中国大陆西部GNSS变形特征及其与M≥7.0强震孕育的关系

基于中国大陆地壳运动观测网络GNSS速度场结果,通过最小二乘配置建模、速度残差检验、应变率场分析等,研究了西部地区地壳变形特征及其与M≥7.0强震孕育的关系。主要认识包括：①GNSS应变率场结果显示青藏高原西部地区（92.5°E以西）呈现明显的EW向拉张变形特征,青藏高原东部（92.5°E～100°E）则表现为显著的EW向挤压应变积累。②GNSS旋转率场显示中国大陆西部呈现由南向北逐渐衰减的交替旋转变形现象,藏南地区为大范围顺时针旋转变形特征,旋转率极值达4.5×10^-8rad/a;柴达木地块表现为逆时针旋转变形特征,极值达-1.0×10^-8rad/a;塔里木地块表现为顺时针旋转变形特征,极值达1.0×10^-8rad/a。③2001～2018年中国大陆西部的7次M≥7.0强震均发生在与其构造背景一致的应变积累高值区边缘,呈现一定的孕震晚期特征。因此,最大剪应变率高值区边缘和大型走滑断裂交界部位、张应变率高值区边缘与大型正断层的交界部位、压应变率高值区边缘与大型逆断层交界部位是未来强震需要关注的地点。④2001年昆仑山口西地震导致了青藏高原东部地区较大尺度EW向挤压应变增强现象,在一定程度上反映了巴颜喀拉地块东向运动增强引起的变形调整过程,有利于汶川地震、芦山地震的孕育发生。     

2016年8月24日意大利佩鲁贾MW 6.2级地震同震位移场估计和震源滑动模型反演

利用改进的自动经验基线校正方法SMBLOC,对2016年8月24日意大利佩鲁贾MW 6.2级地震震中周围约60 km内的近场强震记录进行基线校正并尝试给出同震位移场,与GPS观测结果进行对比分析,分别独立和联合两种资料反演震源滑动模型,并根据震源模型进一步给出全空间预测位移场分布.研究结果表明:(1)两种不同的资料给出的水平位移场幅值均为cm级,且均表明断层的错动以正断为主.(2)两种同震位移场分别独立和联合反演所得的震源静态滑动范围基本一致,最大滑动均发生在震中东北侧,强震模型表现出明显的双事件特征,较大滑动分布在震中东北侧和东南侧,GPS模型在震中东南侧的滑动相对较小,其双事件特征不明显.两种模型的最大滑动量分别为0.96 m和0.86 m,较为一致,反演的矩震级均在MW 6.3左右.(3)根据震源滑动模型计算所得的佩鲁贾地震全空间预测的水平同震位移场中最大位移分布区域与震后报告中受灾严重的地区基本一致.表明在一定的条件下,利用SMBLOC方法解算震级较小的MW 6.0左右地震强震记录的同震位移场,并反演震源滑动模型具有一定的可行性,且其同震位移场和滑动模型可为震后灾害快速评估、救援力量分配、余震趋势判定等快速应急响应工作提供参考依据.     

Effects of anisotropic diffusion on onset of rotating magnetoconvection in plane layer; stationary modes

ABSTRACT

Turbulence in the Earth's outer core not only increases all diffusive coefficients, but it can lead to their anisotropic properties. Therefore, the model of rotating magnetoconvection in horizontal plane layer rotating about vertical axis and permeated by homogeneous horizontal magnetic field, influenced by anisotropic diffusivities, viscosity and thermal diffusivity, is advanced by considering the magnetic diffusivity as anisotropic too. The case of full anisotropy, i.e. all coefficients anisotropic, is compared with both the case possessing isotropic diffusion coefficients and the case of partial anisotropy, i.e. mixed case with isotropic and anisotropic diffusive coefficients (viscosity and thermal diffusivity anisotropic and magnetic diffusivity isotropic). The existence and preference of instabilities is sensitive to all non-dimensional parameters, as well as on anisotropic parameter, the ratio of horizontal and vertical diffusivities. Two types of anisotropy, BM (introduced by Braginsky and Meytlis) and SA (stratification anisotropy) are studied. BM as well as SA were applied by ?oltis and Brestenský to the study of the partial anisotropy; this study is extended, in this paper, to full anisotropy cases (full SA and full BM) and it is shown that the style of convection given by the onset of stationary modes is more affected by anisotropic diffusivities in BM than in SA anisotropy. The important influence of strong anisotropies in the Earth's core dynamics is stressed.     

