基于新型探测资料对西安一次弱降水预报失误的原因分析

利用微波辐射计、激光测风雷达、多普勒雷达、相控阵雷达等新型探测资料、地面加密观测资料、ERA5再分析及多模式数值预报结果对2022年4月24日西安城区一次弱降水预报出现明显失误的原因进行分析,结果表明：(1)全球数值预报模式和中尺度数值预报模式对本次过程西安城区均报有明显降水,主要原因为模式对低层相对湿度预报明显偏大;(2)多种新型探测数据分析认为近地层湿度条件较差及中层的绝对水汽含量低,中层的干暖空气不利于成云致雨,垂直上升运动不强,且由于低层非常干燥,使水滴在下沉过程中蒸发,从而无法形成雨滴下落,这些原因共同造成西安城区无降水,低层相对湿度预报偏大是造成这次西安城区降水预报失误的主要原因之一;(3)造成西安城区近地层湿度条件差的原因是城市干热岛效应和低层干暖平流输送,且降水云团翻越秦岭后其湿空气绝热下沉至城区后出现增温降湿,使得城区形成较为深厚的干层,即使有雨滴在下落过程中也会造成更强的蒸发,这也是城区没有降水的重要原因之一;(4)预报员主观预报订正出现空报主要是源于对边界层水汽、抬升条件等关键降水要素缺乏订正能力,且对大城市的干热岛效应和秦岭山区地形影响研究不足。     

模糊方法在地质灾害危险性评价中的应用

地质灾害评估是协调人地关系研究的重要内容,可为大型工程建设的前期工作提供基本依据。本文采用模糊综合评价法,选择历史灾害危险性、潜在灾害危险性2个基本要素和相应的8个评价因子,对甘肃省洮河莲麓水电站建设用地地质灾害危险性进行了评估。结果表明:河谷地貌区和山间盆地地貌区地质灾害危险性中等,中山地貌区地质灾害危险性小。     

GIS互操作的实现途径评述

文中主要探讨了开放式GIS的规程和关键技术,促进数据、系统和机构的互操作,总结了世界上著名公司最近GIS产品实现互操作的技术途径,给出了国际上有关GIS互操作、开放式GIS研究的最新进展以及近期发展方向。     

中国沙漠（地）生态系统水文调控功能及其服务价值评估

荒漠生态系统是整个生物圈中分布较广的一个系统,是陆地生态系统中一个重要的子系统。开展荒漠生态系统服务价值研究和评价,对荒漠生态系统重要性认识和管理具有重要的现实意义。本文基于中国沙漠（地）生态系统的生态水文过程、水平衡机理和水文调控功能等,对其在淡水提供、原盐生产、水源涵养和气候调节方面的物质流——水资源进行了核算,结合不同类型生态服务价值通量,初步评估了中国荒漠生态系统在水文调控方面的服务价值。结果表明:中国沙漠（地）生态系统水文调控方面的生态服务价值为每年5 510.05亿元,其中供给服务价值370.42亿元,调节服务价值5 139.63亿元,分别占总服务价值的6.72%和93.28%。     

δ~(18)O, δD and d-excess signatures of ground ice in permafrost in the Beiluhe Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

In this paper, stable isotope(δ~(18)O, δD) investigations were completed in ground ice from a deep borehole in the Beiluhe Basin on northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to unravel the isotopic variations of ground ice and their possible source water. The δ~(18)O and δD of ground ice show distinctive characteristics compared with precipitation and surface water. The near-surface ground ice is highly enriched in heavier isotopes(δ~(18)O and δD), which were gradually depleted from top to bottom along the profile. It is suggestive of different origin and ice formation process. According to isotopic variations, the ice profile was divided into three sections: the near-surface ground ice at 2.5 m is frozen by the active-layer water which suffered evaporation. It is possible that ground ice between 3 and 4.2 m is recharged by the infiltration of snowmelt. From 5 to 6 m, the ground ice show complex origin and formation processes. Isotopic variations from 6 to 11.1 m and 20.55 m indicate different replenishment water. The calculated slope of freezing line(S=6.4) is larger than the experimental value(5.76), and is suggestive of complex origin and formation process of ground ice.     

