首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

密度和压缩系数的散射层析成像法

本文在速度成像的基础上研究了同时对密度和压缩系数成像的散射波层析成像法.对不同散射角度的计算可以得到一系列反演图像,拟合这些图像,从而可以有效地达到对密度和压缩系数（或速度）成像的目的.与单纯的速度成像相比,增加了反演的难度.首先是对资料的方位性要求增加;其次是对资料的利用率下降.即便如此,从对较少量的炮点和检波点资料的数值计算来看,仍取得了满意的成像结果.我们对组成字母“A”的散射体结构进行了成像计算,结果能够同时再现密度和压缩系数,成像清晰,表明了方法的可行性,并能应用于复杂结构的成像问题.     

青藏高原及邻近区域的S波三维速度结构

本文收集了WWSSN台网和我国台网中13个地震台站的长周期地震记录,用140条10-90s瑞利波频散曲线和作者提出的Tarantola-Backus面波频散层析成象方法,作了青藏高原及邻区的速度反演,得出该地区岩石层速度结构的三维图象.结果表明,1.在10-110km深度范围内,速度结构出现与大地构造特征相关的分区性,显示出四个构造单元:青藏块体、柴达木-巴颜喀拉-三江块体、塔里木块体和印度块体.2.高原内部,深度为10-70km内速度较低,莫霍界面呈不对称盆形分布,藏北那曲附近地壳厚度超过70km,高原边缘壳厚为45-50km,90-110km为高速异常,表明高原内部存在上地幔盖层.3.高原北部的班公湖断裂和东部的三江断裂系是该区重要的分界线,是岩石层结构存在明显差异的重要接触部位,可能是冈瓦纳古陆与欧亚古陆的缝合带.4.柴达木-巴颜喀拉-三江块体内部速度分布不均匀,地壳厚度由北向南从45km加深到60km;在深度90-110km存在一低速层.5.塔里木地块内速度随深度均匀增加,从地壳到上地幔110km内没有发现低速层.地壳厚度约50km.     

论裸眼井中的“共振纵波”和“共振横波”

一、引言 文献[1]和[2]指出,充流体裸眼井中存在频率确定、波速恒定、且沿传播方向不衰减的“共振纵波”和“共振横波”。本文的目的在于论证并指出,这两种波是不存在的。 二、论证 设一点源位于z=0的井轴上,则井轴上z处的声波频率响应为     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Structural elements of the Makran region, Oman sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenisis

The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain, the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System.     

斜向波对直立式防波堤堤头作用的试验研究

直立式防波堤堤头在斜向波浪作用下波浪力的计算在现行的技术规范中尚属空白。通过物理模型试验给出了堤头结构设计所需的波压分布图，指出了波浪入射方向和地形对堤头所受波浪力的贡献有时可以超过波高和波周期，根据现行规范按波浪正向入射计算堤头所受的波浪力偏于安全。     

Control strategies for the Clam Wave Energy Device

A promising wave energy device being currently investigated is the ‘clam’. The clam extracts energy by pumping air through a specially designed (Wells) turbine. Although operation of the Wells turbine does not require a rectified air flow, some additional control will be necessary to optimize the phase of the clam motion for good efficiencies. An examination of the equation of motion in the time domain suggests the possibility of phase control by mechanical, power take-off, or pneumatic latching. Latching can be shown to increase the efficiency of the device in the longer wavelengths of the wave spectrum, i.e. those of high incident wave power. Equivalently latching could be used to keep the device efficiency high while reducing its size, possibly resulting in cheaper power extraction.     

在各类天气系统影响下石臼港沿岸波浪场的分布

本文查阅了从１９７３－１９８５，１３年的历史资料，对石臼港沿岸波浪场进行了详细的分类、统计分析和计算，提出了各类较强天气系统影响石（即指石臼港）的极端区域，同时获得了石港沿岸各类天气系统影响下的波浪分布特点以及波高计算式，为保障石港的生产及港口建设为石港的波了提供了有益的分析数据和预报手段。     

大鹏湾潮流数值计算

应用分步杂交方法建立了大鹏湾边界潮流数值模型，并对其进行了模拟计算，重现了该区域潮波及潮流的分布规律，并根据实测资料对其进行了验证，从而可系统地了解这一海区的潮波系统及潮流场等海洋要素的分布情况。