Analysis of Post-Failure Slope Movements within the Framework of Hazard and Risk Analysis

The paper first recalls briefly a methodological framework to assess landslide hazard and risk analysis in terms of predisposition, triggering andrevealing factors. This framework, that reflects the mechanisms involved in the landslide, is based on the Geotechnical Characterisation of slope movements proposed by Vaunat et al. (1994) and Leroueil et al. (1996). The Geotechnical Characterisation can be schematized by a 3-D matrix having the following axes: types of movement; types ofmaterial; and the four stages of movement: pre-failure, failure, post-failure andreactivation. For each relevant element of this 3-D matrix, there is a characterisationsheet including: the controlling laws and parameters, the predisposition factors, thetriggering or aggravating factors, the revealing factors and the consequences of the movement. The paper focuses afterwards on the post-failure stage, which generallyis the most destructive, and on the mobility index. It is shown that this laterindex can be described as the product of sub-indices associated with failure, brittlenessof the material, ability of the soil to develop pore pressures, geometry of the moving soil mass and characteristics of the terrain. It is also shown how these aspectscan be incorporated into the Geotechnical characterisation of slope movements. This seems to provide a rational basis for examining slope movements at the post-failure stage and assessing associated risks.     

Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration

A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground accelerationat the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future timeinterval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method areseismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a givenpoint and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law).The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influenceof uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sitesin Greece.     

An automated strategy for calculation of phase diagram sections and retrieval of rock properties as a function of physical conditions

We formulate an algorithm for the calculation of stable phase relations of a system with constrained bulk composition as a function of its environmental variables. The basis of this algorithm is the approximate representation of the free energy composition surfaces of solution phases by inscribed polyhedra. This representation leads to discretization of high variance phase fields into a continuous mesh of smaller polygonal fields within which the composition and physical properties of the phases are uniquely determined. The resulting phase diagram sections are useful for understanding the phase relations of complex metamorphic systems and for applications in which it is necessary to establish the variations in rock properties such as density, seismic velocities and volatile‐content through a metamorphic cycle. The algorithm has been implemented within a computer program that is general with respect to both the choice of variables and the number of components and phases possible in a system, and is independent of the structure of the equations of state used to describe the phases of the system.     

Documentary and Geological Records of Tsunamis in the Aegean Sea Region of Greece and their Potential Value to Risk Assessment and Disaster Management

Understanding the nature and impacts of tsunamis within the Aegean Sea region ofGreece is of importance to both the academic community and those organisationsconcerned with tsunami disaster management. In order to determine hazard and riskand consequently pre-plan mitigative strategies, it is necessary to analyse historical(documentary) and geological records of former tsunami events. Therefore, firstlythis paper provides a summary of the written sources of information on Aegeantsunamis paying particular attention to published catalogues. From the availabledata, it is noted that a large number of events have been reported during the last3500 years. Secondly, the paper provides a review of the published on-shore(terrestrial) geological records of tsunamis within the region. From this analysisit is seen that little geological evidence has been identified for the large numberof tsunamis reported in the catalogues. Thirdly, the paper considers the reliabilityof the written and geological records and how problems of accuracy, coverage,extent and reliability, may have potential implications for the estimation of hazardand risk. The paper concludes by making recommendations for disaster managers,geologists and historians to work closely together.     

