库车坳陷复杂高陡构造地震成像研究

复杂构造地震成像主要取决于叠前地震数据品质、偏移速度可靠性和偏移算子成像精度. 库车坳陷异常复杂的近地表条件导致极低信噪比的地震采集数据. 该区逆冲推覆高陡构造刺穿盐体大面积分布, 盐层厚度变化大、顶底面形态复杂, 盐下断裂带破碎、小断块发育, 形成异常复杂的地震成像问题. 本文重点研究三个关键环节:(1)精细的叠前地震预处理研究: 根据该区地震地质复杂性和地震资料特征, 采用一些新的方法技术和技术组合从振幅与时移的大、中、小尺度变化三个层次来解决资料信噪比问题, 重建深部反射信号; (2)三级偏移速度分析研究:利用库车坳陷盐刺穿逆冲推覆构造建模理论及变速成图配套技术解决叠前时间偏移速度场时深转换问题,利用井约束低频速度地震迭代反演技术解决连井层速度场与偏移速度场的融合问题,实现从DMO速度分析、叠前时间偏移速度分析到叠前深度偏移速度分析的有机衔接,建立拓扑结构相对保持的叠前深度偏移速度模型;(3)基于退化Fourier偏移算子的半解析波动方程叠前时间和深度偏移研究, 极大地改善了地震偏移过程中高波数波的成像问题. 通过对库车坳陷大北、博孜、却勒、西秋4和西秋10等复杂高陡构造的叠前时间和深度偏移地震成像处理,取得了较好的应用效果.     

Assessment of surface water resources and evapotranspiration in the Haihe River basin of China using SWAT model

Quantitative assessment of surface water resources (SWRs) and evapotranspiration (ET) is essential and significant for reasonably planning and managing water resources in the Haihe River basin which is facing severe water shortage. In this study, a distributed hydrological model of the Haihe River basin was constructed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, well considering the reservoirs and agricultural management practices for reasonable simulation. The crop parameters were independently calibrated with the observed crop data at six experimental stations. Then, sensitivity ranks of hydrological parameters were analysed, which suggested the important parameters used for calibration. The model was successfully calibrated using the monthly observed data of discharge in around 1970–1991 and actual ET (ET_a) in 2002–2004 for the mountainous area and Haihe plain, respectively. Meanwhile, good agreements between the simulated and statistical crop yields in 1985–2005 further verified the model's appropriateness. Finally, the calibrated model was used to assess SWRs and ET_a in time and space during 1961–2005. Results showed that the average annual natural SWRs and the ET_a were about 17.5 billion cubic metre and 542 mm, respectively, both with a slight downward trend. The spatial distributions of both SWRs and ET_a were significantly impacted by variations of precipitation and land use. Moreover, the reservoir in operation was the main factor for the noticeable decline of actual SWRs. In the Haihe plain, the ET_a with irrigation was increased by 46% compared with that under rainfed conditions. In addition, this study identified the regions with potential to improve the irrigation effects on water use. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中高山地区滑坡发育地形地貌因子敏感性研究

为分析海拔高度大于1 300m的中高山地区地形地貌因子对滑坡发育的敏感性程度,运用基于因子综合贡献率的敏感性分析方法,研究黔东北中高山地区坡面形态、地形坡度、相对高差三类影响因子对滑坡发育的影响程度.在各类影响因子对滑坡发育频数、面积及体积分量贡献率的基础上,利用顺序赋值法量化各分量贡献率的贡献指数,并以各分量贡献指数的几何平均数构建敏感性系数,定量分析三类地形地貌影响因子对中高山地区滑坡发育的敏感性.研究结果表明,阶梯形和凸形坡面形态的斜坡中后部为地貌演化堆积区,能提供较大重力势能,属滑坡发育的敏感性坡面形态因子;地形坡度在18°～22°之间的较陡坡和相对高差在40～80m之间的矮坡常分布于受地表水强烈冲刷的地带,在一定重力势能和强烈地下水共同作用下,极易诱发浅层小规模滑坡;地形坡度大于27°的极陡坡和相对高差大于120m的高坡由于具备较大重力势能,常诱发深层大规模滑坡.     

Application of a rainfall-runoff model to three catchments in Iraq

Abstract

The capability of the Surface inFiltration Baseflow (SFB) conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulate streamflow for three catchments selected from northern Iraq is investigated. These catchments differ in their climatic regimes and physical characteristics. Three versions of the model were tested: the original three-parameter model (SFB), the modified five-parameter model (SFB-5), and the modified six-parameter model (SFB-6). The available daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff data were used in conjunction with a simulated annealing (SA) optimization technique to calibrate the various versions of the SFB model. A simple sensitivity analysis was then carried out to determine the relative importance of the model parameters. The study indicated that use of the original three parameter model was not adequate to simulate monthly streamflow in the selected catchments. The modified version (SFB-5) provided better runoff simulation than the original SFB model; overall a 19% increase was observed in the coefficient of determination (R²) between simulated and observed monthly runoff. The SFB-5 model performed with varying degrees of success among the catchments. The model performance in the validation stage was reasonable and comparable to that of the calibration stage. The sensitivity analysis of the SFB model for arid catchments revealed that the baseflow parameter (B) was the most sensitive one, while the S and F parameters were less sensitive than the B parameter.     

