Statistical and empirical analyses of the triggers of coastal chalk cliff failure

The triggering factors of rock falls remain unknown due to a lack of exhaustive, regular and accurate surveys. Based on an inventory of 331 rock falls collected weekly between 2002 and 2009 from Veules‐les‐Roses to Le Treport (Upper Normandy), the relationships between coastal chalk cliff rock falls (dates and geomorphological features) and external factors commonly agreed as triggering (rainfall, temperature variations, tide and wind) are studied. The combination of multivariate statistical and empirical analyses indicates that (1) ‘cold and dry weather’ and ‘high rainfall and high wind’ are the conditions most likely to trigger rock falls, (2) the main triggering factors of rock falls are effective rainfall (for rock falls mostly between 200 and 1400 m³ or larger than 10 000 m³ and coming from the whole cliff face), freeze/thaw cycles (especially for rock falls smaller than 200 m³ and coming from the foot and top of the cliff face) and marine roughness (rock falls mainly smaller than 200 m³ and coming from the cliff foot). However, the contribution of each factor to triggering is difficult to determine because of combinations of factors (85% of 331 cases), relays of processes and hysteresis phenomena. In view of these first results, it is still presumptuous to predict the location and time of triggering of rock falls. However, the statistical and naturalistic approaches adopted and the observations made in this study are from an original database, and constitute a real starting point for the prediction and prevention of the hazard of coastal chalk cliff rock falls in Upper Normandy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

面向GTP的三维地质模型空间剖切方法与应用

广义三棱柱（GTP）是近年来提出并被广泛应用于三维地质建模领域的一种较为成熟的空间数据模型,可满足大多数地质钻孔数据的三维地质建模的要求。然而,现有针对GTP模型的三维空间剖切分析方法,仍无法适用于偏斜钻孔数据所建三维地质模型高效多次任意剖切、不能支持较为复杂的地质模型空间分析的问题。本文通过对GTP剖切算法改进研究,提出了采用动态四面体剖分法减小数据冗余;鉴于GTP形态较为复杂,可对剖切后保留多面体进行拓扑关系的重组,解决任意多次剖切问题;将多次“面-体”形式的单剖切运算组合为一次“体-体”形式的复合剖切运算的方法,可高效实现对三维地质模型空间分析。本文着重面向GTP体元的多重任意切剖平面的剖切问题,在分析了GTP体元特征的基础上,弥补了三维地质建模领域中对GTP体元任意、多重剖切方法研究的不足。应用实例表明,上述改进算法可以提高GTP剖切计算速度,并能够快速实现巷道掘进模拟,以及空间开挖模拟等复杂的空间分析功能。     

基于SWAT模型的乌鲁木齐河流域径流模拟

为了更好地研究西北干旱区高山河流对气候变化的响应,在新疆乌鲁木齐河上游汇水区构建SWAT分布式水文模型,结合Sufi-2算法对模型进行参数率定、敏感性分析以及不确定性分析,对乌鲁木齐河英雄桥水文站以上2000-2011年日径流进行模拟。结果表明:(1)河岸调蓄的基流α因子、土壤饱和导水率、地下水的时间延迟、气温降水垂直变率以及相关融雪参数比较敏感。(2)模型模拟结果与观测流量过程线拟合程度较好,日值模拟结果Ens>0.75,PBIAS介于±25%,R²达到0.8以上。(3)较高的P-factor及较低的R-factor显示模型不确定性较小。总体来说,SWAT模型在乌鲁木齐河上游区的适用性比较理想。     

Simulation of snow processes beneath a boreal scots pine canopy

A physically-based multi-layer snow model Snow-Atmosphere-Soil-Transfer scheme(SAST)and a land surface model Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme(BATS)were employed to investigate how boreal forests influence snow accumulation and ablation under the canopy.Mass balance and energetics of snow beneath a Scots pine canopy in Finland at different stages of the 2003-2004 and 2004 2005 snow seasons are analyzed.For the fairly dense Scots pine forest,drop-off of the canopy-intercepted snow contributes,in some cases,twice as much to the underlying snowpack as the direct throughfall of snow.During early winter snow melting,downward turbulent sensible and condensation heat fluxes play a dominant role together with downward net longwave radiation.In the final stage of snow ablation in middle spring,downward net all- wave radiation dominates the snow melting.Although the downward sensible heat flux is comparable to the net solar radiation during this period,evaporative cooling of the melting snow surface makes the turbulent heat flux weaker than net radiation.Sensitivities of snow processes to leaf area index(LAI)indicate that a denser canopy speeds up early winter snowmelt,but also suppresses melting later in the snow season. Higher LAI increases the interception of snowfall,therefore reduces snow accumulation under the canopy during the snow season;this effect and the enhancement of downward longwave radiation by denser foliage outweighs the increased attenuation of solar radiation,resulting in earlier snow ablation under a denser canopy.The difference in sensitivities to LAI in two snow seasons implies that the impact of canopy density on the underlying snowpack is modulated by interannual variations of climate regimes.     

