区域特性约束下的油藏物性模拟

为了提高油藏物性模拟的精度,本文提出了包含两个约束条件的目标函数,考虑在既满足井条件与空间结构变化,同时又满足油田范围内观测到的油藏物理性质的约束下,应用模拟退火算法,对孔隙度的空间分布进行预测模拟.由于目标函数有效地结合了静、动态信息,从而降低了模拟结果的不确定性,提高了模型的精度.合成数据的油藏物性模拟试验表明,该方法收敛快、稳定性好,模拟的结果令人满意.     

福建台网速度震级与仿真震级差异分析

选用福建地震台网“十五”观测系统运行以来记录的ML≥1．0地震资料,对测定的速度震级和仿真震级进行了震级偏差统计分析,初步得出两种震级偏差值及相关系数,并分析了震级差异形成原因,为福建地震台网震级的测定提供参考。     

Integration of surface water with groundwater resources aided by numerical modelling

ABSTRACT

The possibility was studied of a gradual extension of the irrigable area of the Tarlac Irrigation System, located in the alluvial plain of Luzon Island (Philippines). The extension would be made by integrating groundwater with surface water supplied from a reservoir already designed. Aquifer exploitation was studied adopting the criterion that groundwater is a very expensive resource to be turned to only in severe drought years. The objectives of the study were twofold: (a) planning the distribution of the wells (to be drilled during the various stages of the irrigation system development) so as to minimize the pumping cost; (b) establishing a policy for the well management in conjunction with the reservoir operation. Different schemes of the combined system management were analysed on the basis of the climatic and hydrological regime over the period 1950–1972. For this period the monthly water requirements for the different crops and the monthly values of aquifer recharge were computed. The economic analyses were performed using present prices of agricultural products and power together with several different hypotheses about future prices. A finite element model of the semiconfined aquifer was postulated and calibrated; the importance of the return flow from irrigation was also tested. Simulations of exploitation schemes provided a detailed forecast of the aquifer response to the irrigation demands.     

Application of wavelets to analysis and simulation of earthquake motions

A method of applying wavelet transform to earthquake motion analysis is developed from the viewpoint of energy input structures, in which relationships between wavelet coefficients and energy input, namely energy principles in wavelet analysis are derived. By using the principles, time–frequency characteristics of the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake ground motions are analysed and time histories of energy input for various ranges of frequencies and epicentral distances are identified. Furthermore, a technique to simulate earthquake ground accelerations by wavelet inverse transform is developed on the condition that target time-frequency characteristics are specified. Structural responses to the simulated accelerations are compared with the target time–frequency characteristics, which shows satisfactory correlations between wavelet coefficients and energy responses in both time and frequency domains. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation of Forecast Cloud Parameters from Multispectral AIRS Radiances

The well-known CO₂ slicing technique which provides retrievals of cloud parameters (effective height and amount) is adapted in light of model validation using multispectral infrared sounders. The technique is applied to both real Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances and to corresponding radiances simulated from global 6 h and 12 h forecasts for the 31 days of July 2008. The forecast model is the one used operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Radiances are simulated from the Radiative Transfer for the Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (RTTOV) model. When compared to model output of cloud parameters, simulated retrievals help us understand systematic biases linked to the retrieval technique. Systematic errors of interest, attributed to forecast cloud parameters, are then more clearly assessed from real retrievals. This is the central idea of this paper. The proposed definition of model cloud top, based on cloud transmittance, corresponds well to the height derived from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) instrument. These lidar-derived cloud heights, in turn, confirm the nature of the biases produced by the CO₂ slicing technique (e.g., a negative bias increasing with height to about 2 km (approximately 50 hPa) for the highest clouds at 16 km (approximately 100 hPa)). Results suggest that the model has a tendency to produce an excess of low-level clouds below 2 km, compensated for by a deficit from 3 to 6 km. No significant differences are found between 6 h and 12 h forecast monthly fields, an indication that the model has sufficiently spun-up after a few hours. Retrieved global monthly cloud parameter fields are compared to independently derived products available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and AIRS standard processing. Significant differences are noted, linked to the different retrieval approaches, input data and resolution. This is further evidence that, for validation purposes, definitions of observed and model parameters must be consistent.     