中国大陆几次强地震长波辐射异常分析

大地震前存在长波辐射异常已被许多震例所证实,为进一步分析强地震前的长波辐射异常变化特征,提取其异常的判定指标。以多年静止卫星长波辐射资料（OLR）为基础,应用小波变换和功率谱估计方法对中国大陆6级以上地震进行分析研究。结果表明,6次强地震前三个月内均出现不同程度的长波辐射异常现象,与以前震例分析结果较为一致。空间上在震中及其附近区域异常整体呈现开始-增强-极值-减弱-消失过程,异常最大值时大于多年均值的1倍标准偏差的范围面积达数万到十几万km²,异常最大值时相对功率谱幅值均在10倍以上;时间上震中附近小区域相对功率谱幅值持续偏离多年均值的1倍标准偏差,持续偏离时间介于40~75天。这些强地震的异常判定指标具有短期预测指示意义。     

基于Matlab的强震数据处理技术实现

强震动观测数据通常由强震仪原始二进制加速度记录组成,在国内外相关强震数据库下载的强震记录均为解码、处理后的ASCII格式文本文件,非原始文件,记录格式不同,但均由数据头段和数据区2部分组成。以我国未校正加速度记录(UA)数据格式为例,探讨基于Matlab程序的强震数据处理技术,并识别记录的地震动特性,为强震数据多领域应用提供技术支持。     

EXPLORATION OF UNDERWATER THREE-DIMENSIONAL TOPOGRAPHY AND ACTIVE FAULTS: A CASE STUDY OF QIONGHAI,XICHANG

The theories, techniques and methods for the exploration of active faults in the terrestrial domain are relatively mature, while such efforts in the water domain remain very few. In this study, the AAE shallow profiler was used to detect the underwater three-dimensional topography and active faults in the Qionghai area, Xichang for the first time. Based on the SKUA-GOCAD software platform and its DSI interpolation method, three-dimensional modeling of the exploration data was carried out. The survey profiles clearly reveal three different reflection interfaces, including the underwater interface, the interface between the silt layer and shallow sedimentary layer, and the bottom of the shallow sedimentary layer. The three-dimensional topography of the Qionghai area was mapped initially. Moreover, evidence of active faults was first found in several survey profiles from the reflection interface cutoff. This study also analyzed and discussed the working principle and characteristics of the AAE shallow profiler, including their parameters and various factors of exploration. The mapped three-dimensional topography and active faults in the Qionghai area of Xichang can provide a reference for research on the active tectonics underwater in the future.     

强震下高层建筑横向晃动反应过程模拟分析

传统的静力弹塑性分析方法对强震作用下的高层建筑的横向晃动反应过程模拟时,存在计算结果不准确、计算用时较长的问题。提出新的强震下高层建筑横向晃动反应过程模拟分析方法,其基于直接积分法的三种方法实施模拟分析。分别是隐式方法、显式方法以及KK模型方法。其中隐式方法和显式方法均能够对不同自由度下的高层建筑的横向晃动位移作出准确的计算,KK模型通过高层建筑Von Mises屈服面,分析高层建筑钢材Bauschinger反应基础上,精确模拟出高层建筑在横向晃动反应中的变形过程。实验结果说明,所提方法对强震作用下的高层建筑的横向晃动反应的运算准确率和效率较高。     

STUDY ON DYNAMIC CHANGE OF GRAVITY FIELD IN XIANSHUIHE FAULT ZONE AND THEIR RELATION TO THE OCCURRENCE OF MS ≥ 5.0 EARTHQUAKES

