主应变比异常理论在青海祁连地震预报中的应用

本文利用主应变比异常理论分析了祁连建站以来地应变观测资料，认为肃南──祁连断裂段上及附近发生的地震是由于构造应力场的变化，在引张应力状态下，正断层或走滑断层易于活动而导致的。     

压力及流体对岩石孔隙结构与黏弹性的影响规律研究:理论模型及实验观测

地质成因和构造/热应力导致地壳岩石中的孔隙结构（裂隙和粒间孔）的变化.影响岩石黏弹性的因素包括压力、孔隙度、孔隙中包含的流体和孔隙几何形状等.相对于岩石中的硬孔隙,岩石黏弹性（衰减和频散）受软孔隙（裂隙）的影响更大.本文选取三块白云岩样本,进行了不同围压和流体条件下的超声波实验测量.利用CPEM（Cracks and Pores Effective Medium,裂隙和孔隙有效介质）模型获得了岩石高、低频极限的弹性模量,并通过Zener体（标准线性体）模型将CPEM模型拓展到全频带而得到CPEM-Zener模型,用该模型拟合岩石松弛和非松弛状态下的实验数据,本文得到平均裂隙纵横比和裂隙孔隙度以及纵波速度和品质因子随频率的变化关系.结果表明,饱水岩石的平均裂隙纵横比和裂隙孔隙度均高于饱油岩石,随着压差（围压和孔隙压力的差值）的增加,饱油岩石中的裂隙首先闭合.并且压差在70 MPa以内时,随着压差增大,岩石的平均裂隙纵横比和裂隙孔隙度在饱水和饱油时的差值增大,此时流体类型对于岩石裂隙的影响越来越显著,此外,对饱水岩石,平均裂隙纵横比随压差增加而增大,这可能是由于岩石中纵横比较小的裂隙会随压差增大而逐渐趋于闭合.在饱水和饱油岩石中,裂隙孔隙度和裂隙密度都随着压差增加而减小.通过对裂隙密度和压差的关系进行指数拟合,本文获得压差趋于0时的裂隙密度,且裂隙密度随孔隙度增大而增大,增大速率随压差增加而降低.针对饱水和饱油的白云岩样本,CPEM-Zener模型预测的纵波频散随压差增大而减小,此变化趋势和实验测得的逆品质因子随压差的变化关系基本一致,由此进一步验证了模型的实用性.本研究对岩石的孔隙结构和黏弹性分析以及声波测井、地震勘探的现场应用有指导意义.     

山西地区的波速比（V_P/V_S）特征研究

利用山西台网的数字地震观测资料,采用单震多台和达法、多震多台联合测定法,对山西北部、中部和南部地区波速比进行分析研究,结果表明：在2010年1月24日的河津万荣4.8级地震、4月4日的大同4.5级地震和6月5日阳曲4.6级地震前均存在波速比下降现象,其中前2次地震发生在波速比下降过程中,第3次地震则发生在波速比异常恢复阶段。之后山西中部和北部的波速比处于低值,尤其是山西北部的波速比低值持续,说明山西省北部是比较危险的区域。     

VLBI观测双线极化条纹拟合方法

提出了一种可用于下一代VLBI观测系统(VGOS)的双线极化条纹拟合方法。现有的VLBI观测模式采用的是右圆极化(RCP),而VGOS系统采用的是双线极化。本文方法包括校正和组合条纹拟合两部分。校正部分选择一颗强源作为参考源,分别得到不同极化方式下的通道时延及相位校正数据,用于目标源的校正。组合条纹拟合部分将4种极化分量的可见度数据组合成伪Stokes分量,通过搜索差分星位角使伪Stokes分量的幅值达到最大,从而获得最终的时延观测量。与单极化条纹拟合相比,组合极化获得的条纹具有更高的信噪比(SNR)及更小的条纹相位弥散度。     

Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Nio-La Nia Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Nina) to a warm water state (El Nino) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980-2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Nino (or La Nina) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Nino and La Nina events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16°N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Nino event to a La Nina event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Nino or La Nina event at least one year in advance.     

利用小波包分析进行地震相关热红外辐射异常信息检测

研究表明很多地震前后存在明显的热红外辐射异常.影响地物热红外辐射信息的因素很多,而地震相关的热红外辐射异常是强干扰背景下的弱信息,难以简单地将其提取出来.本文将地震相关的热红外辐射异常作为一种事件性的信号分析,通过小波包分析将热红外辐射信息的时间序列分解成不同频带的信号,通过分析各频带信号能量的变化规律进行事件性信号检测.2005年11月26日九江地震、2006年4月21日堪察加地震和1998年8月27日伽师地震的研究结果表明,小波包分析能有效检测这种事件性信号,同时显示这种事件性信号与地震活动之间关系的机理和时空演化特征是进一步研究的重点.     

