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51.
Introduction The MS=8.1 earthquake occurred in west of the Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. It is the greatest earthquake occurred in China since the last half of the century and is an important event in recent seismic history of China. Some specialists consider that the earthquake occurred in the area where the earthquake monitoring capability is lowest in Chinese mainland; no striking precursory seismicity was found. The study on the precursory seismicity before the earthquake has not b… 相似文献
52.
The main objective of the research work isthe homogenisation of the two recentAlgerian earthquake catalogues for thecommon covered period of time, from 1900 to1990, for the region under considerationlimited by [33°N–38°N,4°E-9.5°E] and the updatingof the catalogue for the twentieth century(1900–2000). To mitigate the deficiencyof the incompleteness of catalogue, aneffort was made to establish a correlationbetween surface-wave magnitude Ms andbody-wave magnitude mb in the form ofMs = a + b (mb). A complete, exact andhomogeneous earthquake catalogue as much aspossible, comprising 870 seismic events,has been compiled. Seismicity analysis ofthe region shows a strong concentration ofseismicity along a band of no more than400 km width oriented mainly in theeast-west direction parallel to the coast.Moreover, earthquakes in this zone arerather associated to strike-slip mechanism.The focal mechanism show a regional stressregime that corresponds to horizontalcompression in NW-SE to N-S direction. As aresult of the review of the seismicity ofnorth-eastern Algeria from the compilationof checked and corrected data and itscorrelation with other geologic andgeophysical investigations based ondocumentary sources, it was possible toconstruct a most complete seismotectonicmap. It leads also to delineate fourseismogenic zones in the Tellian Atlas, aless important zone in the Saharan Atlas, asixth zone at the boundary of both Atlasand finally, a seventh one along thecoastal zone. The seismicity-active faultscorrelation of some of these defined zonesis examined in details with a specialattention to the Saharan Atlas zone, theHodna and Biban zone as well as Soummam andBabor zone where further research workallowed to find some neotectonic featuresconsidered as a significant sign of recenttectonic activity. 相似文献
53.
The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km2 catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
54.
Flexure of the Indian plate and intraplate earthquakes 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The flexural bulge in central India resulting from India's collision with Tibet has a wavelength of approximately 670 km.
It is manifest topographically and in the free-air gravity anomaly and the geoid. Calculations of the stress distribution
within a flexed Indian plate reveal spatial variations throughout the depth of the plate and also a function of distance from
the Himalaya. The wavelength (and therefore local gradient) of stress variation is a function of the effective elastic thickness
of the plate, estimates of which have been proposed to lie in the range 40–120 km. The imposition of this stress field on
the northward moving Indian plate appears fundamental to explaining the current distribution of intraplate earthquakes and
their mechanisms. The current study highlights an outer trough south of the flexural bulge in central India where surface
stresses are double the contiguous compressional stresses to the north and south. The Bhuj, Latur and Koyna earthquakes and
numerous other recent reverse faulting events occurred in this compressional setting. The N/S spatial gradient of stress exceeds
2 bars/km near the flexural bulge. The overall flexural stress distribution provides a physical basis for earthquake hazard
mapping and suggests that areas of central India where no historic earthquakes are recorded may yet be the locus of future
damaging events. 相似文献
55.
Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain 总被引:9,自引:3,他引:9
Remondo Juan González Alberto De Terán José Ramón Díaz Cendrero Antonio Fabbri Andrea Chung Chang-Jo F. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):437-449
A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps. 相似文献
56.
2001年11月14日在昆仑山口西发生了8.1级地震,震中位置为90.9E、36.2N.分析表明,8.1级地震前一些主要地震活动性异常都出现了,例如空区、条带、增强、平静和震群等,且与7级大震比较,这些前兆图象的演变具有类似的过程,所不同的是8.1级地震的前兆地震活动图象涉及的区域范围更大、地震震级更高,这为特大地震的前兆识别和预报提供了依据.最后回顾了对这次大震的粗略预测,并讨论了有关大震预测的某些问题. 相似文献
57.
应用神经网络建立加速度峰值衰减规律 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
在假定了加速度峰值衰减规律的形式后,本采用人工神经网络拟合实际加速度峰值观测资料来求取方程中的待定系数。为加速神经网络的训练,本设计了基于BP学习算法的目标分段网络训练法。 相似文献
58.
59.
论述了在1995~1996年云南地区发生的孟连西南7.3级,武定6.5级和丽江7.0级3次强烈地震的孕育过程中,近源区中小地震的异常增频特点和临震前大气压力的突变共性,并据此提出,强震的发生乃是地壳内外力涨落地加剧的结果。 相似文献
60.
湖南省黄石水库诱发地震的形成条件及成因探讨 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
在湖南桃源县黄石水库库区,由于张扭性活断层和深部岩溶的存在,水库蓄水后产生的附加应力场及水库区增强的岩石孔隙流体压力诱发了断层的断滑,使得库区应力集中区和岩溶发育区合二为一的地带发生构造型地震,从而在震活动的时间序列、空间规律,地震与库水位关系,震源深度、震情等方面表现出构造水库诱发地震的特点。 相似文献