Xianshuihe Fault, a main strong earthquake activity belt in southwest China, begins from Ganzi in the northwest, passes through Luhuo, Daofu, and Kangding, and then extents along the Dadu River valley. The fault is divided into two parts at Shimian, one part turns to south and converses to Anninghe Fault extending further to south, the other part, continuing to extend to southeast, cutting through Xiaoxiangling and then changing to Daliangshan Faults in the north of the Yuexi Basin, has the length of about 400km. Since 1700AD, there have happened 22 earthquakes larger than magnitude 6.0 and 8 earthquakes larger than magnitude 7.0. In this paper, we systematically collated and computed the gravity repetition measurement data along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1988, and by referring to the anomaly index of gravity field of the predecessor achievements, analyzed the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity field and the relation to the occurrence of ≥ M_S5.0 earthquakes. The mechanism of the regional gravity changes is further studied, and also the implication of strong earthquake risk because of the dynamic variation of gravity field in the near future is discussed.The results show that:1)The mobile gravity observation has the ability to detect crustal activity and M_S ≥ 5.0 earthquake events. 2)There is definite correspondence between interannual gravitational field change and the 8 earthquakes among the 13 M_S ≥ 5.0 earthquakes occurring in the surveying area since 1988, which can be determined according to the change of interannual gravitational field. Three M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes occurred 3~4 years after the abnormal image was developed, 4 earthquakes that occurred in the region of no data available were not determined. 3)A significant feature of the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity is a north-south run-through image before 2004, and characterized by the alternatively positive or negative variation in different year, the earthquakes of M_S ≥ 5.0 occurring in this period were not distributed along the fault. Gravity variation magnitude indicates that there were two similar crustal material movement waves before 2004, corresponding to the course of earthquake space-time distribution from strong to weak in the study area. After 2010, the variation image shows that the local positive and negative zones are concurrent within a year, different from the image before 2004, and earthquakes of M_S ≥ 5.0 basically occurred on the fault. It is believed that the variation of gravity field since 1988 and the seismic distribution fit with the geodynamic mode of strong and weak stages of the northeast motion of Indian plate. According to the conclusion we can try to optimize gravity anomaly index. After the Kangding earthquake in 2014, the north segment of Moxi Fault was still subject to negative high value changes till 2017 and then the gravity variation was further developed to a four quadrant distribution image. Based on the analysis of this paper and the previous variation trend of gravity field, we believe that the north segment of Moxi Fault has the background of medium-long term, strong or large earthquake risk.     

2013年甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震仪器烈度与宏观调查烈度比较分析

对西北强震动台网中心收集的2013年7月22日甘肃岷县-漳县M_S6.6地震117组三分向加速度记录进行处理和初步分析,计算出相应的仪器烈度值。将该值与岷县漳县地震烈度图（中国地震局,2013）中的烈度区值进行对比,偏差在1度以内的占台站总数的81.8%。将地震仪器烈度与强震台站周边5 km内调查点烈度对比分析,完全吻合的台站占50%,略低于芦山地震58.6%。灾害调查分析认为岷县-漳县地震灾区建筑以土木结构和木结构为主,在相同烈度情况下,破坏比例大于其他地区。因此,虽然仪器烈度与震后宏观调查烈度不能达到完全吻合,但前者在一定程度上反映了震害情况,可快速为应急救援决策提供依据。另外,震后宏观烈度资料是一定区域范围内的平均或延伸,而强震数据只是个别点上的数据,不能忽略两者之间的差异性。     

地震台站管理与仪器装备运行保障系统

为了提高地震观测台站的信息化管理水平,保障仪器装备高效稳定运行,促进台网数据交互共享,针对台站管理和装备保障业务关于省地震局-市县地震局-中心台的三级用户需求,以台站基础信息管理、仪器运行状态监控、技术保障信息管理为设计主线,利用ASP.NET 4.0和SQL Server 2008技术,以B/S模式采用Visual C#语言设计一套基于Web的地震台站和技术设备管理保障系统。用户根据不同权限,通过局域网即可实现对台站和仪器设备的基本信息管理、仪器安装运行管理、设备维护维修登记、实时设备运行监控、运行统计评估报表产出、信息展示等功能,具有较好的实用价值和推广前景。