Identifying climate services needs for national planning: insights from Malawi

The importance of climate services, i.e. providing targeted, tailored, and timely weather and climate information, has gained momentum, but requires improved understanding of user needs. This article identifies the opportunities and barriers to the use of climate services for planning in Malawi, to identify the types of information that can better inform future adaptation decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. From policy analysis, stakeholder interviews, and a national workshop utilizing serious games, it is determined that only 5–10 day and seasonal forecasts are currently being used in government decision making. Impediments to greater integration of climate services include spatial and temporal scale, accessibility, timing, credibility and the mismatch in timeframes between planning cycles (1–5 years) and climate projections (over 20 years). Information that could more usefully inform planning decisions includes rainfall distribution within a season, forecasts with 2–3 week lead times, likely timing and location of extreme events in the short term (1–5 years), and projections (e.g. rainfall and temperature change) in the medium term (6–20 years). Development of a national set of scenarios would also make climate information more accessible to decision makers, and capacity building around such scenarios would enable its improved use in short- to medium-term planning. Improved climate science and its integration with impact models offer exciting opportunities for integrated climate-resilient planning across sub-Saharan Africa. Accrual of positive impacts requires enhanced national capacity to interpret climate information and implement communication strategies across sectors.

Policy relevance

For climate services to achieve their goal of improving adaptation decision making, it is necessary to understand the decision making process and how and when various types of weather and climate information can be incorporated. Through a case study of public sector planning in Malawi, this article highlights relevant planning and policy-making processes. The current use of weather and climate information and needs, over various timescales – sub-annual to short term (1–5 years) to medium term (6–20 years) – is outlined. If climate scientists working with boundary organizations are able to address these issues in a more targeted, sector-facing manner they will improve the uptake of climate services and the likelihood of climate-resilient decisions across sub-Saharan Africa.     

荒漠植物苦豆子和苦马豆种子硬实特性与活力关系研究

 以荒漠边缘采集的苦豆子和苦马豆种子为材料,研究其硬实特性及其与活力的关系。结果表明,每日内吸胀的种子数量随时间推移,以一定比列下降,苦豆子非硬实种子吸胀速率较缓慢,第10天后吸胀率降到1%,苦马豆非硬实种子第3天后下降到1%,第13—16天突然上升后又下降到1%。两种豆类种子都显示出硬实种子发芽率、发芽指数、活力指数、脱氢酶、呼吸速率、超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)均高于非硬实种子,而电导率、浸出液可溶性糖和丙二醛(MDA)低于非硬实种子,缓慢吸胀的硬实种子活力指标高于快速吸胀的硬实种子,这表明硬实种子吸胀过程中存在吸胀损伤。而在非硬实种子中,根据以上活力指标判断,晚吸胀的种子比早吸胀的种子活力高。     

Dendrogeomorphic dating of rockfalls on low‐latitude,high‐elevation slopes: Rodadero,Iztaccíhuatl volcano,Mexico

Dynamics and rates of rockfalls have been repeatedly studied in mountain environments with archival records as well as lichenometric, radiocarbon or dendrogeomorphic approaches. In this study, we test the potential of conifers growing at a low‐latitude, high‐elevation site as a dendrogeomorphic tool to reconstruct to calendar dates associated rockfall activity. Analysis is based on tree‐ring records of Mexican mountain pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) growing at timberline [~4000 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] and at the runout fringe of a north–northeast (NNE)‐facing slope of the dormant Iztaccíhuatl volcano (Mexico), which is subject to frequent rockfalls. The potential and limitations of tree‐ring data are demonstrated based on 67 rockfall impacts dated in the increment‐ring series of 24 trees since ad 1836. While findings of this paper are site‐specific, the study clearly shows the potential of dendrogeomorphic approaches in extra‐Alpine, low‐latitude environments and for the understanding of rockfall processes in space and time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

巴旦木春季低温霜冻灾害的气象指标分析

摘要：以3个当地主栽品种（莎车1号、莎车14号和莎车18号）为试材,在春季巴旦杏花蕾期至开花期,利用高精度冰箱进行花蕾、花朵和叶低温霜冻害模拟试验,结合历史灾情资料分析春季低温霜冻的强度与发生时段,确定巴旦杏晚霜冻冻害气象指标。结果表明,在开花期若遇到-4.0℃低温且持续2h,会出现轻度冻害;-4.0℃低温若持续4h,莎车1号（纸皮）、莎车14号（叶尔羌）和莎车18号（晚丰）三个品种均会发生冻害,减产幅度达到20%左右;若-6.0℃的低温霜冻持续达2h,三个品种都会发生严重冻害。     

Concentration of particulate organic nitrogen in the marlborough sounds,New Zealand (note)

Samples of particulate matter were analysed for nitrogen by the micro‐Kjeldahl technique in an attempt to obtain an indication of the food available for mussels. The small amounts of nitrogen available in the samples prevented the detection of seasonal variation by this method. The mean concentration of 11.8 μg‐at of nitrogen per litre obtained from this study compares favourably with data from mussel farming areas in Spain.     

