冬季西太平洋暖池与华南降水关系的年代际变化

利用1951-2010年全国台站冬季降水观测资料、Hadley环流中心逐月海表温度资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,探讨了西太平洋暖池与我国华南地区冬季降水的关系。结果表明,西太平洋暖池与我国华南冬季降水的年际关系在1972年发生了明显的年代际转折,20世纪70年代前两者弱的负相关未通过信度检验,而70年代后两者相关系数达到-0.5~-0.6。回归分析显示,70年代前,暖池对产生华南冬季降水的水汽条件以及动力条件等的影响不显著,因此其与华南冬季降水的关系不明显。70年代后,暖池偏暖时,在菲律宾海区域激发出一个显著的气旋性环流,该环流西北侧的偏北风不利于南海地区水汽向我国华南地区输送,华南地区水汽辐散增强,而且南支槽地区对流减弱,南支扰动不活跃且扰动不能向下游地区传播,华南地区扰动活动减弱,此外暖池偏暖使北半球经向环流显著增强,且下沉支位于我国华南地区,加强了华南地区的下沉运动,因而华南地区冬季降水显著偏少;暖池偏冷时,情况相反。     

全球变暖减缓背景下欧亚秋冬温度变化特征和原因

采用气候序列变化趋势诊断和一元线性回归等分析法,研究和讨论了2000-2012年和1976-1999年两种年代际背景下全球陆地不同区域的年平均地表温度的变化特征。发现欧亚大陆中高纬度地区是对全球变暖减缓贡献最大的区域。且该地区在2000年以来秋季年代际增温,而冬季年代际降温。从同期大气环流的配置来看,在对流层低层,秋季西伯利亚高气压年代际减弱,而冬季西伯利亚高气压年代际增强。在对流层中高层,秋季从西欧至东北亚为"高-低-高"的高度场异常分布,纬向环流加强,经向环流减弱,而冬季极地与贝加尔湖地区的高度场呈偶极型分布,东亚大槽加深,经向环流加强。进一步研究发现,超前一个季节的喀拉海附近的海冰与欧亚中高纬度秋冬两季温度的年代际变率有着密切的联系。一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少影响秋季(冬季)中高纬度大气环流;另一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少,使得秋季(冬季)从北极至中高纬度大陆的对流层低层水汽含量增加(减少),大气逆辐射增强(减弱)导致秋季(冬季)增温(降温)。     

2008年1月贵州冻雨的数值模拟和层结结构分析

针对2008年初发生在贵州地区的严重冻雨过程,分别从环流背景、低空急流和水汽输送条件等方面分析了准静止锋维持的原因,并选取本次灾害最严重的第3次过程为典型个例,利用WRF模式针对准静止锋影响下的贵州冻雨进行数值模拟来研究冻雨的发生机制。模拟结果较好地反映出高低空环流形势场特征,强雨雪降水带的走向、落区,以及地面温度的分布,均与观测基本吻合。通过分析高分辨率模式的模拟结果,揭示了准静止锋上贵州地区冻雨的层结结构特征及云物质在冻雨区的分布特征。研究结果表明,贵州中部的冻雨区除一般的三层结构(包含冰晶层、暖层和冷层)外,还具有典型的两层结构特征,即:高空的固体降水粒子稀少,900~600 h Pa深厚的逆温层和0℃以上的暖层使中低空存在大量液态粒子,下落的液滴经过近地面的浅薄冷层,形成大量过冷却雨滴,而后降落至地面迅速冻结。     

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN JUNES

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr (1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season (April to June), the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator (MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive (negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3 (phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.     

长江中游城市群空间结构的多分形特征

在城市群越来越演化为多尺度、多区域复杂系统背景下,有必要引入多分形理论与方法研究其空间结构。本文基于2018年NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据,计算长江中游城市群整体及其局部的多分维谱,根据谱线分析不同尺度下长江中游城市空间结构的多分形特征。结果显示：① 长江中游城市群夜间灯光容量维在整体和局部都出现双标度现象。② q < -5.5时,整体广义关联维谱线突破理论上限2,在q > 0时,武汉城市圈和环长株潭城市群的分维显著较高。③ 整体的局部分维谱和武汉城市圈、环长株潭城市群、环鄱阳湖城市群、宜荆荆城市群局部分维谱表现为单峰偏右。根据上述结果,得到和验证了以下结论：① 长江中游城市群区域一体化程度较低。② 长江中游城市群不同层级和区域的空间结构差异显著,呈现出多尺度复杂特征。③ 长江中游城市群在不同尺度中均倾向于中心集聚式发展。研究揭示多分形模型能够从尺度依赖视角有效揭示巨型城市群空间结构的复杂性及其背后的问题,具有很好的理论探索和实践分析前景。     