绿洲效应的模拟及内外因子的敏感性实验

利用一个已发展的陆面物理过程参数化方案与大气边界层数值模式耦合,模拟了半干旱区绿洲戈壁非均匀下垫面的陆面物理过程及其与大气边界层的相互作用,成功地描绘了绿洲戈壁局地气候效应,并进行了绿洲戈壁局地气候效应对于降水、绿洲水平尺度和植被结构等若干内外因子的敏感性实验.结果表明:绿洲的最小临界尺度为5～10 km之间,最大临界尺度为55～65 km之间,而最利于绿洲维持的尺度范围为20 km左右,这一结论与我国西部地区现存的绿洲尺度统计结果十分一致;绿洲植被覆盖率为0.6左右时,最利于绿洲发展.另外对植被空间分布方式和绿洲植被组成比例上也进行了数值实验,并对影响绿洲生存和持续发展的内、外因子气候效应的影响力量级进行了分级.这些结果对于深入了解绿洲气候的形成和维持机理具有重要的意义.     

光纤光栅传感器用于高精度应变测量研究

利用光纤光栅对温度和应力应变的敏感效应制成的传感器可以将温度、压力、应力、应变等物理量转换成光学量（波长）,由此所构成的测量系统具有极高的稳定性,不存在零点漂移,抗干扰能力强等一系列优点.不足的是光纤光栅传感器本身灵敏度不够高,在许多场合其测量分辨率不能满足要求,特别是作为地震前兆观测的主要测量手段——应力应变测量精度要求较高.本文提出一种技术思路,即通过增敏装置来提高系统测量分辨率,理论上可以将应力应变的测量分辨率提高到10-9至10-10量级,可以满足高精度应力应变测量的指标要求.     

Failure probability assessment and parameter sensitivity analysis of a contaminant’s transit time through a compacted clay liner

This paper presents failure probability assessment and parameter sensitivity analysis of a contaminant’s transit time through a compacted clay liner. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was used to assess failure probability, and the failure samples generated in the MCS were used to investigate the sensitivity of various uncertain parameters to the failure probability. To facilitate the MCS, a database on various transport parameters was developed by collecting and analyzing measurement data reported in literature. Failure probability assessment and parameter sensitivity analysis showed that the uncertainties in adsorption parameters, longitudinal dispersivity, and hydraulic conductivity have the most significant effects on failure probability.     

基于位移的高桩码头抗震设计动力放大系数计算公式

为更加合理地计算基于位移的高桩码头抗震设计动力放大系数,采用40组地震动记录研究了双向水平地震作用下的码头动力放大系数。研究表明,码头的偏心距和分段长度以及地震波的入射角度对动力放大系数影响较大,地震动强度和近断层效应的影响可近似予以忽略。基于对动力放大系数计算结果的统计分析,提出了相应的计算公式,并确定了动力放大系数的变异系数和概率分布。     

钢框架结构的地震损伤研究

基于预定损伤法对钢框架构件主要设计参数进行损伤敏感度分析,研究主要设计参数与钢框架结构梁、柱损伤的关系;揭示钢框架结构梁、柱的损伤及梁、柱线刚度比、结构高宽比、柱轴压比、锈蚀率对楼层损伤的影响规律;获得楼层的损伤与整体结构损伤的关系,最终建立钢框架结构的损伤演化模型。研究成果可为建立地震激励下钢框架结构的损伤模型提供理论基础和数据支持。     

Multiple approaches to date Japanese marker tephras using optical and ESR methods

The present study aimed to test reliability of luminescence and electron spin resonance (ESR) methods to date tephra. We investigated on three Japanese marker tephras, Ikeda-ko (6.4 ka), Aira-Tn (30 ka) and Aira-Iwato (45–50 ka). A systematic studies were performed using different minerals (quartz and feldspar), different grain fractions (75–250 and 250–500 μm), different luminescence and ESR signals, like optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) of quartz, infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) of feldspar, including recently developed least faded post infrared IRSL (pIR-IRSL), and ESR signals from paramagnetic centers Al and Ti–Li of quartz. Ages obtained using pIR-IRSL signal of plagioclase with preheat of 320 °C, 60 s and stimulation at 300 °C are consistent with the reference ages. High dose detection range (up to ∼600 Gy) and accurate age estimation enable pIR-IRSL of feldspar a promising methodology to date quaternary tephra. ESR ages from quartz are grossly correlated with the reference ages but large deviation and large associated errors are observed, possibly due to either low signal to noise ratio or heterogenous dose response of different aliquot in multiple aliquot additive dose (MAAD) approach.