强震后既有建筑火灾危险性的模糊数学评估模型研究

在强烈地震发生后,会引发建筑火灾等次生灾害,涉及因素较多,传统火灾危险性数学模型忽略了强震后既有建筑发生火灾时不同因素的随机性与模糊性特性,难于建立健全的评估数学模型,导致评估精度低。为解决该问题,通过分析强震后既有建筑火灾影响,用因素模糊数学方法建立强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估数学模型及评估体系。具体方法是对评估指标体系中各层因素针对上层因素影响进行评分,建立判断矩阵,获取权重。确定隶属度矩阵,获取强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估的因素集与评语集,构造单因素评判,给评估集中的因素赋予权重,进行一级模糊评估。把一级评估结果当成二级评估的单因素评估,通过模糊数学理论完成对强震后既有建筑火灾危险性的评估,得到综合评估结果。实验结果表明,采用所提模型进行危险性评估,得到结果符合实际情况,与其他模型相比,所提模型评估精度高。     

From subsurface to surface: a multidisciplinary approach to decoding uplift histories in tectonically-active karst landscapes

We present an integrated study of subsurface and surficial karst landforms to unravel the uplift history of karst landscape in a tectonically-active area. To this end, we apply a multidisciplinary approach by combining cave geomorphology and Th/U dating of speleothems with remote sensing plus geophysical imaging of surface landforms. We use as an example Mt. Menikio in northern Greece where four caves share well-defined epiphreatic/shallow phreatic characteristics that are related to the distribution of surface and buried doline fields and provide evidence for three distinct water table stillstands (e.g. expressed as cave levels) now lying at ~130 m, ~800 m and ~1600 m a.m.s.l. Our dating constraints delimit the age of the lower water table stillstand prior to 77 ka ago and imply a maximum rate of relative base level drop of 0.45 mma^-1, which is consistent with relative tectonic uplift rate estimates along currently active normal faults. We interpret the elevation of the higher water table stillstands to reflect earlier phases of uplift related to the regional tectonic events associated with the development of the North Anatolian Fault and the Northern Aegean area. Our analysis shows that the combined study of epiphreatic/shallow phreatic caves and surficial karst landforms together, is a robust way to investigate the uplift history of a karst landscape in a tectonically-active setting. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中强地震下建筑结构动力弹塑性损伤模型研究

抗震性能是建筑设计中的一项重要指标,需要对地震作用下的建筑结构动力弹塑性损伤情况进行分析。提出一种中强地震下建筑结构动力弹塑性损伤模型研究方法。从有效应力与Cauchy应力张量\,建筑材料损伤演化方程等方面对弹塑性损伤模型基本原理进行分析,以此为理论基础,分析建筑材料应变率与建筑结构损伤能释放率的相关关系,通过Bonora损伤模型获取失效建筑材料损伤指数,并计算整体建筑结构构件损伤指数,以建筑材料损伤指数和建筑结构构件损伤指数为依据,完成中强地震下的建筑结构动力弹塑性损伤模型构建。利用实例进行分析,地震加速度值为0.3g的情况下,该模型的建筑结构相对位移时程曲线与实际位移曲线拟合度较高,且具有较好的建筑结构动力弹塑性损伤模拟精度,表明该模型具有一定的可行性。     

西藏地区M_L≥4级地震活动低频次异常分析

地震平静或者增强现象相对于正常地震活动背景都是一种异常变化。经初步研究发现,在西藏区域内强地震之前经常出现ML4级以上地震活动频次较低的现象。本文通过对2008~2018年西藏自治区及邻区的ML4级以上地震和M6级以上地震目录进行整理分析,并对研究时段内的8次M6.0级以上地震(余震不计)前,ML4级以上地震连续6个月的月频次为4次以下以及后续发生M6级以上地震的情况进行系统分析研究,找出了ML4级以上地震低频次活动的异常特征,得到了4级地震低频次活动异常可作为西藏区域内强地震中短期预测指标,并将研究结果应用于西藏地区的预测预报研究工作当中。     

商丹断裂南阳盆地第四纪活动研究

为了研究商丹断裂的空间展布及断裂活动性特征,跨断裂布设了4条浅层地震勘探测线和1条钻孔联合地质剖面。综合分析表明,商丹断裂为一条走向NWW的正断层,钻孔联合地质剖面揭示断裂上断点埋深为13—19 m,最新活动时代为中更新世晚期。     

Evaluating water table response to rainfall events in a shallow aquifer and canal system

