Summary. A first-order form of the Euler's equations for rays in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth is obtained. The conditions affecting the velocity law for a monotonic increase, with respect to the arc length, in the angular distance to the epicentre, and in the angle of incidence, are the same in the ellipsoidal and spherical models. It is therefore possible to trace rays and to compute travel times directly in an ellipsoidal earth as in the spherical model. Thus comparison with the rays of the same coordinates in a spherical earth provides an estimate of the various deviations of these rays due to the Earth's flattening, and the corresponding travel-time differences, for mantle P -waves and for shallow earthquakes. All these deviations are functions both of the latitude and of the epicentral distance. The difference in the distance to the Earth's centre at points with the same geocentric latitude on rays in the ellipsoidal and in the spherical model may reach several kilometres. Directly related to the deformation of the isovelocity surfaces, this difference is the only cause of significant perturbation in travel times. Other differences, such as that corresponding to the ray torsion, are of the first order in ellipticity, and may exceed 1 km. They induce only small differences in travel time, less than 0.01s. Thus, we show that the ellipticity correction obtained by Jeffreys (1935) and Bullen (1937) by a perturbational method can be recovered by a direct evaluation of the travel times in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth. Moreover, as stated by Dziewonski & Gilbert (1976), we verify the non-dependence of this correction on the choice of the velocity law. 相似文献
The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
In this paper, I argue that genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have inherent potential to contribute to socially and environmentally sustainable agriculture by virtue of their ‘biological embeddedness’. Their actual ‘performance’ and how this contributes to sustainability depends on the ‘mutual shaping’ of technology and context. While much attention has been given to the design context of GMOs, this paper considers the influence of the application context and of users. A case study investigating the use of insect-resistant and herbicide-tolerant GM cotton in the cotton-growing region of New South Wales in Australia is presented. The study was based on focus groups with farmers and other stakeholders in a cotton-growing community. It demonstrated a range of direct and indirect effects of GM cotton use, both positive and negative for sustainability, and the ways in which these effects were influenced by the local social context. The influences of the biotechnology industry context, in limiting the contributions that gene technologies can make to sustainability, were also considered, and remedies suggested. I argue that the polarity of the GM debate is hindering progress on these issues, and that a more balanced approach to our analysis of GMOs is necessary in order to fully understand, and to influence, their role in the future of rural spaces. 相似文献
In this article the implementation and potential of the Seismotectonic Information System of the Campania Region (SISCam)
are described, in particular an application of this Web-based GIS system to the seismotectonic analysis of the Sannio area
(Southern Apennines) is performed. WEB-GIS technologies greatly contribute to both the environmental monitoring and the disaster
management of areas affected by high natural risks. Specifically the SISCam system has been developed with the aim of providing
easy access and fast diffusion, through Internet technology, of the most significant geological, geophysical, and territorial
data relative to the Campania Region. The Sannio area has been selected as our application example because it is among the
most active seismic regions in Italy. This portion of the Southern Apennines which was hit by the June 5, 1688 strong earthquake
(MW = 6.7, CPTI 1999) and by some low- and moderate-energy seismic sequences (1990–1992, 1997), is characterized by a complex
inherited tectonic setting and low-tectonic deformation rates that hide the seismogenic sources position. Since this case
study turned out to be complicated, the use of the SIScam WEB-GIS has become indispensable because it allowed us to visualize,
integrate and analyze all the data available, in order to obtain an accurate and direct picture of the seismotectonic setting
of the area. Moreover, a different approach of data analysis was necessary, due to the lack of up-to-date neotectonic and
structural data; therefore, the operation of this GIS system enabled us to process and generate some original informative
layers, through image analysis, such as new structural lineaments represented on a map of the potential active faults of the
area, which has been the final result of our application, as a contribution to new knowledge about the local seismic risk
parameters. 相似文献
Swath bathymetry data and seismic reflection profiles have been used to investigate details of the deformation pattern in the area offshore southwestern Taiwan where the Luzon subduction complex encroaches on the passive Chinese continental margin. Distinctive fold-and-thrust structures of the convergent zone and horst-and-graben structures of the passive margin are separated by a deformation front that extends NNW-ward from the eastern edge of the Manila Trench to the foot of the continental slope. This deformation front gradually turns into a NNE–SSW trending direction across the continental slope and the Kaoping Shelf, and connects to the frontal thrusts of the mountain belt on land Taiwan. However, the complex Penghu submarine canyon system blurs the exact location of the deformation front and nature of many morphotectonic features offshore SW Taiwan. We suggest that the deformation front offshore SW Taiwan does not appear as a simple structural line, but is characterized by a series of N–S trending folds and thrusts that terminate sequentially in an en-echelon pattern across the passive Chinese continental slope. A number of NE–SW trending lineaments cut across the fold-and-thrust structures of the frontal accretionary wedge and exhibit prominent dextral displacement indicative of the lateral expulsion of SW Taiwan. One of the prominent lineaments, named the Yung-An lineament, forms the southeastern boundary of the upper part of the Penghu submarine canyon, and has conspicuous influence over the drainage pattern of the canyon 相似文献
The Agulhas Ridge is a prominent topographic feature that parallels the Agulhas-Falkland Fracture Zone (AFFZ). Seismic reflection
and wide angle/refraction data have led to the classification of this feature as a transverse ridge. Changes in spreading
rate and direction associated with ridge jumps, combined with asymmetric spreading within the Agulhas Basin, modified the
stress field across the fracture zone. Moreover, passing the Agulhas Ridge’s location between 80 and 69 Ma, the Bouvet and
Shona Hotspots may have supplied excess material to this part of the AFFZ thus altering the ridge’s structure. The low crustal
velocities and overthickened crust of the northern Agulhas Ridge segment indicate a possible continental affinity that suggests
it may be formed by a small continental sliver, which was severed off the Maurice Ewing Bank during the opening of the South
Atlantic. In early Oligocene times the Agulhas Ridge was tectono-magmatically reactivated, as documented by the presence of
basement highs disturbing and disrupting the sedimentary column in the Cape Basin. We consider the Discovery Hotspot, which
distributes plume material southwards across the AAFZ, as a source for the magmatic material. 相似文献