Quantitative mapping of a precursory seismic quiescence to the Izu–Oshima 1990 (M6.5) earthquake, Japan

A highly significant seismic quiescence with a standard deviate Z = 10.1. corresponding to a 99 per cent confidence level, lasted from 1987.7 up to the 1990 February 20 Izu-Oshima M 6.5 earthquake. The quiescent volume had dimensions of 30 km N-S and 10 km E-W and was centred below 14 km depth. Within the recently upgraded seismograph network of the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), this main shock was the only one with a magnitude M > 5.8 in the upper 30 km of the crust for which the precursory quiescence hypothesis could be tested. Within a radius of 50 km, and during the observation period (1983.5–1995.9), there were no other 1.5 yr or longer periods of quiescence that were rated Z > 6.5 in the declustered earthquake catalogue, except one that was associated with volcanic activity. The total space-time covered by alarms, including the volcanic one, was less than 1 per cent at the Z = 6.5 level. The rarity of highly significant episodes of quiescence, and the correlation in space and time suggest that a precursory seismic quiescence started 2.5 yr before the Izu-Oshima 1990 earthquake in its source volume and to the north of it, and that it can be recognized with an alarm level of Z = 6.0, generating no false alarms. During the 1.5 yr quiescence window, only 10 earthquakes occurred in the quiet volume, whereas 50 events were expected based on the rate seen at other times. In randomly selected volumes containing 50, 100 and 200 events, the anomaly scored Z = 6.1 to 10.1. On the basis of the data from May 1983 to 1995, there is no highly significant quiescence currently present in the Izu-Oshima area.     

云南武定6.5级地震前的大形势及发震过程分析

１９９６年１０月２４日武定６．５级地震是滇东地区近１０年来的最大地震事件。本文首先论述了该地区的长期缺震现象及周边强震持续活跃对它的牵动影响；进而通过多种地球物理量的时空分析，发现震前１年震区地表荷载突然出现剧烈加载，震区地下介质亦变得很不稳定；最后，６．５级地震恰在有多个“天文奇点”会集的１０月２４日爆发，受调性质极为显著。     

四川省中西部地震重点监视防御区城乡震害预测

本文简要介绍了全国地震重点监视防御区之一的四川省中西部地区的社会经济、自然地理、地震地质、地震活动及未来地震危险性概况，给出了防御区内冕宁、宁南、普格、石棉、沪定、康定等六县城乡开展的房屋建筑，生命线工程（公路、供电、供水工程）震害预测，次生灾害分析预测、地震造成伤亡人数估计和直接经济损失预测等的预测方法和预测结果。由于四川过去尚未开展过这类工作，本文将上述成果汇总、整理发表，可供同行讨论和有关方面参考。     

1995年7—9月的全球地震动态

１９９５年第三季度，全球地震活动为显著的高水平，其活动强度与第二季度相近，智利北部近海和所罗门群岛先后发生Ｍｓ７．７以上大地震，时间仅相隔半月。墨西哥和缅甸中国边界附近分别发生７．２级地震。全球各大地震带呈现全面活跃的局面。亚欧带东段地震活动强于西段，未来亚欧带也有可能出现Ｍｓ７．７以上地震，以发生于西段较为可能。     

韩国的地震监测与研究概况

１９９６年１月２８日－２月６日中国地震代表团一行１３人次首次访问韩国并参加第一届中韩数字地震学研讨会。文章概要介绍了韩国的地震预测、地震目录研究、地震活动性研究、地震监测与研究计划。     

承德地区地震活动特征与未来地震危险性

本文以承德地区的历史地震与现今地震活动的时空变化为依据,分析了地震活动水平较低的承德地区地震特征,并根据场址影响烈度估计场址危险性的最大似然法,由承德地区历史地震的影响烈度,估计了未来50年内承德地区的地震危险性.     

黑龙江省农田土壤水分的时空分布规律

依据黑龙江省33个农业气象试验站近20年的土壤水分常数与土壤重量含水率农田实测资料，以土壤有效水量和土壤相对含水率为指标，初步分析了农田土壤水分的时空分布规律。     

The Murdjadjo, Western Algeria, fault-related fold: Implications for seismic hazard

The murdjadjo (Oran) geological structure which consists of an asymmetricfold has been studied. The anticline has a length of about 32 km and isN050 trending. Its relationship with the relatively high historical seismicityof the region is analysed. New critical investigations of contemporary documents enabled us to re-evaluate the December, 12, 1959(M_s = 4.7) and the May 12, 1889 (M_s = 4.6) earthquakes. Fieldobservations reveal the existence of a fault which affect the south-easternflank of the Murdjadjo anticline. The fault dips 60^° to the NW andcut the tilted Neogene deposits which juxtaposes the Quaternary tilteddeposits. A NE-SW-trending direction of stream pattern underlies thefaulted flank of the anticline. Furthermore, offset of stream patternindicate a strike lateral slip component of the fault. Marine terracesmapped along the Oran coast indicates a uniform uplift rate of0.18 mm/yr which may be compared to the coseismic rate obtained inthe chelif region. Also, development of secondary small plain on theuplifted flank, the high subsidence in the Mleta quaternary plain whichjuxtaposes the faulted flank constitute evidence of recent tectonicmovements. The Murdjadjo fault, composed by two segments, mayproduce in the future strong earthquakes of magnitude equal or greaterthan 6.5. This fact suggests that the Oran earthquake of October 9, 1790(M = 7.5) which produced sea waves along the Spanish coast is likelygenerated by the Murdjadjo fault- related fold. Recurrence of earthquakedetermined on the basis of historical seismicity suggests a return period ofabout 1000 years for an earthquake of M = 7.3 which seem underestimatedcompared to the paleoseismic data available in The Tell atlas of Algeria.     

The earthquake of 10 July 1894 in the Gulf of Izmit (Turkey) and its relation to the earthquake of 17 August 1999

The recent destructive earthquake(M_S 7.4) of 17 August 1999 in the Gulf of Izmitin north-west Turkey was not a surprise, neither forits location, large magnitude or for the damage itcaused. Other, equally large magnitude earthquakeshave occurred in the past in the region but we havechosen to present in this paper the earthquake of 10July 1894 because it is one of the two large events tostrike the Gulf of Izmit in the last 105 years, and inmany respects similar to the recent earthquake of 17August 1999 in size, location, and effects.