Quantifying the impact of urban area expansion on groundwater recharge and surface runoff

ABSTRACT

In this surface water modelling study, a new spatial evaluation for assessing the impact of urbanization was applied for the semi-arid watersheds intersecting with the Gaza coastal aquifer. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated in a semi-automated approach for streamflow in the main watersheds. The results show that the model could simulate water budget components adequately within the complex semi-arid watersheds. Linear relationships between the change in urban area and the corresponding change in surface runoff or percolation were concluded for the urbanized sub-basins. The urban-surface runoff index (USI) and the urban-percolation index (UPI) were developed to represent a micro-level evaluation of different urban change scenarios in the sub-basins. The global urban-surface runoff index (GUSI) and the global urban-percolation index (GUPI) were derived as macro-level factors reflecting the influence on the overall Gaza coastal aquifer due to urban area expansion.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor E. Rozos     

Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia

Abstract

Estimates of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in 219 catchments across Australia are presented. The rainfall elasticity of streamflow is defined here as the proportional change in mean annual streamflow divided by the proportional change in mean annual rainfall. The elasticity is therefore a simple estimate of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to changes in long-term rainfall, and is particularly useful as an initial estimate of climate change impact in land and water resources projects. The rainfall elasticity of streamflow is estimated here using a hydrological modelling approach and a nonparametric estimator. The results indicate that the rainfall elasticity of streamflow (? _P ) in Australia is about 2.0–3.5 (observed in about 70% of the catchments), that is, a 1% change in mean annual rainfall results in a 2.0–3.5% change in mean annual streamflow. The rainfall elasticity of streamflow is strongly correlated to runoff coefficient and mean annual rainfall and streamflow, where streamflow is more sensitive to rainfall in drier catchments, and those with low runoff coefficients. There is a clear relation-ship between the ? _P values estimated using the hydrological modelling approach and those estimated using the nonparametric estimator for the 219 catchments, although the values estimated by the hydrological modelling approach are, on average, slightly higher. The modelling approach is useful where a detailed study is required and where there are sufficient data to reliably develop and calibrate a hydrological model. The nonparametric estimator is useful where consistent estimates of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to climate are required, because it is simple to use and estimates the elasticity directly from the historical data. The nonparametric method, being model independent, can also be easily applied in comparative studies to data sets from many catchments across large regions.     

弱GPS信号捕获算法及其仿真研究

为满足低信噪比环境下的导航需要,介绍了一种基于改进循环相关的GPS基带信号捕获算法。本文借助于GPS信号基带数学模型以及FFT技术,从理论层面上对捕获算法的信号处理流程以及捕获性能进行了分析;并利用真实GPS基带数据对算法在低信噪比环境下的检测概率和捕获能力进行了重点仿真,仿真结果显示算法在低信噪比环境下是有效的,能够提高低信噪比环境下的检测概率和提高GPS接收机的检测灵敏度。     

贵州矿产资源开发利用现状分析

本文以科学发展观为指导,分析了贵州矿山企业的规模结构、开发布局、矿山的矿种结构、资源综合利用情况和经济类型,以及矿山的地域分布的现状等,指出了存在的主要问题,对今后全省矿业持续健康发展提出了有益的建议。     

速度传感反馈地震计的参数稳定性分析

从理论上定量分析机械摆和环路滤波等开环诸参数变化对速度传感反馈地震计闭环参数的影响.研究指出,在环路设计中可半自由选取的开环阻尼取值对参数稳定性有重要影响.过大或过小的开环阻尼取值均可能造成参数稳定性急剧变差,影响地震计在只标不调的状况下长期连续稳定工作.     

A simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures

A versatile, simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures is discussed in this work. A probabilistic foundation is used to address the various sources of uncertainties, either excitation or structural, and to characterize seismic risk. This risk is given, in this stochastic setting, by some statistics of the system response over the adopted probability models and stochastic simulation is implemented for its evaluation. An efficient, sampling‐based approach is also introduced for establishing a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to identify the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters in affecting the overall risk. This framework facilitates use of complex models for the structural system and the excitation. The adopted structural model explicitly addresses nonlinear characteristics of the isolators and of any supplemental dampers, and the effect of seismic pounding of the base to the surrounding retaining walls. An efficient stochastic ground motion model is also discussed for characterizing future near‐fault ground motions and relating them to the seismic hazard for the structural site. An illustrative example is presented that emphasizes the results from the novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis and their dependence on seismic pounding occurrences and on addition of supplemental dampers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.