2℃温升目标下中国排放配额分析

本文以国际社会当前所有主要分配方案为基础,研究了2℃温升目标下中国2011-2050年间排放配额,通过控制变量进一步分析了配额分配对于主要参数设置的敏感性。研究结果表明,在与2℃目标相兼容的RCP2.6路径下,到2050年中国CO₂累计排放配额范围为150～440 Gt CO₂,基于等人均排放的分配方式已经变得最不利于中国。为维护合理的排放权益,在气候谈判中中国必须坚持对历史排放的完整追溯。全球排放路径的设定对中国配额也有着非常显著的影响,当2050年全球配额比2010年排放减少40%～50%时,中国在2℃目标下CO₂累计配额范围为151～474 Gt CO₂,当减少50%～60%时为138～478 Gt CO₂,构成中国配额公平范围下限的方案受排放路径的影响更大。     

three-dimensional sensitivity coefficients of apparent resistivity and preliminary application

We calculate three-dimensional sensitivity coefficients distribution of apparent resistivity observation when Schlumberger array is used by using finite element method. Analysis results suggest that for the situation of one-dimensional positive or minus coefficient of surface medium, three-dimensional sensitivity coefficients distribution at surface shows similar patterns, and sensitivity coefficients distributions of different layered electric structures are also similar. There are two approximate ellipses at the two-dimensional surface plane between current electrodes and potential electrodes, where sensitivity coefficients are minus, and sensitivity coefficients at other areas are positive. Sensitivity coefficients at two approximate ellipses between current electrodes and potential electrodes are minus at the vertical section along monitoring line, while others are positive. From the three-dimensional view, minus sensitivity coefficients are at the two approximate half ellipsoids between current electrodes and potential electrodes when arrays are applied at surface. And coefficients near the electrodes are much greater than other areas. When resistivity of local areas at surface changes, we can qualitatively analyze the disturbing effects caused by the areas using three dimensional sensitivity coefficients distribution, and the analysis result can serve as reference for further experiment and numerical model quantitative analysis.     

Evaluation of geochemical behavior and heavy metal distribution of sediments：The case study of the Tirumalairajan river estuary,southeast coast of India

The purpose of this study was to assess the chemical partitioning of selected heavy metals(Fe,Mn,Cu,Zn,Pb,Cr,Co and Ni) in 10 surface sediments at Tirumalairajan River Estuary in the southeastern coast of India.A five-step sequential extraction technique was used to assess the environmental status of heavy metals.Most of metals were considered to be immobile due to the high availability in the residual fraction of heavy metals.The sediments of Tirumalairajan River estuary had not been polluted by heavy metals,and they didn’t pose any high ecological risk.The seasonal variations of heavy metals were slightly higher in summer than in monsoon season.Factor analysis was also carned out to understand the associations of metals in different fractions with sand,silt,clay,organic matter,pH,salinity and other metals.The relationship between the Q-mode and R-mode cluster analyses was useful for identifying the pollution levels in both seasons.It was proved that the enrichment of heavy metals was related with geogenic and anthropogenic sources.The information on total metal concentrations in sediments was not sufficient for assessing the metal behavior in the environment,but the sequential extraction technique was more effective in estimating the environmental impact of contaminated sediments.     

Time stability of spring and superconducting gravimeters through the analysis of very long gravity records

Long gravity records are of great interest when performing tidal analyses. Indeed, long series enable to separate contributions of near-frequency waves and also to detect low frequency signals (e.g. long period tides and polar motion). In addition to the length of the series, the quality of the data and the temporal stability of the noise are also very important. We study in detail some of the longest gravity records available in Europe: 3 data sets recorded with spring gravimeters in Black Forest Observatory (Germany, 1980–2012), Walferdange (Luxemburg, 1980–1995) and Potsdam (Germany, 1974–1998) and several superconducting gravimeters (SGs) data sets, with at least 9 years of continuous records, at different European GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) sites (Bad Homburg, Brussels, Medicina, Membach, Moxa, Vienna, Wettzell and Strasbourg). The stability of each instrument is investigated using the temporal variations of tidal parameters (amplitude factor and phase difference) for the main tidal waves (O1, K1, M2 and S2) as well as the M2/O1 factor ratio, the later being insensitive to the instrumental calibration. The long term stability of the tidal observations is also dependent on the stability of the scale factor of the relative gravimeters. Therefore we also check the time stability of the scale factor for the superconducting gravimeter C026 installed at the J9 Gravimetric Observatory of Strasbourg (France), using numerous calibration experiments carried out by co-located absolute gravimeter (AG) measurements during the last 15 years. The reproducibility of the scale factor and the achievable precision are investigated by comparing the results of different calibration campaigns. Finally we present a spectrum of the 25 years of SG records at J9 Observatory, with special attention to small amplitude tides in the semi-diurnal and diurnal bands, as well as to the low frequency part.     