2003年夏季中国江南异常高温的分析研究

2003年夏季在中国江南出现了大范围异常高温天气,无论其绝对高温值、还是持续时间之长都创下了历史记录,给工农业生产及人民生活造成巨大损失.作者对异常高温发生的直接原因及其可能机制进行了初步分析,发现西太平洋副热带高压的极度持续偏强和西伸是直接原因,而西太平洋副热带高压形势的持续异常是多系统综合作用的结果.初步分析表明,热带太平洋一印度洋海温、中西太平洋跨赤道气流异常、平流层过程以及全球增暖的背景条件是其重要机制.     

强渗透性地层旋挖钻施工混凝土灌注桩质量通病分析

对强渗透性地层旋挖钻进成孔混凝土灌注桩质量通病进行了分析,总结此类地层必须重视泥浆护壁质量对混凝土灌注桩施工质量的重大影响,必须重视钻斗的活塞抽吸对孔壁的破坏性,建议其验收标准中增加泥浆护壁质量验收,重视清孔后的孔径验收,不可完全沿用与旋挖钻孔泥浆护壁效果有着天壤区别的回转钻、潜水钻成孔混凝土灌注桩的质量验收标准。     

放射性肺损伤的CT分析

目的：分析放射性肺损伤的CT表现，评价其CT诊断价值。材料与方法：收集资料完整的放射性肺损伤病人160例，对其CT表现回顾性分析与平片表现进行比较。结果：160例首诊表现为放射性肺炎者66例，过渡期者40例，瘢痕期者54例。CT表现：急性放射性肺炎期表现为照射野内出现均匀的密度稍高影或仅表现为轻度的肺野透光度减低，过渡期表现为照射野内出现均匀的密度稍高影或仅表现为轻度的肺野透光度减低，过渡期表现为照射野内索条影夹杂小斑片影，瘢痕期表现为照射野内浓密的索条影及斑片影，范围缩小。CT显示急性放射性损伤平均较平片早1-2周，且对于隐秘部位病灶显示、各期区分、肺损伤与原发灶（或复发）区分CT明显较平片更容易、精确。结论：CT能明确显示放射性肺损伤的影像学表现及大体分明，具有较平片更高的敏感性，对临床有较好的指导与鉴别作用。     

广东冬季寒害对香蕉产量的影响

广东丰富的气候资源有利于香蕉生产的发展，但冬季寒害仍可使香蕉生产遭受重大损失，即使冬季最温暖的粤西南亦难幸免。阐述了广东香蕉寒害发生的情况，对几次突出的冬季寒害及其危害进行分析。严重影响广东香蕉主产区的寒害虽然平均约5年左右一遇，但是20世纪90年代寒害出现较频繁，加上反季节种植的春夏蕉由于经济效益较高，种植面积迅速扩大，使得其抽蕾或花芽分化在冬季，造成香蕉遭受寒害的几率增大，对香蕉产量影响很大。为此，广东香蕉生产的发展要重视寒害、风害及市场变化带来的风险，必须因地因时制宜，合理布局，搞好防灾减灾。     

Estimating Injury and Loss of Life in Floods: A Deterministic Framework

This paper presents an outline methodology and an operational framework for assessing and mapping the risk of death or serious harm to people from flooding, covering death and physical injuries as a direct and immediate consequence of deep and/or fast flowing floodwaters (usually by drowning), and deaths and physical injuries associated with the flood event (but occurring in the immediate aftermath). The main factors that affect death or injury to people during floods include flow velocity, flow depth, and the degree to which people are exposed to the flood. The exposure potential is related to such factors as the “suddenness” of flooding (and amount of flood warning), the extent of the floodplain, people’s location on the floodplain, and the character of their accommodation. In addition, risks to people are affected by social factors including their vulnerability and behaviour. A methodology is described for estimating the likely annual number of deaths/injuries. This is based on defining zones of different flood hazard and, for each zone, estimating the total number of people located there, the proportion that are likely to be exposed to a flood, and the proportion of those exposed who are likely to be injured or killed during a flood event. The results for each zone are combined to give an overall risk for each flood cell and/or community. The objective of the research reported here is to develop a method which could be applied using a map-based approach in which flood risks to people are calculated and displayed spatially for selected areas or communities. The information needed for each part of the process is described in the paper, and the further research to provide the required information is identified.