important role in physical geodesy and geophysics. However, there are few literatures that provide accurate approaches for determining the gravitational potential of a prism. Discrete element method can be used to determine the gravitational potential of a prism, and can approximate the true gravitational potential values with sufficient accuracy (the smaller each element is, the more accurate the result is). Although Nagy’s approach provided a closed expression, one does not know whether it is valid, due to the fact that this approach has not been confirmed in literatures. In this paper, a study on the comparison of Nagy’s approach with discrete element method is presented. The results show that Nagy’s formulas for determining the gravitational potential of a prism are valid in the domain both inside and outside the prism.     

Forward simulation of gravity for crustal structure of Xiachayu-Gonghe profile in eastern Tibetan plateau

The crustal structure of Xiachayu-Gonghe geophysical profile in eastern Tibetan plateau is simulated with Bouguer anomaly corrected for sediments and lithosphere. The forward simulation shows that the thickness of upper crust in eastern Tibetan plateau is about 20 km, and the density is 2.78×103kg/m3. The bottom interface of middle crust changes from 30 km to 40 km, the density of middle crust is 2.89×103kg/m3. The materials with low density of 2.78 ×103kg/m3 exist in middle crust, and those with high density of 3.33 ×103kg/m3 exist at the bottom of middle crust between Wenquan and Tanggemu. The density is 3.10 ×103kg/m3 in lower crust. The shallowest depth of Moho interface is about 56 km, and the deepest one is about 74 km, the undulation of interface is large, the deep Moho is located in Xiachayu, Chayu, Nujiang, and Wenquan. The crustal density of eastern Tibetan plateau is larger than that of central section; the low velocity layers are located in middle crust and bottom in eastern Tibetan plateau and at the bottom of the upper crust in the central plateau.