生长前期三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)附肢再生系统解析及阶段划分

以三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)第Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ期幼蟹为材料,采用组织切片等方法研究其大螯断肢后再生生长规律。结果表明,第Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ期幼蟹大螯一次蜕壳再生率分别为59.9%,75.3%,74.2%,80.4%,69.5%;断肢组存活率分别为89.4%,84.9%,85.2%,89.4%和74.2%,均低于对照组的98.2%,90.3%,95.1%,90.2%和80.3%,但差异不显著(P0.05);第Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ期断肢组在去大螯后平均蜕壳周期分别为3.33d、4.47d和6.27d,显著长于正常组的2.13d、3.89d和5.63d)(P0.05),而第Ⅳ、Ⅴ期断肢组平均蜕壳周期分别为7.12d和10.86d,极显著长于对照组的6.11d和8.09d(P0.01),且断肢个体的生长期越往后,断肢再生所需时间越长。本研究依据再生附肢发育特点将三疣梭子蟹大螯断肢再生划分为6个标志性发育阶段:再生芽基期、肢芽趾缝期、肢芽分化期、肢芽斑点期、肢芽成熟期、肢体出膜期;第Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ期蟹再生肢芽横纵比平均值分别达到0.32、0.318、0.398、0.518、0.538时,断肢幼蟹可以达到附肢出膜的临界点。综上所述,三疣梭子蟹断肢后能在1个蜕壳周期内完成大螯再生,第Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ期断肢幼蟹蜕壳周期时间显著高于正常幼蟹;断肢组成活率低于对照组,但差异不显著,第Ⅳ期幼蟹的再生率和存活率均最高;各期幼蟹断肢再生附肢均经过6个具有标志性事件的发育阶段;各期再生肢芽横纵比值具有一定临界值(0.32,0.318,0.398,0.518,0.538)。本研究首次对三疣梭子蟹断肢再生过程及再生能力进行了探究,结果将有助于甲壳类断肢再生机理的阐明。     

构造带综放工作面支架异常压力机理探讨

针对多个综放采场出现的支架立柱压爆、油缸变形等异常矿压显现,通过对综放采场上覆岩层的运动范围及运动特点、顶板结构动态稳定性的分析,探讨了综放工作面异常压力产生的机理。得出了顶板结构局部铰接失稳（滑落失稳）是造成异常压力主要原因的结论。由于滑落失稳的原因不同,可分为水浸蚀型、地质构造型和顶板失稳型。通过对综放采场支架作用力的分析,给出了计算异常压力的公式。利用顶板结构动态稳定性判断准则,可对异常压力的类型进行判别,从而进一步确定异常压力的计算方法,为采场支架选型和现场控制异常压力提供理论依据。     

Decadal link between longitudinal morphological changes in branching channels of Yangtze estuary and movement of the offshore depo-center

In estuaries, the morphology of inland and offshore areas usually evolves synergistically. This study examines the decadal link between longitudinal changes in morphology of branching channels and movement of the offshore depo-center (where sediment deposition rate is maximum) of the Yangtze River estuary, under intense human interference. Integrated data analysis is provided on morphology, runoff discharge, and ebb partition ratio from 1950 to 2017. Channel-volume reductions and change rates between isobaths in branching channels reflect the impact of estuarine engineering projects. Ebb partition ratio and duration of discharge ≥ 60 000 m³ s^-1 act as proxies for the water excavating force in branching channels and runoff intensity. It is found that deposition occurs in the lower/upper sub-reaches (or further downstream/upstream channels) of the inland north/south branching channels, and the offshore depo-center moves southward or southeastward, as runoff intensity grows; the reverse occurs as runoff intensity declines. This is because the horizontal circumfluence in the Yangtze estuary rotates clockwise as ebb partition ratios of the north/south branching channels increase/decrease for increasing runoff, and conversely rotates anticlockwise for decreasing runoff. Land reclamation activities, the Deepwater Channel Project, and the Qingcaosha Reservoir have impacted greatly on longitudinal changes of morphology in the North Branch and the South Passage and on ebb partition ratio variations in the North/South Channel and the North/South Passage. Dam-induced runoff flattening has enhanced deposition in the upper/lower sub-reaches of the north/south branching channels and caused northward movement of the offshore depo-center, except in areas affected by estuarine engineering projects. Dam-induced longitudinal evolution of branching channel morphology and offshore depo-center movement will likely persist in the future, given the ongoing construction of large cascade dams in the upper Yangtze and the completion of major projects in the Yangtze estuary. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HHT法的基本原理及其应用探讨

以Timoshenko单跨梁为研究对象,采用回转射线矩阵法进行动力响应计算,针对Timoshenko梁的瞬态响应信号为非平稳信号,采用基于Hilbert—Huang变换原理的信号时频分析,并与FFT的处理结果进行对比分析。结果表明,HHT方法比Frr法更适合非平稳信号的分析和处理,同时,HHT方法不仅可以将瞬态信号中低频和高频部分分离出来,还可以通过Hilbert谱展示信号能量在时频域内的分布,更为深入的了解信号的本质。