IPCC AR6报告解读：气候系统对太阳辐射干预响应

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告评估了太阳辐射干预（Solar radiation modification,SRM）对气候系统和碳循环的影响。在大幅度减排基础上,太阳辐射干预有潜力作为应对气候变化的备用措施。目前,对于太阳辐射干预气候影响的评估都是基于模式模拟结果。评估主要结论如下：太阳辐射干预可以在全球和区域尺度上抵消一部分温室气体增加造成的气候变化（高信度);但是太阳辐射干预无法在全球和区域尺度上完全抵消温室气体增加引起的气候变化（几乎确定);有可能通过适当的太阳辐射干预设计,同时实现多个温度变化减缓目标（中等信度);在高强度温室气体排放情景下,如果太阳辐射干预实施后突然终止,并且这种终止长时间持续,将会造成快速的气候变化（高信度);如果在减排和CO₂移除的情况下,太阳辐射干预的实施强度逐渐减小至零,将显著降低太阳辐射干预突然终止产生的快速气候变化风险（中等信度);太阳辐射干预会通过降温作用,促进陆地和海洋对大气CO₂的吸收（中等信度),但是太阳辐射干预无法缓解海洋酸化（高信度);太阳辐射干预对其他生物化学循环影响的不确定性大。由于对云-气溶胶-辐射过程的相互作用和微物理过程认知有限,目前对平流层气溶胶注入、海洋低云亮化、高层卷云变薄等太阳辐射干预方法的冷却潜力和气候效应的认知还有很大的不确定性。     

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.     

The Digital Belt and Road program in support of regional sustainability

The Belt and Road initiative has a significant focus on infrastructure, trade, and economic development across a vast region, and it also provides significant opportunities for sustainable development. The combined pressure of climate variability, intensified use of resources, and the fragility of ecosystems make it very challenging, however, to achieve future sustainability. To develop the path in a sustainable way, it is important to have a comprehensive understanding of these issues across nations and evaluate them in a scientific and well-informed approach. In this context, the Digital Belt and Road (DBAR) program was initiated as an international venture to share expertise, knowledge, technologies, and data to demonstrate the role of Earth observation science and technology and big Earth data applications to support large-scale development. In this paper, we identify pressing challenges, present the research priorities and foci of the DBAR program, and propose solutions where big Earth data can make significant contributions. This paper calls for further joint actions and collaboration to build a digital silk road in support of sustainable development at national, regional and global levels.     

Geometric-constrained multi-view image matching method based on semi-global optimization

Targeting at a reliable image matching of multiple remote sensing images for the generation of digital surface models, this paper presents a geometric-constrained multi-view image matching method, based on an energy minimization framework. By employing a geometrical constraint, the cost value of the energy function was calculated from multiple images, and the cost value was aggregated in an image space using a semi-global optimization approach. A homography transform parameter calculation method is proposed for fast calculation of projection pixel on each image when calculating cost values. It is based on the known interior orientation parameters, exterior orientation parameters, and a given elevation value. For an efficient and reliable processing of multiple remote sensing images, the proposed matching method was performed via a coarse-to-fine strategy through image pyramid. Three sets of airborne remote sensing images were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Results reveal that the multi-view image matching can improve matching reliability. Moreover, the experimental results show that the proposed method performs better than traditional methods.     

Super-resolution enhancement of UAV images based on fractional calculus and POCS

Abstract

A super-resolution enhancement algorithm was proposed based on the combination of fractional calculus and Projection onto Convex Sets (POCS) for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) images. The representative problems of UAV images including motion blur, fisheye effect distortion, overexposed, and so on can be improved by the proposed algorithm. The fractional calculus operator is used to enhance the high-resolution and low-resolution reference frames for POCS. The affine transformation parameters between low-resolution images and reference frame are calculated by Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) for matching. The point spread function of POCS is simulated by a fractional integral filter instead of Gaussian filter for more clarity of texture and detail. The objective indices and subjective effect are compared between the proposed and other methods. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms in most cases, especially in the structure and detail clarity of the reconstructed images.     

Modelling coastal land use change by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata models

This paper presents a spatial autoregressive (SAR) method-based cellular automata (termed SAR-CA) model to simulate coastal land use change, by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into transition rules. The model captures the spatial relationships between explained and explanatory variables and then integrates them into CA transition rules. A conventional CA model (LogCA) based on logistic regression (LR) was studied as a comparison. These two CA models were applied to simulate urban land use change of coastal regions in Ningbo of China from 2000 to 2015. Compared to the LR method, the SAR model yielded smaller accumulated residuals that showed a random distribution in fitting the CA transition rules. The better-fitting SAR model performed well in simulating urban land use change and scored an overall accuracy of 85.3%, improving on the LogCA model by 3.6%. Landscape metrics showed that the pattern generated by the SAR-CA model has less difference with the observed pattern.     

