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951.
The territory of Croatia and neighboring regions is divided into 17 seismic source zones, considering available seismological
and geological data. On this basis, seismic hazard elements (seismicity rate, maximum magnitude, b-value, probabilities of
exceedance and return periods for a predefined set of magnitudes) are computed using the maximum likelihood method appropriate
for treating data-sets with variable completeness thresholds. The values of long term expected peak horizontal acceleration
obtained by using a combination of the deterministic and the probabilistic procedure are the highest in the Dubrovnik zone,
while the Zagreb zone has the highest earthquake hazard in the continental part of the country.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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A detailed analysis of the 35 yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5 yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3 km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5 yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30 km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T w =3 yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M min =2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T w ≤7, 2.2≤ M min ≤2.8. 相似文献
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Kees Wapenaar 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,135(2):585-594
The derivation of seismic reflection and transmission coefficients is generally based on the assumption that the medium parameters behave as step functions of depth, at least in a finite region around the interface. However, outliers observed in well logs generally behave quite differently from step functions. In this paper we represent an interface by a self-similar singularity, embedded between two homogeneous half-spaces, and we derive its frequency-dependent normal-incidence reflection and transmission coefficients. For ω → 0 the expressions for the coefficients reduce to those for a discrete boundary between two homogeneous half-spaces; for ω → ∞ they become frequency-independent. These asymptotic expressions have a relatively simple form and depend on the singularity exponent α .
The exact as well as the asymptotic expressions are used to evaluate the time-domain reflection and transmission responses of a self-similar interface. Finally, we use a numerical method to model the response of a smoothed version of a self-similar interface (note that the velocity of a smoothed singularity remains finite). It turns out that smoothing has hardly any effect on the response, provided that the smoothing does not affect the scales corresponding to the seismic frequency range. 相似文献
The exact as well as the asymptotic expressions are used to evaluate the time-domain reflection and transmission responses of a self-similar interface. Finally, we use a numerical method to model the response of a smoothed version of a self-similar interface (note that the velocity of a smoothed singularity remains finite). It turns out that smoothing has hardly any effect on the response, provided that the smoothing does not affect the scales corresponding to the seismic frequency range. 相似文献
960.
The ML 5.3 Épagny (French Alps) earthquake of 1996 July 15: a long-awaited event on the Vuache Fault