Climate-change driven increased flood magnitudes and frequency in the British uplands: Geomorphologically informed scientific underpinning for upland flood-risk management

Upland river systems in the UK are predicted to be prone to the effects of increased flood magnitudes and frequency, driven by climate change. It is clear from recent events that some headwater catchments can be very sensitive to large floods, activating the full sediment system, with implications for flood risk management further down the catchment. We provide a 15-year record of detailed morphological change on a 500-m reach of upland gravel-bed river, focusing upon the geomorphic response to an extreme event in 2007, and the recovery in the decade following. Through novel application of two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic modelling we evaluate the different energy states of pre- and post-flood morphologies of the river reach, exploring how energy state adjusts with recovery following the event. Following the 2007 flood, morphological adjustments resulted in changes to the shear stress population over the reach, resulting in higher shear stresses. Although the proportion of shear stresses in excess of those experienced using the pre-flood digital elevation model (DEM) varied over the recovery period, they remained substantially in excess of those experienced pre-2007, suggesting that there is still potential for enhanced bedload transport and morphological adjustment within the reach. Although volumetric change calculated from DEM differencing does indicate a reduction in erosion and deposition volumes in the decade following the flood, we argue that the system still has not fully recovered to the pre-flood state. We further argue that Thinhope Burn, and other similarly impacted catchments in upland environments, may not recover under the wet climatic phase currently being experienced. Hence systems like Thinhope Burn will continue to deliver large volumes of sediment further down river catchments, providing new challenges for flood risk management into the future.     

井水位对地壳应力-应变响应灵敏度的研究

从丰镇井水位的潮汐效应、地表水体荷载效应与列车荷载效应分别计算出井水位对各类应力 应变的响应灵敏度,其结果分别是6.6×10-9体应变/mm、9.6×10-7体应变/mm与1.0×10-2体应变/mm;在此基础上,推算出该井水位在张北地震前60mm的缓升型异常相应的含水层应变与应力前兆的量级为5.76×10-5体应变与2.3kPa。     

Analyses of the Compositional Characteristics and Sources of the Organochlorine Pesticides in the Surface Sediments of Guanghai Bay,Taishan City,Guangdong Province

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) are a class of toxic and harmful persistent organic pollutants widely found in environment. Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCHs) and DDTs are two of the most widely used OCPs (Qiu et al., 2004), so it is important to find out their compositional characteristics and sources in surface sediments. Guanghai Bay is located in the south of Guanghai Bay Industrial Park in Taishan City, Guangdong Province. It borders Huangmaohai to the east and Zhenhai Bay to the west, covering an area of about 236 square kilometers. In this study, surface sediments were collected at 16 sites in Guanghai Bay (Fig. 1). After the surface sediments were pretreated, GC‐MS was used to analyze OCPs. A total of 14 OCPs were detected and their content was shown in Table 1. The concentration of ΣOCPs ranged between 0.507～0.860ng·g‐1, with an average of 0.680 ng?g‐1. In general, the content of ΣOCPs was the highest at No. A12 site. The concentrations of these 14 detected OCPs ordered as dieldrin > epoxy heptachlor > P, P'‐DDD > γ‐HCH >endrin >aldrin > P, P'‐DDE >mirex >hexachlorobenzene >P, P'‐DDT > α‐HCH > δ‐HCH >β‐HCH > heptachlor.     

基于可靠度理论的尾矿坝失稳概率及敏感性分析

为了能够真实反映砭家沟尾矿库的稳定特性,运用Monte Carlo试验原理,考虑库区砂层的空间变异特性,利用Slope/W软件对尾矿库进行了概率分析与敏感性分析。分析表明,抽样方式的不同,使尾矿坝体失稳概率和可靠性指标发生了大幅波动,但是并没有使安全系数产生明显变化,也验证了仅将安全系数作为衡量尾矿坝体稳定性的唯一标准是不合适的;敏感性分析也表明了砂层主要参数对安全系数影响的敏感程度,同时也表明黏聚力是影响库区稳定的主要砂层因素。通过研究,为尾矿库今后的运行与管理提供了理论依据,具有一定的指导意义。     

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.     

