In 1983, inhabitants of the City of Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico, began to observe a series of differential settlements causing damages to constructions along linear trends parallel to a system of regional faults. The same phenomenon occurs in others cities of the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB), such as Celaya, Aguascalientes, and Querétaro, and is linked to a structurally controlled subsidence, caused by groundwater withdrawal, and the presence of geological faults. We define this subsidence type as Subsidence-Creep-Fault Processes (SCFP), based on the necessary elements for their generation, and we studied them through geophysical and geotechnical techniques. In Morelia, the geophysical investigations have been carried out using ground-penetrating radar (GPR). GPR profiles, perpendicular to the axis of the surface fault generated by the SCFP were carried out. The common-offset single-fold profiling was used, with a central frequency of 50 MHz. In all cases it has been possible to visualize a fault plane dividing two blocks, the presence of synthetic and antithetic faults, influence zones from 20 m to 40 m, and a maximum “net throw” of 4 m. Exploration trenches followed the same direction of the profiles obtained with GPR (perpendicular to the axis of the surface fault). These trenches exposed a fault plane dividing two blocks with different lithology, generating a maximum “net throw” of 4.40 m; as well they help in the determination of influence zones that varied from 14 m to 40 m. 相似文献
The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake.
Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical
source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault
seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source
region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated
that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults. 相似文献