精细化监测资料在山西暴雨预报模型改进中的应用

利用近3年5—9月山西63个GPS/MET临测站反演的逐时气柱水汽总量空间分布图与对应的459天气象观测资料、12个暴雨日的暴雨落区以及对应的流型配置图,对比分析发现:(1)当气柱水汽总量空间分布的水平梯度在25～40 mm/l经(纬)度时,未来12～36小时,在水平梯度的大值区及其南北(东西)0.5～1.0个经(纬)度的范围内,暴雨及其以上天气出现的概率达100%,当气柱水汽总量空间分布的水平梯度≥40 mm/l经(纬)度时,在水平梯度的大值区及其南北(东西)0.5个经(纬)度的范围内出现大暴雨的慨率为63.6%;(2)暴雨落区在气柱水汽总量空间分布图中水汽含量水平梯度大值区及其以北(西)还是以南(东)0.5～1.0)个经(纬)度的范围出现,不同的流型配置会出现不同的结果。应用逐时GPS/MET资料和逐时自动气象站极大风速风场资料,依据暴雨出现在气柱水汽总量空间分布图中水汽含量水平梯度大值区的不同位置,建立不同流型配置下的多种暴雨概念模型;采用轮廓识别技术在C/S架构下,对12～36小时暴雨落区预报模型进行改进并实现了自动化运行,2011年进行准业务使用证明效果良好。     

基于MODIS数据的增强型土壤表层水分含量指数模型构造与应用

土壤水分含量对光谱变化的影响和植被冠层的光谱反射率是干旱最重要和最直接的指标.根据水的吸收率光谱变化特征和绿色植物有效光谱响应特征曲线,在前期提出的地表含水量指数(SWCI)的基础上,增加MO-DIS通道1的红光光谱,以增强植被对光谱吸收的变化反应,可应用于大范围且快速的浅层土壤墒情遥感监测.通过与土壤表层水分含量指数(SWCI)对比分析发现,在对浅层(0～30 cm)土壤水分进行监测时,ESWCI比SWCI更为敏感,这将有助于在实时干旱动态监测中更好地提高监测精度.     

基于球谐函数模型的电离层预报

据球谐函数模型系数的特点,采用ARMA(p,q)模型对球谐函数模型系数进行预报,由球谐函数模型计算电离层VTEC。提出了针对某一时刻球谐系数进行预报的方法,相比传统按照时刻顺序的预报,预报时间大大延长,预报精度也有所提高。试验结果表明,相比中高纬度地区,低纬度地区预报精度偏低,同时,一天中不同时刻预报结果有所差别,前半天的预报效果明显好于后半天。     

一次高压型海雾中的液态含水量演变特征

2008年3月16—17日在粤西电白出现了一次在高压天气系统控制下的海雾过程。利用这次海雾的综合观测数据,分析了这一高压型海雾的液态含水量演变特征,讨论了液态含水量与雾滴平均直径和数密度以及气温、风速、湍流交换等的关系。结果显示:(1)海雾有发展-消散-再发展的准周期性变化特征;(2)海雾过程中的雾滴数有显著的变化,而雾滴平均直径的变化较小;雾滴数变化对海雾的发展、消散起主要作用;(3)在海雾生成和发展阶段,空气的冷却机制起主要作用;而在海雾的维持阶段冷却机制的作用并不明显;(4)在雾的生成阶段,弱湍流交换有利于雾的生成;而在雾的发展和维持阶段,湍流交换减弱,液态水增长,反之液态水减少。湍流交换的强、弱与海雾发展-消散-再发展的周期性变化有密切关系。     

Age and metallicity of compact stellar systems in Virgo and Fornax

From high signal-to-noise ratio GMOS-N and AAOmega spectra, we have measured line-strength indices in the Lick/IDS system for several luminous and spatially dispersed compact stellar systems (CSSs) located in the Virgo and Fornax galaxy clusters. We estimate their [α/Fe] ratios, ages and metallicities using a simple (single-burst) stellar population model. We confirm that the Virgo core region luminous CSSs (     ) contain ancient stellar populations with subsolar total metallicities, suggesting that they comprise the bright tail of M87's GC distribution. The two Virgo intracluster globular clusters have ages and metallicities consistent with the cluster core CSSs. Two Fornax luminous CSSs also have ancient stellar populations but are at the upper end of the Virgo CSS metallicity range, while the third (UCD3) appears to be relatively young, metal-rich and with a core + halo radial profile. Our results suggest that Fornax may contain an extra population of luminous CSSs formed more recently than the ancient GC-like systems found in both clusters.     

Optical and near-infrared colours as a discriminant of the age and metallicity of stellar populations

We present a comprehensive analysis of the ability of current stellar population models to reproduce the optical ( ugriz ) and near-infrared ( JHK ) colours of a small sample of well-studied nearby elliptical and S0 galaxies. We find broad agreement between the ages and metallicities derived using different population models, although different models show different systematic deviations from the measured broad-band fluxes. Although it is possible to constrain simple stellar population models to a well-defined area in age–metallicity space, there is a clear degeneracy between these parameters even with such a full range of precise colours. The precision to which age and metallicity can be determined independently, using only broad-band photometry with realistic errors, is  Δ[Fe/H]≃ 0.18  and  Δlog Age ≃ 0.25  . To constrain the populations and therefore the star formation history further, it will be necessary to combine broad-band optical–IR photometry with either spectral line indices, or else photometry at wavelengths outside this range.