辽东岫岩地区古元古代花岗伟晶岩锆石U-Pb年龄、地球化学特征及地质意义

辽东岫岩地区位于胶—辽—吉古元古代造山/活动带内,区域内广泛存在花岗质伟晶岩脉或岩体,对其进行研究具有重要的构造意义。研究区出露大量古元古代花岗伟晶岩,前人将其统一划归到花岗质混杂岩和辽河岩群内。本文通过详细的野外地质调查和室内综合研究,将该套花岗伟晶岩脉解体为出来,重新厘定为新的填图单元。本文对研究区2件花岗伟晶岩样品进行岩石学、岩石地球化学、锆石LA-ICP-MS稀土微量元素和U-Pb定年的综合研究,获得花岗伟晶岩的原岩年龄,并对其岩石地球化学、成因和构造环境进行了探讨。花岗伟晶岩主要矿物组合为钾长石+斜长石+石英±白云母±电气石,花岗伟晶结构,块状构造。岩石地球化学分析结果显示其均匀具有一致的地球化学特征。它们均显示高的SiO2(72.1%~75.3%)、Al2O3(13.5%~16.4%),低CaO(1.42%~2.03%)、MgO(0.15%~0.76%)、P2O5(0.01%~0.02%%)、TiO2(0.06%~0.17%)等含量;稀土元素总量偏低,稀土富集、重稀土亏损,稀土配分曲线右倾型,明显的正δEu异常;微量元素富集大离子亲石元素(Cs、Rb、Ba、U),相对亏损高场强元素(Nb、Ta、Ti)等特征。样品(DST-TW1和WJG-TW1)锆石CL图像强度均较弱,前者大部分锆石不能反映矿物内部结构,后者大部分锆石能显示弱振荡环带,这一特征与锆石U含量均较高(1253.1×10-6~12861.5×10-6、874.5×10-6~5319.1×10-6)相吻合。锆石虽具有岩浆锆石的自形特征,但其Th/U值(0.01~0.26和0.01~0.62)较低,稀土配分模式显示热液锆石特征,在(Sm/La)N—La和Ce/Ce*—(Sm/La)N图解上偏热液锆石区域,此花岗伟晶岩脉可能是母岩浆高度结晶分异后的残余岩浆热液结晶而成,偏热液性质。本文研究的2件样品(DST-TW1和WJG-TW1)年龄分别为1864±20 Ma(MSWD=0.19)和1903.6±4.7 Ma(MSWD=0.041),其侵位时间介于1.9~1.86 Ga之间。从岩石地球化学、形成时代推测其物源与研究区周围~1.87 Ga的S型花岗岩具有亲缘关系。从构造环境来看,研究区内古元古代花岗伟晶岩形成于胶—辽—吉造山带弧陆碰撞结束后伸展的构造体制下,在主期花岗质岩浆上涌之后,地壳在不断伸展和松弛垮塌,大量残余岩浆或岩浆热液上涌形成伟晶岩的岩脉、岩墙或岩体,侵位时代从~1.9 Ga到~1.74 Ga。从而推测胶—辽—吉造山带在碰撞后的构造折返过程中一直处于伸展的构造机制,后造山阶段至少持续了160 Ma。     

甘肃省明舒井地区高光谱蚀变异常及找矿分析

正明舒井地区位于甘肃省北西侧,敦煌市北侧、瓜州县北西侧。前人在该区及周边区域开展了区调、矿调及相关多金属矿的勘查工作(王瑞军等,2014,2017),在遥感地质方面,仅开展了多光谱遥感的应用工作,而针对高光谱遥感的研究工作还未开展。明舒井地区基岩出露好、地形起伏小、切割弱,地表蚀变发育,矿床、矿点分布较多,具备开展高光谱遥感技术的地质和自然地理条件,有利于发挥高光谱的技术优势。     

西藏班戈错水菱镁矿藻类成矿实验及其成因分析

目前关于天然水菱镁矿的形成认识主要有蒸发沉积成因和生物成因两类。前人在室内成功制备出水菱镁矿矿物,证实了该矿物的无机成因理论,但是实验结晶条件明显高于西藏班戈错的寒冷气候条件和水化学条件,并且班戈错湖水通过自然蒸发结晶也难以形成水菱镁矿矿物,而这一认识与周边阶地上正在形成水菱镁矿的现象相矛盾。因此,自然蒸发沉积可能不是现阶段班戈错水菱镁矿的主要形成过程,而已有研究表明,藻类具备诱导形成碳酸盐矿物的能力,本文利用西藏班戈错Ⅲ湖湖水及其藻类开展室内模拟实验,并与无藻类的湖水自然结晶结果相对照,探讨藻类生命活动与班戈错水菱镁矿的成因联系。研究发现,藻类不仅能够适应高盐度盐水环境（矿化度117.3 g/L）,并且在其光合作用过程中还能显著提高周围水体pH值（最高可达10.564）,诱导并促进球碳镁石在藻类网状节点处结晶沉淀,该矿物进一步脱水即能够形成水菱镁矿矿物;而人为提高班戈错Ⅲ湖湖水Mg2+浓度也仅能结晶形成三水菱镁矿矿物,无球碳镁石或水菱镁矿结晶析出。因此,西藏班戈错水菱镁矿的形成过程与藻类生物成矿作用密切相关,但是有关球碳镁石向水菱镁矿转变的具体条件以及藻类成矿作用的具体分子机制仍不清楚,有待于进一步研究。