EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FRESHWATERS OF ARCTIC AND SUBARCTIC NORTH AMERICA

Region 2 comprises arctic and subarctic North America and is underlain by continuous or discontinuous permafrost. Its freshwater systems are dominated by a low energy environment and cold region processes. Central northern areas are almost totally influenced by arctic air masses while Pacific air becomes more prominent in the west, Atlantic air in the east and southern air masses at the lower latitudes. Air mass changes will play an important role in precipitation changes associated with climate warming. The snow season in the region is prolonged resulting in long-term storage of water so that the spring flood is often the major hydrological event of the year, even though, annual rainfall usually exceeds annual snowfall. The unique character of ponds and lakes is a result of the long frozen period, which affects nutrient status and gas exchange during the cold season and during thaw. GCM models are in close agreement for this region and predict temperature increases as large as 4°C in summer and 9°C in winter for a 2 × CO₂ scenario. Palaeoclimate indicators support the probability that substantial temperature increases have occurred previously during the Holocene. The historical record indicates a temperature increase of > 1°C in parts of the region during the last century. GCM predictions of precipitation change indicate an increase, but there is little agreement amongst the various models on regional disposition or magnitude. Precipitation change is as important as temperature change in determining the water balance. The water balance is critical to every aspect of hydrology and limnology in the far north. Permafrost close to the surface plays a major role in freshwater systems because it often maintains lakes and wetlands above an impermeable frost table, which limits the water storage capabilities of the subsurface. Thawing associated with climate change would, particularly in areas of massive ice, stimulate landscape changes, which can affect every aspect of the environment. The normal spring flooding of ice-jammed north-flowing rivers, such as the Mackenzie, is a major event, which renews the water supply of lakes in delta regions and which determines the availability of habitat for aquatic organisms. Climate warming or river damming and diversion would probably lead to the complete drying of many delta lakes. Climate warming would also change the characteristics of ponds that presently freeze to the bottom and result in fundamental changes in their limnological characteristics. At present, the food chain is rather simple usually culminating in lake trout or arctic char. A lengthening of the growing season and warmer water temperature would affect the chemical, mineral and nutrient status of lakes and most likely have deleterious effects on the food chain. Peatlands are extensive in region 2. They would move northwards at their southern boundaries, and, with sustained drying, many would change form or become inactive. Extensive wetlands and peatlands are an important component of the global carbon budget, and warmer and drier conditions would most likely change them from a sink to a source for atmospheric carbon. There is some evidence that this may be occurring already. Region 2 is very vulnerable to global warming. Its freshwater systems are probably the least studied and most poorly understood in North America. There are clear needs to improve our current knowledge of temperature and precipitation patterns; to model the thermal behaviour of wetlands, lakes and rivers; to understand better the interrelationships of cold region rivers with their basins; to begin studies on the very large lakes in the region; to obtain a firm grasp of the role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle; and to link the terrestrial water balance to the thermal and hydrological regime of the polar sea. Overall, there is a strong need for basic research and long-term monitoring. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于模拟退火算法的设计反应谱标定方法

反应谱的标定是抗震设计的基础工作之一,模拟退火算法是基于模拟固体退火过程而提出的多参数优化组合方法。本文提出将模拟退火算法应用于设计反应谱的标定,并概述了模拟退火算法的基本原理及特点,介绍了运用MATLAB基于模拟退火算法对反应谱进行标定的过程。检验了将模拟退火算法应用于场地相关谱标定的可行性和合理性,给出了将其应用于工程场地地震安全性评价中设计反应谱标定实例。通过检验和实例分析可以看出,基于模拟退火算法的反应谱标定方法所给出的设计反应谱谱形真实地反映了原地震反应谱的特征,较客观的反映了场地相关反应谱的峰值和周期特征。     

Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish

Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances.     

Impact of land use changes on surface warming in China

Land use changes such as urbanization, agriculture, pasturing, deforestation, desertification and irrigation can change the land surface heat flux directly, and also change the atmospheric circulation indirectly, and therefore affect the local temperature. But it is difficult to separate their effects from climate trends such as greenhouse-gas effects. Comparing the decadal trends of the observation station data with those of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR) data provides a good method to separate the effects because the NNR is insensitive to land surface changes. The effects of urbanization and other land use changes over China are estimated by using the difference between the station and the NNR surface temperature trends. Our results show that urbanization and other land use changes may contribute to the observed 0.12℃ (10 yr)- 1 increase for daily mean surface temperature, and the 0.20℃ (10 yr)- 1 and 0.03℃ (10 yr)-1 increases for the daily minimum and maximum surface temperatures, respectively. The urban heat island effect and the effects of other land-use changes mayalso play an important role in the diurnal temperature range change. The spatial pattern of the differences in trends shows a marked heterogeneity.The land surface degradation such as deforestation and desertification due to human activities over northern China, and rapidly-developed urbanization over southern China, may have mostly contributed to the increases at stations north of about 38°N and in Southeast China, respectively. Furthermore, the vegetation cover increase due to irrigation and fertilization may have contributed to the decreasing trend of surface temperature over the lower Yellow River Basin. The study illustrates the possible impacts of land use changes on surface temperature over China.     