黄河三角洲芦苇湿地生态修复效果评价研究

基于黄河三角洲芦苇湿地退化现状及所实施的生态修复工程,以正负参照系选取了4块不同修复年限的样地,从湿地生态系统的环境质量、结构与功能的角度构建了湿地修复效果评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确定各指标权重,利用模糊综合评价法对黄河三角洲盐渍化芦苇湿地的修复效果进行定量评价。结果表明:黄河三角洲芦苇湿地4年修复期的样地评价得分为4.01,2年修复期的样地评价得分为3.16,对应评价结果分别为"优"和"良"的等级。相比负向对照,修复区的水体指标和土壤指标参数显著改善,而植被生物量和密度与自然样地还有较大差距,说明生物群落的建立需要更长的时间;同时,湿地水资源管理是该区芦苇湿地生态修复工程的关键,应根据芦苇不同生长期的需水量,制定合理的抽灌制度,达到洗碱脱盐和植被建群的双重目的。     

厦门湾城市化过程的人口资源环境与发展调控

首先剖析城市化过程PRED 演变的“五律协同”原理和PRED 演变轨迹的数学概念模型, 在此基础上提出海湾地区城市化过程PRED 演变的“六位一体”宏观调控模型及其指标体系和灰度评估模型; 然后从规划的角度设计海湾地区“六位一体”的调控方案框架, 通过 “六位一体”指标的评估和调控, 确保海湾地区PRED 遵循“五律协同” 原理有序协调地演 进; 最后以厦门海湾为例。厦门城市已进入较高级的发展阶段, 第一产业已基本为第二、第 三产业所替代, 海湾资源的开发利用相当密集, 湾内有中华白海豚、文昌鱼等海洋珍稀物种, 还有以红树林为代表的海洋生态湿地; 经分析评估, 其城市化过程PRED 演变“六位一体” 的灰度值为75.725; 保持PRED 协调演进应加强调控的主要方面是: 保护重要的生态源和海陆之间的生态廊道、防止深水港口岸段和航道的淤积、“控源导流”缩减陆源污染、塑造海湾特色景观和岛链景观、保持港口航运业和滨海旅游业的主导作用并选择性地发展临海工业和海洋新兴产业等。     

Predicting demand for 311 non-emergency municipal services: An adaptive space-time kernel approach

Many cities in the United States and Canada offer a 311 helpline to their residents for submitting requests for non-emergency municipal services. By dialing 311, urban residents can report a range of public issues that require governmental attention, including potholes, graffito, sanitation complaints, and tree debris. The demand for these municipal services fluctuates greatly with time and location, which poses multiple challenges to effective deployment of limited resources. To address these challenges, this study uses a locally adaptive space-time kernel approach to model 311 requests as an inhomogeneous Poisson process and presents an analytical framework to generate predictions of 311 demand in space and time. The predictions can be used to optimally allocate resources and staff, reduce response time, and allow long-term dynamic planning. We use a bivariate spatial kernel to identify the spatial structure and weigh each kernel by corresponding past observations to capture the temporal dynamics. Short-term serial dependency and weekly temporality are modeled through the temporal weights, which are adaptive to local community areas. We also transform the computation-intensive parameter estimation procedure to a low dimensional optimization problem by fitting to the autocorrelation function of historical requests. The presented method is demonstrated and validated with sanitation service requests in Chicago. The results indicate that it performs better than common industry practice and conventional spatial models with a comparable computational cost.     

Characteristics and progress of land use/cover change research during 1990–2018

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the foundation and frontier for integrating multiple land surface processes. This paper aims to systematically review LUCC...     

内蒙古和林格尔新区核心区地下空间适宜性评价

本文以内蒙古和林格尔新区核心区为研究范围,利用已有调查数据,基于MapGIS平台,从水文地质、工程地质、不良地质及地貌4个方面选取9个因子组成了地下空间适宜性评价指标体系,采用层次分析法对研究区地下空间适宜性进行了评价。评价结果显示：研究区浅层地下空间较适宜区占总面积99.71%;中层地下空间较适宜区占总面积95.03%;深层地下空间较适宜区分布于研究区东南部,占总面积26.95%,次适宜区大面积分布于研究区中西部区域,占总面积72.27%。研究结果表明：研究区地下空间资源综合适宜性等级基本以较适宜、次适宜为主,区内不同竖向层次与不同区位地下空间资源的适宜性存在差异,资源条件总体上呈现\