三峡工程建成后枯水期运行的气候风险研究

通过蒙特卡罗试验, 探讨了三峡工程建成后枯水期运行风险的评估方法。以GCM模拟试验结果为未来气候情景, 随机模拟了三峡地区在该气候情景下枯水期月降水量分布; 建立了三峡地区月径流-降水模型和三峡水库调度模型; 初步分析了长江三峡工程建成后在当前气候背景和可能未来气候情景下的运行风险。结果表明, 三峡水库的运行对气候变化反应敏感, 春季和冬季的发电风险有明显改变。     

河南省飞机人工增雨试验方案设计

借鉴国内外已有的探测和分析研究成果，结合国内人工增雨飞机的性能，着重介绍在催化作业和探测时，开展等半径盘旋上升（或下降）垂直观测，和在特定高度上进行水平观测的方案设计及其资料收集、处理、存档的流程。为开展人工增雨作业、观测提供科学依据。     

Material component to non-linear relation between sediment yield and drainage network development: an flume experimental study

This paper examines the experimental study on influence of material component to nonlinear relation between sediment yield and drainage network development completed in the Lab. The area of flume drainage system is 81.2 m2, the longitudinal gradient and cross section slope are from 0.0348 to 0.0775 and from 0.0115 to 0.038, respectively. Different model materials with a medium diameter of 0.021 mm, 0.076 mm and 0.066 mm cover three experiments each. An artificial rainfall equipment is a sprinkler-system composed of 7 downward nozzles, distributed by hexagon type and a given rainfall intensity is 35.56 mm/hr.cm2. Three experiments are designed by process-response principle at the beginning the Ψ shaped small network is dug in the flume. Running time spans are 720 m, 1440 minutes and 540 minutes for Runs I, IV and VI, respectively. Three experiments show that the sediment yield processes are characterized by delaying with a vibration. During network development the energy of a drainage system is dissipated by two ways, of which one is increasing the number of channels (rill and gully), and the other one is enlarging the channel length. The fractal dimension of a drainage network is exactly an index of energy dissipation of a drainage morphological system. Change of this index with time is an unsymmetrical concave curve. Comparison of three experiments explains that the vibration and the delaying ratio of sediment yield processes increase with material coarsening, while the number of channel decreases. The length of channel enlarges with material fining. There exists non-linear relationship between fractal dimension and sediment yield with an unsymmetrical hyperbolic curve. The absolute value of delaying ratio of the curve     

A research on grey numerical imitation and modeling of groundwater seepage system

Based on grey set, grey numbers and their operation properties, the grey numerical model of groundwater seepage system was set up for the first time, the whole grey solving method of the model was given and it was proved that the common solving method of the model was only a special case of the grey solving methods. At the same time, the grey solving method was compared widely with common solving method, classical numerical method. The study shows that the grey solving method is better in depicting the procedure of transporting grey data of groundwater system. On the basis of the theoretical study, two basic kinds of cases about groundwater seepage were selected: the prediction of pit yield and the evaluation of groundwater resources on a groundwater basin. In the cases, systematical analyses were made for generalization and greylization of the hydrogeologic conditions, setting up of the grey model, identification and correction of the model as well as its prediction and evaluation. It was pointed out that when the grey numerical model is used to predict pit yield, the upper limit of the “grey band” of groundwater level cannot be higher than planed safe groundwater level, when evaluating the groundwater resource, the lower limit of the “grey band” of groundwater level cannot be lower than controlled level of groundwater.     