近50年来东莞气温年际变化的长期特征分析

运用福建省25个代表站汛期降水量资料，得到了能够反映全省旱涝状况指标，以此指标为预报量，运用相关分析和逐步回归分析方法，从前期海温场、大气环流场中选取了预报因子，并据此建立了福建汛期旱涝的多元线性回归和RBF神经网络预测模型。结果表明，RBF神经网络模型在历史样本拟合精度上、样本交叉检验和模型的实际预测能力上都明显优于传统的线性回归方法，该模型在实际预测中具有良好的应用能力和推广价值。     

论四川盆地地下卤水资源开发利用的现状及对策

四川盆地地下卤水资源储量大,卤水浓度较高,并含有I、Br、K、Li等多种有用组分。地下卤水多沿构造隆起部位富集,并具有天然气和卤水同层的特点。指出目前对地下卤水开发利用发展不均的现状,以及多以制盐为主,开发利用单一等现象。提出深化对地下卤水资源量的评价,加强对地下卤水综合利用的研究,组成跨行业的开发实体等建议。     

Microbial life in martian ice: A biotic origin of methane on Mars?

Despite the fact that microbial cells are unlikely to be found in the Martian soil in the near future, this paper is written on the assumption that some of the seasonally varying concentration of Martian methane is due to ongoing methanogenesis. It is first pointed out that life might have arisen on Mars first and been transported to Earth later. A case is made that an icy origin of life is more likely than a hot origin, especially if biomolecules take advantage of the high encounter rates and stability against hydrolysis, and that microorganisms feed on the ions that comprise eutectic solutions in ice. Although certain difficulties are avoided if RNA and DNA grow while adsorbed on clay grains, double strand-breaks of microbial DNA due to alpha radioactivity are a far greater threat to microbial survival on clay or other rock types than in ice. Developing a relation between the rate of microbial metabolism in ice and the experimentally determined rate of production of trapped gases of microbial origin, one can estimate the concentration of methanogens that could account for the methane production rate as a function of temperature of their habitat. The result, of order 1 cell cm⁻³ in the Martian subsurface, seems an attainable goal provided samples are taken from at least 1 or 2 m below the hostile surface of Mars. Instruments on NASA’s 2011 Mars Science Lab will measure stable isotopes for methane, water, and carbon dioxide, which on Earth served to distinguish abiotic, thermogenic, and microbial origins. Future measurements of chirality of biomolecules might also provide evidence for Martian life.     

Observed winds,turbulence, and dispersion in built-up downtown areas of Oklahoma City and Manhattan

Wind and tracer data from the Oklahoma City Joint Urban 2003 (JU2003) and the Manhattan Madison Square Garden 2005 (MSG05) urban field experiments are being analyzed to aid in understanding air flow and dispersion near street-level in built-up downtown areas. The mean winds are separately calculated for groups of anemometers having similar exposures such as “near street level” and “on building top”. Several general results are found, such as the scalar wind speed at street level is about 1/3 of that at building top. Turbulent standard deviations of wind speed components and temperature, and vertical fluxes of momentum and sensible heat, are calculated from sonic anemometers near street level at 20 locations in JU2003 and five locations in MSG05, and from two rooftop locations in MSG05. The turbulence observations are consistent with observations in the literature at other cities, although the JU2003 and MSG05 data are unique in that many data are available near street level. For example, it is found that the local (i.e., at the measuring height) averages about 1.5 and the local averages about 0.25 in the two cities, where is the standard deviation of vertical velocity fluctuations, is the friction velocity, and u is the wind speed. The ratio of temperature fluctuations to temperature scale, , averages about −3 in both cities, consistent with similarity theory for slightly unstable conditions, where is the standard deviation of temperature fluctuations, and is the temperature scale. The calculated Obukhov length, L, is also consistent with slightly unstable conditions near street level, even at night during JU2003. The SF₆ tracer concentration observations from JU2003 are analyzed. Values of for the continuous releases are calculated for each release and arc distance, where is the 30-min average arc maximum concentration, Q is the continuous source emission rate, and u is the spatial-averaged wind speed in the downtown area. The basic characteristics of the JU2003 plot of averaged agree reasonably well with similar plots for other urban experiments in Salt Lake City and London (i.e., at . A is found to be about 3 during the day and about 10 during the night.     

H<Emphasis Type="Italic">α</Emphasis> survey of the local volume: Isolated southern galaxies

We present our Hα observations of 11 isolated southern galaxies: SDIG, PGC 51659, E 222-010, E 272-025, E 137-018, IC 4662, Sag DIG, IC 5052, IC 5152, UGCA 438, and E 149-003, with distances from 1 to 7 Mpc. We have determined the total Hα fluxes from these galaxies. The star formation rates in these galaxies range from 10^?1 (IC 4662) to 10^?4 M _⊙ yr^?1 (SDIG) and the gas depletion time at the observed star formation rates lies within the range from 1/6 to 24 Hubble times H ₀ ^?1 .