Quantifying groundwater sensitivity and resilience over peninsular India

Groundwater in India plays an important role to support livelihoods and maintain ecosystems and the present rate of depletion of groundwater resources poses a serious threat to water security. Yet, the sensitivity of the hydrological processes governing groundwater recharge to climate variability remains unclear in the region. Here we assess the groundwater sensitivity (precipitation–recharge relationship) and its potential resilience towards climatic variability over peninsular India using a conceptual water balance model and a convex model, respectively in 54 catchments over peninsular India. Based on the model performance using a comprehensive approach (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency [NSE], bias and variability), 24 out of 54 catchments are selected for assessment of groundwater sensitivity and its resilience. Further, a systematic approach is used to understand the changes in resilience on a temporal scale based upon the convex model and principle of critical slowing down theory. The results of the study indicate that the catchments with higher mean groundwater sensitivity (GWS) encompass high variability in GWS over the period (1988–2011), thus indicating the associated vulnerability towards hydroclimatic disturbances. Moreover, it was found that the catchments pertaining to a lower magnitude of mean resilience index incorporates a high variability in resilience index over the period (1993–2007), clearly illustrating the inherent vulnerability of these catchments. The resilience of groundwater towards climatic variability and hydroclimatic disturbances that is revealed by groundwater sensitivity is essential to understand the future impacts of changing climate on groundwater and can further facilitate effective adaptation strategies.     

Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model

This paper provides the results of hydrological modelling in a mesoscale glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalayan region. In the context of global climate change, the hydrological regime of an alpine mountain is likely to be affected, which might produce serious implications for downstream water availability. The main objective of this study was to understand the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated catchment, the Dudh Kosi River basin, in Nepal, using the J2000 hydrological model and thereby understand how the rise in air temperature will affect the hydrological processes. The model is able to reproduce the overall hydrological dynamics quite well with an efficiency result of Nash–Sutcliffe (0.85), logarithm Nash–Sutcliffe (0.93) and coefficient of determination (0.85) for the study period. The average contribution from glacier areas to total streamflow is estimated to be 17%, and snowmelt (other than from glacier areas) accounts for another 17%. This indicates the significance of the snow and glacier runoff in the Himalayan region. The hypothetical rise in temperature scenarios at a rate of +2 and +4 °C indicated that the snowmelt process might be largely affected. An increase in snowmelt volume is noted during the premonsoon period, whereas the contribution during the monsoon season is significantly decreased. This occurs mainly because the rise in temperature will shift the snowline up to areas of higher altitude and thereby reduce the snow storage capacity of the basin. This indicates that the region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change and the associated risk of decreasing water availability to downstream areas. Under the assumed warming scenarios, it is likely that in the future, the river might shift from a ‘melt‐dominated river’ to a ‘rain‐dominated river’. The J2000 model should be considered a promising tool to better understand the hydrological dynamics in alpine mountain catchments of the Himalayan region. This understanding will be quite useful for further analysis of ‘what‐if scenarios’ in the context of global climate and land‐use changes and ultimately for sustainable Integrated Water Resources Management in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于因子分析和聚类分析的公众雾霾敏感度差异研究 ——以西安市为例

为研究公众的雾霾敏感度,以西安市13个区为案例地,运用因子分析法对公众的敏感度进行降维,引入潜在冲突指数(PCI)分析公众雾霾敏感度各维度的内部差异,并对公众进行分类。结果表明:(1)公众的雾霾敏感度可分为5个维度,分别是防护行为、降霾行为、雾霾关注度、生活影响感知和健康影响感知;(2)公众在防护行为、降霾行为、生活影响感知和健康影响感知方面意见一致,且敏感度较高;在雾霾关注度方面,公众之间的分歧较大,雾霾关注度小的公众敏感度较低;(3)基于以上5个维度,将公众分为防护敏感群体、关注度敏感群体、健康敏感群体和环保敏感群体。     

Effects of Dropsonde Data in Field Campaigns on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific in 2020 and the Role of CNOP Sensitivity

Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones, namely Higos,Nangka, Saudel, and Atsani, over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau in 2020. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method has been utilized in real-time to identify the sensitive regions for targeting observations adhering to the procedure of real-time field campaigns for the first time. The observing system experiments...     

一次双台风影响下暴雨过程的中尺度涡旋模拟分析

本文对上海地区一次双台风环境影响的暴雨过程进行数值模拟及分析,探讨了强降水过程中大气中低层的涡旋特征及发展机理。结果表明:(1)暴雨过程处于双台风、大陆高压的共同影响下,中低层伴随有较明显的中尺度低涡发展。(2)与涡旋相关的局地垂直涡度由低层开始发展,先期涡度发展集中于850 hPa以下,之后向大气中上层发展增强,涡旋尺度强度也随之发展,最终形成在对流层下半部具有闭合式气旋性环流的深厚涡旋。(3)影响局地涡度变化的水平平流项、垂直平流项、散度制造项和倾斜项对不同时间、不同高度的涡度作用各不相同,其中散度制造项是中低层涡度的主要来源,垂直平流项的输送作用对中上层的涡度发展有重要作用,倾斜项对涡旋发展移动也有部分贡献。(4)通过敏感性试验考察了对流潜热反馈的贡献,发现潜热释放过程通过加热改变大气温压场结构,从而维持并改变局地涡度倾向的中低层辐合及对流上升运动,对涡旋的发展和移动起了重要影响。