东南亚地震活动与b 值的时空分布特征

东南亚地区是“21世纪海上丝绸之路”（以下简称“海洋丝路”）的重要组成部分,该区历史上曾发生十余次巨大地震,地震及其次生地质灾害是威胁东南亚地区经济社会发展和国际合作的主要自然灾害。系统梳理该区地震活动的时空分布特征及评估未来灾害风险格局,对于推进“一带一路”倡议实施及区域经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。文章基于东南亚地区1900年以来M≥5地震的时空分布统计分析和地震b值计算,揭示出该区的地震活动在时间上表现出活跃期与平静期交替变化的特征;空间上表现出明显的聚集效应,成丛性强且主要集中在5个地震统计区内,其中印尼—马来多岛弧盆系地震区和菲律宾群岛地震区的地震活动最为活跃。总体而言,东南亚5个地震区的b值偏低,在0.42~0.91之间。该区内的地震b值也存在时空差异,受大地震事件、俯冲带年龄、活动断裂带和震源深度等众多因素影响,但主控因素在不同区域有所不同。地震b值时空变化特征对区域地震活动预测具有启示作用。上述认识为推进“海洋丝路”工程建设和“一带一路”防灾减灾对策提供了科学支撑。     

青藏高原东缘湖相沉积和黄土高原黄土沉积磁化率与粒度相关性对比*

为探讨构造稳定地区(如黄土高原)和构造活跃地区(如青藏高原东缘)粉尘沉积物中磁化率(SUS)与粒度的相关性及其对环境事件的指示意义,本次研究分析了黄土高原蓝田剖面黄土—古土壤样品和青藏高原东缘湖相沉积样品的粒度和磁化率记录。黄土高原黄土—古土壤沉积SUS与2~10 μm粒度组分最强正相关,青藏高原东缘湖相沉积的SUS与2~10 μm粒度组分最强负相关,反映2~10 μm粒度组分为黄土高原和青藏高原乃至亚洲干旱—半干旱地区连续稳定敏感的背景沉积组分。黄土高原黄土—古土壤沉积的SUS与32~63 μm粒度组分最强负相关,青藏高原东缘湖相沉积的SUS与32~63 μm粒度组分最强正相关,反映32~63 μm粒度组分不仅是黄土高原尘暴事件沉积的敏感指标,也是青藏高原东缘湖相沉积记录的地震事件敏感指标。SUS与粒度组分的相关性在青藏高原东缘地区地震事件层开始部分高于结束部分,也较好地反映地震事件为研究区添加新鲜沉积物后随地形地貌恢复逐步减少的过程。SUS与粒度组分相关性也受当地物源的影响。     

盾构扩挖地铁车站结构地震反应特性振动台试验

开展了近远场地震动作用下盾构扩挖地铁车站结构的振动台试验,分析了砂土模型地基的水平位移、地表变形、加速度、土压力反应及模型结构的加速度、应变等。结果表明：模型地基-结构体系的地震响应对中低频成分发育的地震波反应更为强烈;强震作用下地铁车站结构具有明显的空间效应,地下结构的存在将会改变模型地基表面变形的分布模式。小震时模型结构中柱的加速度反应自下而上逐渐增加,而大震时其反应规律变成先增大后减小;车站结构中板的加速度反应最大、底板次之、顶板最小;小震时,同等深度处模型结构的加速度反应与模型地基土的加速度反应大小相当,侧墙的动土压力自下而上逐渐增大;大震时,模型结构的加速度反应明显大于同深度处模型地基土的加速度反应,动土压力的最大值发生在扩挖隧道的拱肩和中间部位。基于震后模型结构的宏观现象和拉应变幅值,给出了砂土地基中盾构扩挖车站结构的地震损伤演化机制。     

甘肃花草滩煤矿区沉积相演化与内部构造的地质意义探讨

花草滩煤矿区地处北祁连褶皱带中段北侧,酒东盆地东端。古生界和中生界地层在区内发育较完整,其中石炭系太原组为含煤地层。经二、三维地震勘探、钻探等工作证实矿床总体上受单斜构造控制。石炭纪中期盆地呈逐渐上升趋势,沉积相演化经历了由海相逐渐过渡到海陆交汇相,再到陆相沉积的阶段。F5和F8断层具顺层断裂特征,破坏煤层的连续性,在一定程度上控制了瓦斯突出区的分带,可作为煤矿瓦斯含量高低的分界标志。     