复杂岩性储层渗透率-应力敏感性及其对气井产能的影响

采用变流压定围压试验方式,在高温、高压条件下模拟了气藏开发过程,研究了复杂火山岩气藏储层渗透率应力敏感性,对比了变流压定围压与常规的定流压变围压方式评价储层应力敏感性的异同。试验结果表明,火山岩储层渗透率随着孔隙压力的减小而减小,渗透率减小主要发生在孔隙压力从40 MPa下降至25 MPa的变化区间,渗透率损失率与其初始渗透率之间的相关性较差,这与常规沉积砂岩储层具有一定的差别。变流压定围压试验评价的应力敏感性强于定流压变围压评价结果,气藏储层有效应力变化范围内两种试验评价的应力敏感性结果差异更大。基于渗流力学理论,推导得到考虑应力敏感性的气井产能方程。计算结果表明,考虑应力敏感性时气井无阻流量约为不考虑应力敏感性时的63.28%,应力敏感性对气井产能的影响随着生产压差的增大而增大。     

基于RTTOV模式的大气二氧化碳反演参数敏感性分析

大气二氧化碳是开展全球气候变化和碳循环研究的关键数据。卫星遥感技术与模式模拟相结合的反演方法已成为获取该数据的重要手段,但模式输入参数本身的误差会对大气二氧化碳反演精度产生影响,须在反演算法设计中加以关注。本文利用RTTOV10快速辐射传输模式模拟Aqua/AIRS红外探测仪17个大气二氧化碳反演通道,计算了这些通道上大气顶出射辐射对温度廓线、臭氧廓线、水汽廓线、地表温度和地表发射率的参数误差的不确定性,并与二氧化碳增加0.5%时造成的不确定性进行对比,分析二氧化碳对上述参数误差的敏感性。结果表明,温度廓线误差是干扰AIRS大气二氧化碳反演的主要因素,其次是臭氧廓线误差,而水汽廓线、地表温度和地表发射率的误差对二氧化碳反演的影响在除去个别通道后可忽略不计。最后,本文以通道为单位,确定了各通道上的高敏感参数、敏感参数和不敏感参数,为二氧化碳反演通道的选择和反演算法的设计提供了参考。     

基于USLE和GIS的水土流失敏感性空间分析——以河北太行山区为例

以USLE方程为理论指导,遥感影像为主要数据源,基于ArcGIS 进行水土流失敏感性空间分析。选择降雨侵蚀力、土地利用类型、坡度、植被覆盖度等影响因子构建水土流失敏感性评价指标体系,在考虑不同因子影响作用大小的情况下,运用空间分析的方法按标准将水土流失敏感性分为五级;并以河北太行山区为例进行研究,利用危险性指数表征研究区水土流失敏感性大小,分析研究区在不同地理背景下的水土流失敏感区的空间分布特征。研究表明：河北太行山区的水土流失敏感性危险性指数为3.97;空间上水土流失敏感性分等级呈现明显的条带状分布;中度敏感区所占面积比例最大,为39.2%;整体水土流失敏感性中度偏重。     

钢桁梁桥基于模型修正方法的损伤程度识别研究

在钢桁梁桥模型损伤定位的基础上,采用模型修正方法对其损伤程度进行识别,对其中几个关键问题进行了研究分析,得出了一些有用的结论,可作为实际桥梁健康监测的参考依据。     

华池油田华152区低渗透砂岩储层敏感性及其形成机理

华池油田华152区长3油层组储层为曲流河三角洲粉-细粒长石砂岩、岩屑长石砂岩,矿物成分成熟度低,结构成熟度中等,填隙物含量较高,孔隙结构以中孔细喉型为主,物性较差,属低渗透储层。主要成岩矿物（伊利石、绿泥石、伊／蒙混层、高岭石、方解石、白云石等）使储层对外来流体有不同程度的敏感性反应。“五敏”实验结果表明,储层速敏和碱敏均为弱-中等偏弱,部分伊/蒙混层、绿泥石、碳酸盐矿物含量高的样品表现出强水敏、强酸敏、强盐敏的特征;油田水结垢实验表明,注入水与地层水、储层岩石不配伍产生盐垢CaCO3,CaSO4,实验为开采过程中回注地层水和注气开采等工艺提供油层保护的理论依据。     

典型滑坡监测点优化布置

利用数值模拟技术与模糊模式识别算法提出了滑坡监测点优化布置的基本方法。以链子崖危岩体为例,以Ⅳ-Ⅳ′剖面作为滑坡监测点优化布置的典型剖面,根据监测变量（位移）对外界干扰因素作用下的灵敏度大小与监测信息量获取大小之间的关系,对该危岩体的监测变量（位移）进行了灵敏度分区研究,进而对该典型剖面的监测点进行了优化设计。研究结果表明,链子崖危岩体地表位移监测点宜布置在位移量明显和状态变化灵敏度较高的部位,深部位移监测钻孔宜穿越所有水平位移变化的灵敏区域。