改进模拟退火法在估计河流水质参数中的应用

将模拟退火法应用于求解分析河流水团示踪试验数据，确定河流水质参数的函数优化问题。针对标准SA算法收敛速度缓慢的弱点，采取了增加附加约束条件、设置内阈值提前降温和增加记忆功能等综合措施对算法进行了改进。算例表明，综合改进措施能够明显地提高算法收敛速度，并可以得到满意的参数计算结果。计算结果也表明，内循环次数不会对外循环次数产生明显的影响。由于算法对目标函数没有附加要求，而且算法的收敛性与待估参数的初值无关，因此，改进SA算法在分析河流水质试验数据、确定水质参数方面．将会具有非常广的应用范围。     

面向生态的额尔齐斯河水库群中长期调度

为解决水库群中长期生态调度问题,以新疆额尔齐斯河流域为研究对象,构建了水库调度的网络节点图,建立了面向生态的水库群中长期调度模拟和优化两种模型,分别采用历时水量平衡的自迭代模拟优化算法和大系统协调的动态规划方法求解。结果表明,中长期模拟和优化调度结果均满足流域水资源综合利用、生态供水及相应保证率要求,且优化调度模型计算的河道内外生态供水、北疆供水、农业供水等均优于模拟模型。同时,揭示了来水与生态供水的关系,制定了关键水库的生态调度图,建立了调度函数并通过合理性检验。研究成果对额尔齐斯河水资源综合利用、保障河道鱼类栖息地、河谷林草的生态安全提供了中长期战略支持,具有重要的理论意义与应用价值。     

遗传模拟退火的BP算法在冲击地压中的应用

冲击地压的预测、预报的研究,大多数仍停留在简单的统计研究和单因素的预测方面,因而,结果也不十分理想。笔者采用多层前向网络对该问题进行数学建模,网络的训练算法采用基于遗传模拟退火的BP优化算法。该算法是在遗传算法中引入模拟退火机制,将其同BP算法结合,形成一个混合的优化算法。新算法既有神经网络的学习能力和鲁棒性,又有遗传算法的强全局随机搜索能力。同时,利用华丰矿冲击地压的实际监测数据,通过遗传算法的主要性能指标对新算法的参数进行了比较研究,得到优化后的一组参数。利用该参数,对冲击地压的神经网络模型的结构、权值和阈值进行了优化,得到了非全连接的优化神经网络模型。最后,利用该模型对华丰矿冲击地压进行了短期最大震级的预报。预测结果的相对误差率平均为 7.84 %,预测效果比较理想。     

Ultraviolet absorbance titration for the determination of conditional stability constants of Hg（Ⅱ） and dissolved organic matter

Strong interaction between natural dissolved organic matter （DOM） and Hg（Ⅱ） may influence the transport, conversion, toxicity and bio-validity of mercury in the environment. In this paper ultraviolet （UV） absorbance titration was employed for the first time for the determination of the conditional stability constants of Hg（Ⅱ） and （DOM）. With increasing Hg（Ⅱ） concentrations, the UV absorbance of fulvic acid, humic acid, and DOM in river increases progressively. By linear and non-linear model fitting, the conditional stability constants （lgK） of Hg（Ⅱ） and DOM were worked out to be 3.54-4.93 and 3.64-4.85, respectively. The results are consistent with those acquired by the typical fluorescence quenching titration method, with the maximum relative error of lgK being 2.6% and the average relative error being 0.2%. The UV absorbance titration method has the advantages of rapid determination, simple performance, and it will probably become a new approach to studying interactions between DOM and trace metallic ions.     

花岗岩裂隙水推荐配方稳定性模拟研究

在核废物深部地质处理科学过程中，提供一种长期稳定的模拟花岗岩裂隙，用以模拟试验是非常有必要的。本文主要依照中国辐射防护研究院推荐的模拟花岗岩裂隙水修正配方，引用地球化学模式程序对其溶液的稳定性进行模拟计算，探讨配方中所存在的问题。