Aspiration and reality: flood policy, economic damages and the appraisal process

Research shows that flood damage potential has increased significantly in the last 15 years. At the same time, flood policy has shifted away from simplistic flood defence towards 'living with floods' and 'making space for water'. This paper explores the mis-match between the aspiration in policy ideals, the reality of rising potential economic damages and the inability of the flood risk appraisal process to match the aspiration with the reality. Unless investment appraisal procedures are changed, the increase in damages will undermine policy changes that seek a different pattern of flood risk management, away from economically dominated decision-criteria towards more sustainable objectives.     

Slowness-backazimuth weighted migration: A new array approach to a high-resolution image

We have developed a new array method combining conventional migration with a slowness-backazimuth deviation weighting scheme. All seismic traces are shifted based on the theoretical traveltime of the scattered wave from specific gridpoints in a 3-D volume. Observed slowness and backazimuth are calculated for each raypath and compared with theoretical values in order to estimate slowness and backazimuth deviations. Subsequently, stacked energy calculated by a conventional migration method is weighted by the slowness and backazimuth deviations to suppress any arrival energy whose slowness and backazimuth are inconsistent with the expected theoretical values. This new method was applied to two P- wave data sets which comprise (1) underside reflections at the 410 and 660 km mantle discontinuities and (2) D" reflections as well as their corresponding synthetic data sets. The results show that the weighting scheme dramatically increases the resolution of the migrated images and enables us to obtain well-constrained, focused images, making upper-mantle discontinuities and D" reflections more distinct by reducing their surrounding energy.     

Whole mantle SH velocity model constrained by waveform inversion based on three-dimensional Born kernels

A whole mantle SH velocity model is obtained by using a unique data set and techniques. Body and surface waveforms including major and multi-orbit phases are used as a data set and are inverted by using 3-D Born kernels. The resultant model, SH18CE, reveals the different natures of the two major upwelling systems: the strong low velocity anomalies beneath Africa extend for more than 1000 km from the core–mantle boundary (CMB), whereas those beneath the Pacific are restricted to 300–400 km from the CMB. The results also show the variable natures of stagnant slabs on the 670 discontinuity around Japan: the depths of the strongest high velocity anomalies within the stagnant slabs are different region by region, which is consistent with the detailed delay time tomography model in this area.     

Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

Identifying linear and non-linear behaviour in reduced complexity modelling output using surrogate data methods

Validation of model output is an important issue in the environmental sciences. This is particularly the case for reduced complexity modelling approaches where verification of the underlying equations is often problematic. Hence, methods that go beyond validation based on average values or the histogram of model output, are clearly advantageous. In this paper we show that a validation method based on the serial properties of time–space data, and developed in geomorphology, is a useful alternative but is nevertheless still insensitive to certain asymmetric characteristics of the signal. Hence, use of this method for validation may be enhanced by the adoption of an accompanying test for asymmetry in the model output.     

Does a one point sample adequately characterize the lake environment for paleoenvironmental calibration studies?

A major goal of paleolimnological studies is the quantification of past environmental conditions. This is accomplished by computing transfer functions relating organism assemblages to environmental factors. The environmental data are typically comprised of a point sample of water chemistry and other environmental parameters that are collected at the same time as a surface sediment sample. We explore whether the year of sampling of the environmental variables affects the parameterization of organism-environment relations, in particular chironomids, ostracodes and diatoms. Canonical correspondence analyses revealed that the year of sampling is of secondary importance when relating the organism assemblages to environmental variables, but only with the major explanatory variables. A chironomid-inferred bottom water temperature partial least squares transfer function revealed similar performance statistics between the years. Taxon optima and tolerances were computed for both years using weighted averaging, and the results are comparable. A paired t-test computed on the proxy-inferred bottom water temperature values indicated that the results between the 2 years are not statistically different. The results of this study provide guarded optimism that the methodology of estimating transfer functions as currently applied is not entirely determined by the particular year when the data were collected, although more case studies are needed.     

区域旅游发展的生态安全系统分析——-以内蒙古自治区四子王旗为例

旅游发展有时会给目的地带来负面影响, 为了诊断其整体发展水平, 采用“压力―状态―响应”框架模型, 以内蒙古自治区四子王旗为例, 来分析区域旅游生态系统的安全状态。从旅游生态环境压力、旅游生态环境质量和 旅游生态环境保护整治及建设能力3 个方面来考虑, 根据层次分析法原理及各评价指标间的相互关系, 构建层次 结构模型, 和23 个指标。经过对评价指标不安全指数值的计算和标准值的确定以及指标权重值的确定, 再利用各 指标的不安全度公式和总体生态系统不安全度公式计算出旅游生态系统处于较不安全状态, 并讨论了甄别各因子 对生态系统的限制程度的方法, 对区域旅游发展的生态系统安全分析具有现实意义。     

基于OMI卫星数据的城市对流层NO2变化趋势研究

利用OMNO2全球产品卫星遥感资料研究科技城市北京、交通城市黄骅港、旅游城市三亚、特区城市深圳和工业城市抚顺的NO2月平均变化情况。通过Beat软件和IDL联合编程对该产品进行处理,得到各城市对流层NO2垂直柱密度的月平均值;对各城市2004年10月至2007年10月的NO2月平均变化进行线性正弦模型模拟,得到月平均变化趋势和月增长率,并评价变化趋势的精度。结果显示,各城市在冬季NO2对流层垂直柱密度较大,夏季较小,季节性循环明显。北京、黄骅港、三亚、抚顺在这段时间NO2总体呈增加趋势,从大到小依次是:抚顺、北京、黄骅港和三亚,深圳呈减少趋势。根据趋势显著性判别准则,各城市的NO2月平均变化均显著。另外相对于2004年10月,月相对增长率从大到小依次是抚顺、三亚、黄骅港、北京、深圳,其中深圳的NO2呈现负增长。     

城市化进程中的人居安全协调发展研究——以大连市为例

城市人居安全反映城市社会中的与人们居住生活密切相关的诸因素,以及这些因素给人们的健康和生命安全造成的影响状况。从城市人居环境的角度,提出人居安全的概念,并以大连市为例进行深入探讨。在研究大连市的人居安全和城市化发展现状的基础之上,运用主成分分析和协调度分析等方法,进一步探究两个系统之间的动态协调关系。研究结果表明：大连人居安全状况良好,可将1990-2004年的15年分3个发展阶段;大连人居安全与城市化之间关系密切,相关系数达到了0．960;大连市人居安全与城市化的协调度指数多在0．7-1．0之间,反映出协调度状况良好。