准噶尔盆地西北缘三叠系地层格架的建立——来自岩性、地震、测井及地化方面的证据

准噶尔盆地西北缘三叠系一直是我国重要的油气攻关层位,然而其地层发育情况却长期存在争议,尤其是精细层位划分以及内部是否存在不整合界面的问题。本次研究结合了前人研究成果、岩性、测井、地震资料,并以野外露头研究为基础,通过对深底沟—大侏罗沟、花园沟、黑油山沟、吐孜沟、水库沟5条野外剖面的考察,识别出各类标志层以及J/T、T/C、T3/T2、T2k2/T2k1、S6/S7界线,认为三叠系内部并不缺失S2、S3(砂组,位于T2k2),并可区分出此二层位,随即建立起多个野外剖面的时空对应关系;此外,本次研究还通过不同岩性岩石测井响应特征将下三叠统划分为3段6砂组,将上三叠统划分为3段7砂组,将中三叠统则更细划分为2段7砂组14小层,并通过元素地层学方法对层位进行了局部检验。     

A Bayesian network approach for predicting seismic liquefaction based on interpretive structural modeling

The Bayesian network (BN) is a type of graphical network based on probabilistic inference that has been gradually applied to assessment of seismic liquefaction potential. However, how to construct a robust BN remains underexplored in this field. This paper aims to present an efficient hybrid approach combining domain knowledge and data to construct a BN that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and the quantification of uncertainties within a network model to assess seismic liquefaction. Initially, only using given domain knowledge, a naive network model can be constructed using interpretive structural modeling. Thereafter, some effective information about the naive model is provided to construct a robust model using structural learning of BN from historic data. Finally, the returning predictive results and the predictive results are compared to other methods including non-probabilistic and probabilistic models for seismic liquefaction using the metrics of the overall accuracy, the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic, prediction, recall and F₁ score. The methodology proposed in this paper achieved better performance, and we discussed the power and value of the proposed approach at the end of this paper, which suggest that BN is a good alternative tool for seismic liquefaction prediction.     

小江断裂带地壳运动特征及地震危险性研究

利用1999~2013年间川滇地区的GPS速度场观测数据和块体模型研究小江断裂带地壳运动特征及地震危险性。结果表明:小江断裂带闭锁程度较高,应变量积累较大,在地表以下6km的闭锁程度约为0.94,滑动亏损速率约为(9.2±0.4)mm/a,整条断裂带左旋走滑速率约为(10.8~12.1)mm/a。结合小江断裂带上的历史地震数据估算,小江断裂带未来地震最大震级为7.3级,与近年来断裂带活动较为活跃相吻合。     

基于反射地震资料探讨泥河湾盆地的新生代和中生代地层

查明泥河湾盆地新生界及中生界地层序列及基底的分布与赋存形态是研究泥河湾盆地形成机制的基础性工作。本研究在泥河湾盆地桑干河与壶流河交接处附近采集了四条测线的反射地震数据,通过对精细处理后的地震剖面进行详细分析,在剖面上厘定了三个具有明显强反射标志的地层,即古近系的玄武岩、侏罗系上统的含煤地层和侏罗系下统的含煤地层;其中,新近系沉积层与古近系玄武岩界面在地震剖面上出现的双程旅行时为0.3~0.6s,深度范围为300~500m,而第四系泥河湾组底界由南西到北东逐渐加深,其界面深度为200~300m;侏罗系上统含煤地层在地震剖面上出现的双程旅行时在0.8s上下波动,其深度约为1200m,探测出侏罗系上统顶界面的深度范围为800~1100m;侏罗系下统含煤地层在地震剖面上出现的双程旅行时为1.0~1.4s,深度范围为1800~2000m,由此推测出中生界侏罗系与古生界寒武系地层分界线的深度为2000m左右;根据地震反射波阻抗差别推测出新元古界和太古界地层的分界面在地震剖面上出现的时间约为2.5s,其深度为4000m左右。本研究通过四条反射地震测线的数据基本上查明了泥河湾盆地位于探测区处第四系泥河湾组底界面的深度分布范围及起伏形态、侏罗系上统顶界面和下统底界面的大致埋深,为查明泥河湾盆地新生界及中生界地层序列提供了基础性的参考信息。     