Shallow aquifers typically have greater hydrologic connectivity and response to recharge and changes in surface water management practices than deeper aquifers and are therefore often managed to reduce the risk of flooding. Quantification of the water table elevation response under different management scenarios provides valuable information in shallow aquifer systems to assess indirect influences of such modifications. The episodic master recession method was applied to the 15‐min water table elevation and NEXRAD rainfall data for 6 wells to identify water table response and individual rainfall events. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of rainfall, water table elevation, canal stage, site‐specific characteristics, and canal structure modification/water management practice on the fluctuations in water table elevations using multiple/stepwise multiple linear regression techniques. With the modification of canal structure and operation adjustment, significant difference existed in water table response in the southern wells due to its relative downstream position regarding the general groundwater flow direction and the structural modification locations. On average, water table response height and flood risk were lower after than before the structure modification to canals. The effect of rainfall event size on the height of water table response was greater than the effect of antecedent water table elevation and canal stage on the height of water table response. Other factors including leakance of the canal bed sediment, specific yield, and rainfall on i  ? 1 day had significant effects on the height of water table response as well. Antecedent water table elevation and canal stage had greater and more linear effects on the height of water table response after the management changes to canals. Variation in water table response height/rainfall event size ratio was attributed to difference in S _y , antecedent soil water content, hydraulic gradient, rainfall size, and run‐off ratio. After the structure modification, water table response height/rainfall event size ratio demonstrated more linear and proportional relationship with antecedent water table elevation and canal stage.     

甘肃三个台地磁日变赫斯特指数的时序特征

选用甘肃嘉峪关、兰州和天水地磁台2011—2013年的观测数据,重点研究地磁垂直向日变化波形下行段的赫斯特指数变化的时序特征。结果表明,在此3年内,嘉峪关台和兰州台地磁垂直向日变化波形下行段的赫斯特指数变化范围分别是0.08和0.06,天水台在2012年存在一个赫斯特指数幅度超过正常变化范围的过程,在此过程完成后的2013年7月22日,在距离天水130km的漳县和岷县交界发生M6.6地震。结合其他学者的研究结果,认为这一赫斯特指数的异常变化过程可能反映了区域性地球深部(下地壳与上地幔)热物质运移变化而引起地球局部居里面变化,也可能是地震孕育过程在地磁日变中的表征。这一发现有益于进一步研究地磁日变异常的机理、震磁关系以及地震预报的探索。     

基于测震强震仪器健康状态数据的应用集成开发

首先介绍测震和强震仪器健康状态数据的集成方法,然后将方法应用于仪器健康状态分布式监视系统的服务器端设计,并通过综合应用Java EE、消息推送和WebGIS技术实现数据集成基础上的应用集成。系统具有功能实用、性能优异及界面友好的特点,在地震台网应用中有助于提高运维工作效率,同时可为测震强震台网业务系统的综合集成以及同类应用软件的开发提供典型示范。     

综合探测方法在太原盆地东山山前断层探测中的应用

东山山前断层位于太原盆地东部,是盆地北端的边界断层。在多道直流电法和浅层地震勘探初步确定断层位置的基础上,采用钻孔联合剖面探测对断层进行准确定位,并结合年代样品测试确定断层的最新活动时代。通过探测得到:东山山前断层是由三条断层组成的断裂带,长22km,宽约800m。断层上断点埋深约16.7m,错断了中更新世地层,最大断距约23.96 m,断层的最新活动时代为中更新世。此结果修正了前人认为其为晚更新世活动断层的结论。三种探测方法中,多道直流电法勘探只能初步确定断层的位置,采用高分辨率浅层地震勘探和钻孔联合剖面相结合的探测方法是确定隐伏断层位置、判定断层活动性的有效方法。     

山地与平原地形对地震动影响的对比分析

山地和平原地形在破坏性地震中对震害和地震动有很大影响,不同地形对地震动有不同的地形效应。为研究山地和平原地形对地震动的影响规律,基于集集地震后续M L6.6余震的强震观测记录,对位于不同地形且与震中位于同一直线上的四个强震台记录处理计算,从波形特征、频谱分析、加速度反应谱计算、与规范谱比较等方面进行对比分析,完成长周期地震动反应谱分布的计算。研究表明,山地地形对地震动的高频成分有地形放大效应,沉积平原对地震动的低频长周期部分有放大作用,并且长周期反应谱的峰值区域始终位于沉积平原中部。平原上强震记录产生的长周期放大系数谱已超出规范谱,沉积平原上长周期建筑的抗震设防应引起重视。