Large-scale mass wasting in ancient volcanic materials

Giant landslides are significant hazards associated with many active volcanic edifices. We describe a similar feature on ancient (>4 Ma) volcanic deposits subject to active tectonism. The landslide is approximately 3 km long by 1 km wide, with an estimated depth of 400 m. Side margins are straight and parallel, mimicking regional structure; narrow valleys incised down these margins provide low-strength side-release surfaces. Between these is a giant slump consisting of at least four, largely intact, discrete blocks that have moved down-dip a distance of >500 m. A series of flows with areal extents ranging from 0.01 to 0.5 km² extends from the front of the failure. The materials represent an eroded sequence of andesite flows on the flanks of a stratovolcano. These have undergone two phases of hydrothermal alteration, and are deeply weathered to low-density (1040±80 kg m⁻³) silt (59%) and clay (35%) materials with strength properties typical of weathered silts (c=26±3 kN m⁻²; φ=42±8°). The size and location of this landslide preclude detailed geotechnical investigation of the failure. The worth of numerical stability analysis as an alternative technique in assessing the nature of the failure and hence the risk it poses to nearby communities is investigated. Sensitivity analysis identified likely conditions under which initial failure may have occurred: analyses for sensitivity to strength and earthquake acceleration needed conversion to critical combinations (F=1.0) of water table and strength/acceleration to remove the overriding influence of water table fluctuations. Failure was likely initiated either by a high water table level (83-84%), or some combination of intensity VII-IX earthquake waves together with water table heights of 40-80%. A general hazard assessment indicates that the risk associated with creep and catastrophic failure of the main mass is small, whereas the risk from flow failures near the toe of the landslide may be high. Important parameters (hydrological regime, flow failure morphology, age of initiation, and rates of movement) requiring closer investigation are identified. Development of a model is crucial to assessing the hazard associated with a feature such as that described here. With limited resources, a detailed stability analysis is a powerful tool as an initial stage in hazard analysis.     

Structure sismique du socle paléozoı̈que du bassin des Doukkala,Môle côtier,Maroc occidental. Indication en faveur de l'existence d'une phase éo-varisqueSeismic structure of the Doukkala basin,Palaeozoic basement,western Morocco: a hint for an Eovariscan fold-and-thrust belt

Seismic profiles and well data from the Doukkala basin unravel the structure of the Palaeozoic basement and suggest that this coastal zone of western Morocco was affected by a compressive phase during the Frasnian. This resulted in the formation of upright, plurikilometric folds associated with reverse faults (North Doukkala), and of asymmetrical folds associated with mostly west verging ramps (South Doukkala). Folding involved all pre-Upper Frasnian formations and caused partial or total hiatus of Upper Frasnian–Strunian strata. This event can be correlated with the orogenic phase reported from more internal domains of the Morocco Hercynian belt, where it is referred to as the ‘Bretonne’ or ‘Eovariscan’ phase. To cite this article: H. Echarfaoui et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 13–20     

井水位气压效率b值动态响应的断层-前兆场主应力组合模式

统计鲁03，04井流水作业闰的气压效率b值发现，在华北及其周缘绝大多数地震前两井前兆异常形态各异，经分析井孔定位断层走向与地震前兆场主应力的组合模式不同是产生上述现象的根本原因。     

数字遥测地震台网地震速报中文平台

叙述了数字遥测地震台网地震速报中平台程序基本流程和使用特点，程序采用Vi编程方法实现以二维坐标点阵结构显示汉字，与台网的交互软件（EDSP-IAS）中的WaveView程序自动链接运行，该闰台界面操作方便直观，易于定位地震参数，自动速报上网和自动寻呼。     

四川省房屋建筑易损性研究

研究房屋建筑易损性特征是防震减灾工作必不可少的环节之一，本文通过对多年工作的系统总结，得出四川省不同地区的房屋建筑易损性矩阵，全省房屋建筑抗震性能总体水平不高，这是造成地震灾害加重的主要原因之一，随着经济发展实力的提高，适当提高全省房屋建筑抗震设防水平可大大减轻特别是中强地震所造成的经济损失。     

耗能减震结构的受力分析与层间弹塑性变形简化计算方法

本文研究了安装粘弹性耗能器结构在常遇地震作用下层间最大剪力的分配情况 ,给出了层间最大剪力在结构构件与耗能器之间按刚度分配原则进行假想分配后 ,所得假想层间构件力与层间最大构件力之间的关系 ,以及假想层间附加力与层间最大附加力之间的关系 ,探讨了罕遇地震作用下安装粘弹性耗能器结构与安装软钢耗能器结构的层间弹塑性变形简化计算方法。