近40年来中国大陆地表气温变化估算

 本文对近20年来中国地表气温变化估算方法进行了全面的总结,并对不同研究者所采用的资料、时间尺度及研究结果进行了对比分析。结合当前国际上应用较多的几种升温估算方法,本文以1970-2007年的气温数据为基础,分别应用直接算术平均法、逐站计算法、区域面积加权法、一级差分法和空间插值法,对中国大陆近40年的升温幅度分别进行了估算,从结果的对比分析中揭示中国地表气温变化估算中存在的不确定性:中国大陆地区近40年来的增温趋势在0.30~0.43℃/10a之间,升温幅度在1.16~1.56℃之间;冬季升温最为显著,夏季升温最少;整体上北方升温幅度高于南方。不同计算方法计算得到的增温速率在绝对值上有着一定差异,但整体趋势是相同的。     

元启发式搜索策略在构造模糊分类系统中的应用

论述了使用模拟退火元启发式搜索策略构造模糊分类系统的过程,目的是利用模拟退火原理研制一种精确的模糊分类器,改善与分类问题有关的搜索空间探索与发掘的性能,找到模糊if-then规则的优化集。算法可以从输入数据集中抽取精确的模糊分类规则,并在若干不同预定义类中将其应用于对新数据实例的分类。     

山区谷底沉陷预测模型及其参数反演

我国西部地区地势复杂,沟壑纵横,地下开采极易导致边坡失稳,引发采动滑坡。在地下采动沉降与滑坡体挤压上升的叠加影响下,谷底区域地表沉降值明显小于类似地质采矿条件下的平原地区。为准确预测山区谷底区域地表沉降值,基于简支梁的弹性变形理论,并借助概率密度函数建立了山区谷底区域地表沉陷预计修正模型,明确模型参数物理意义及其取值方法。依据修正模型,以实测值和预测值之差平方和最小为原则构建适应值函数,基于模拟退火粒子群算法提出新的模型参数反演方法,借助MATLAB语言编制了相应的参数反演程序。最后将研究成果应用于山西某矿,得到谷底区域预测结果中误差为73 mm,与实测值基本一致,取得了较好的工程实践效果。     

Causes and effects of spatial and temporal variations of cold period in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2014

Based on daily average temperatures and observation data from 74 meteorological stations in Chinese oases, we calculate five-day (pentad) average temperature ≤0°C for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period using linear regression analysis, nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests, the Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. We also analyze spatial and temporal variations and their effects on the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases. Results show that over the last 55 years, the start pentad of cold period has been postponed while the end pentad has been advanced. Overall, the pentads have gradually shortened over time at trend rates that are 0.3 p/10a,–0.27 p/10a, and–0.58 p/10a, respectively. Spatial differences are significant, especially for the Qaidam Basin oasis where the start pentad is the earliest, the end pentad is the latest, and the trend of change is most obvious. Mutation points for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period were observed in 1990, 1998, and 1994, respectively. Of these, the start pentad and pentads of cold period show a periodic cycle, related to atmospheric circulation and El Nino events, while the end pentad exhibits a periodic cycle, related to solar activity. The Tibetan Plateau index (TPI), the Asian polar vortex area index (APVAI), and carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) are the main factors affecting cold period in the study area, whereas the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) index exerts the greatest effect on the Qaidam Basin oasis. The start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period increase in concert with latitude, longitude, and altitude; in response to these changes, the start pentad is advanced, the end pentad is postponed, and pentads of cold period are gradually extended. Results show that change in latitude is most significant. Overall, the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period show clear responses to regional warming, but there are different effects on each.     

生物灭绝与人类存亡

近代由于气候的变暖,工业化进程的加快,人口的激增,森林的过度砍伐,草场的超载过牧,化学制品的滥用,环境的污染,生态环境遭到了严重破坏,生物物种灭绝速度较单纯自然状态下的速度要快1000倍。生物物种灭绝对人类生产、生活,甚至对人类生存都构成巨大的威胁。因此,应对气候变化,保护生物多样性,防止物种灭绝,已成为全球性的紧迫任务;中国是世界生物物种资源最丰富的国家之一。中国生物多样性形势总体严峻。中国政府高度重视生物多样性保护工作,先后颁布一系列法律法规,已收到巨大成效;保护生物多样性确保世界粮食安全,是全球人民的普遍愿望。生物灭绝关系人类存亡。人类要秉承天人合一的理念,与大自然和谐相处。     

Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate

Abstract

Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.