煤岩及煤岩加不同介质的热模拟地球化学实验--气态和液态产物的产率以及演化特征

对塔里木盆地侏罗系煤岩以及煤岩加不同介质等 4个系列以 50℃为一温阶,从 250～550℃进行热模拟实验,并对其气体产物、液态有机质进行了系统分析。结果表明:煤岩成烃过程是一个综合作用的过程,它的生气、生油与外界环境如水,粘土矿物等的辅助作用有关。随着热模拟温度的升高,各产气率呈增长趋势。介质的加入可降低有机质成烃温度,有利于液态物的产出。     

评定渗流管涌公式

根据工程实际问题，推导了在江河堤围、深基坑开挖和矿山法地铁开挖三种情况下的评定渗流管涌公式，并指出应根据不同情况选用不同的评定渗流管涌公式，及使用中必须考虑的问题。     

Oxidation Experiment of Natural Megacrystal Clinopyroxene: Implications for Assignment of Mössbauer Spectra

The Mössbauer spectra of natural megacrystal clinopyroxene are usually fitted by 4 sets of symmetric doublets, A‐A', B‐B', C‐C' and D‐D', respectively, in terms of increasing Qs value in literature. But the assignments of those doublets are quite different, except the D‐D' doublet assigned to Fe³⁺at the lattice site M***1 in previous papers. Particularly, the assignment and interpretation of the C‐C' doublet are diverse. The oxidation experiments of natural megacrystal clinopyroxene collected from the Hannuoba basalt, North China, were performed under controlled conditions of temperature at 1000°C and oxygen fugacity of FMQ buffer in 1, 2, ***3 and 5 days respectively. The oxidized samples were then measured by X‐ray diffraction spectrometry and Mössbauer spectrometry. The oxidation of clinopyroxene is characterized by Fe²⁺ → Fe³⁺at M1 under the subsolidus conditions, which is consistent with the increase of the area of the D‐D' doublet when the heating time increases. Accordingly, the area of the A‐A' and B‐B' doublets decreases with the increasing heating time. However, the area of C‐C' keeps almost constant. Therefore, the 4 sets of doublets can be assigned correctly as follows: A‐A' doublet to Fe⁺²at M1, B‐B' Fe²⁺at M1, C‐C' Fe²⁺at M2, and D‐D' Fe³⁺at M1. The M1 site splitting is due to the NNN (Next Nearest Neighbour) effect of the M2 site. The amount of Fe³⁺at the tetrohedral site of megacrystal clinopyroxene is negligible according to this study.     

赤道印度洋-太平洋地区海气系统的齿轮式耦合和ENSO事件 II.数值模拟

首先应用IAP/LASG GOALS气候模式的多年积分的结果，对赤道中西太平洋和印度洋 的SST和纬向风场进行分析，发现在模式中也同样存在与观测资料分析结果相似的“印太齿 轮式耦合”。基于此，设计了赤道太平洋和印度洋海域纬向风应力异常的4组敏感性试验， 去研究太平洋和印度洋海气相互作用的联系。结果表明，在太平洋或印度洋上的大气异常 信号通过印-太齿轮组合（GIP）作为桥梁（atmospheric bridge），影响到另一地的海气 相互作用，从而将太平洋上的ENSO类年际变率信号与印度洋环流和亚洲季风纬向分量的变 化联系起来。     

SPECTRUM期间目标台风移动的数值试验

在目标台风Ｙａｎｃｙ的移动过程中，选择４个时段进行预报数值试验。模式初始场系根据ＳＰＥＣＴＲＵＭ和ＴＣＭ－９０加强观测资料确定。结果表明：实际大气中目标台风移动的若干特征在模式大气中能够显示出来，如Ｙａｎｃｙ在１９９０年８月２０日００时移向的转折现象等；台风非对称结构的低频振荡是产生移向转折现象的一个重要原因。     

极地海冰异常对我国夏季大气环流和降水影响的数值研究

利用全球大气环流谱模式分别进行了南极和北极海冰面积异常偏大和偏小的数值试验，对６－８月的结果进行了对比分析，讨论了极地海冰异常对我国夏季大气环流和降水的可能影响。结果表明，南极或北极海冰面积异常偏大，则我国夏季风变弱，特别蝇使得南亚高压、西北太平洋副热带高压等减弱。南极海冰面积偏大使得我国黄河－长江－带地区降水减少，北极海冰面积偏大，造成我国东部地区的降水量有所减少，模拟结果与统计分析相一致。可同