Nature,origin and evolution of a Late Pleistocene incised valley‐fill,Sunda Shelf,Southeast Asia

Understanding the stratigraphic fill and reconstructing the palaeo‐hydrology of incised valleys can help to constrain those factors that controlled their origin, evolution and regional significance. This condition is addressed through the analysis of a large (up to 18 km wide by 80 m deep) and exceptionally well‐imaged Late Pleistocene incised valley from the Sunda Shelf (South China Sea) based on shallow three‐dimensional seismic data from a large (11 500 km²), ‘merge’ survey, supplemented with site survey data (boreholes and seismic). This approach has enabled the characterization of the planform geometry, cross‐sectional area and internal stratigraphic architecture, which together allow reconstruction of the palaeo‐hydrology. The valley‐fill displays five notable stratigraphic features: (i) it is considerably larger than other seismically resolvable channel forms and can be traced for at least 180 km along its length; (ii) it is located in the axial part of the Malay Basin; (iii) the youngest part of the valley‐fill is dominated by a large (600 m wide and 23 m deep), high‐sinuosity channel, with well‐developed lateral accretion surfaces; (iv) the immediately adjacent interfluves contain much smaller, dendritic channel systems, which resemble tributaries that drained into the larger incised valley system; and (v) a ca 16 m thick, shell‐bearing, Holocene clay caps the valley‐fill. The dimension, basin location and palaeo‐hydrology of this incised valley leads to the conclusion that it represents the trunk river, which flowed along the length of the Malay Basin; it connected the Gulf of Thailand in the north with the South China Sea in the south‐east. The length of the river system (>1200 km long) enables examination of the upstream to downstream controls on the evolution of the incised valley, including sea‐level, climate and tectonics. The valley size, orientation and palaeo‐hydrology suggest close interaction between the regional tectonic framework, low‐angle shelf physiography and a humid‐tropical climatic setting.     

Clinoform geometry,geomorphology, facies character and stratigraphic architecture of a sand‐rich subaqueous delta: Jurassic Sognefjord Formation,offshore Norway

The integration of core sedimentology, seismic stratigraphy and seismic geomorphology has enabled interpretation of delta‐scale (i.e. tens of metres high) subaqueous clinoforms in the upper Jurassic Sognefjord Formation of the Troll Field. Mud‐prone subaqueous deltas characterized by a compound clinoform morphology and sandy delta‐scale subaqueous clinoforms are common in recent tide‐influenced, wave‐influenced and current‐influenced settings, but ancient examples are virtually unknown. The data presented help to fully comprehend the criteria for the recognition of other ancient delta‐scale subaqueous clinoforms, as well as refining the depositional model of the reservoir in the super‐giant Troll hydrocarbon field. Two 10 to 60 m thick, overall coarsening‐upward packages are distinguished in the lower Sognefjord Formation. Progressively higher energy, wave‐dominated or current‐dominated facies occur from the base to the top of each package. Each package corresponds to a set of seismically resolved, westerly dipping clinoforms, the bounding surfaces of which form the seismic ‘envelope’ of a clinoform set and the major marine flooding surfaces recognized in cores. The packages thicken westwards, until they reach a maximum where the clinoform ‘envelope’ rolls over to define a topset–foreset–toeset geometry. All clinoforms are consistently oriented sub‐parallel to the edge of the Horda Platform (N005–N030). In the eastern half of the field, individual foresets are relatively gently dipping (1° to 6°) and bound thin (10 to 30 m) clinothems. Core data indicate that these proximal clinothems are dominated by fine‐grained, hummocky cross‐stratified sandstones. Towards the west, clinoforms gradually become steeper (5° to 14°) and bound thicker (15 to 60 m) clinothems that comprise medium‐grained, cross‐bedded sandstones. Topsets are consistently well‐developed, except in the westernmost area. No seismic or sedimentological evidence of subaerial exposure is observed. Deposition created fully subaqueous, near‐linear clinoforms that prograded westwards across the Horda Platform. Subaqueous clinoforms were probably fed by a river outlet in the north‐east and sculpted by the action of currents sub‐parallel to the clinoform strike.