The Role of Coffee in the Development of Southwest Ethiopia's Forests: Farmers' Strategies,Investor Speculation,and Certification Projects

This article examines the role of coffee in the agriculture of southwest Ethiopian highlands, a context characterized by recent huge private coffee estate developments, coffee certification projects and smallholdings. The analysis shows that smallholder farmers prioritize staple crops, and allocate land and labor to coffee only once food production objectives have been reached. It also underscores the diversity of the local peasantry, often treated as a homogeneous group in development projects designed to boost farmers' income through coffee production. Based on this analysis, the article evaluates the effects of recent coffee-oriented development policies: state forest concessions for coffee investment, and two coffee certification projects (UTZ-Certified and Fair-Trade/Organic). Because they omit the differentiated farmers' strategies, these certification initiatives fail to improve local populations' livelihoods and accelerate incipient socioeconomic inequalities. Moreover, when applied to big private plantations, they participate in farmers' dispossession from critical forest resources essential to households' food self-sufficiency.     

粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

基于现代全球变化研究中关于脆弱性和粮食安全的概念,把历史时期的粮食安全分解为粮食生产安全、粮食供给安全、粮食消费安全3个层次,以气候变化直接影响粮食生产水平为起点,分析气候变化-农(牧)业收成-食物的人均供给量-饥民-社会稳定性的驱动-响应链中的关键过程,指出气候变化影响的驱动-响应关系不能归结为简单的因果关系,诸如耕地、人口、政策、外来势力都会对气候变化的影响起着放大或抑制的作用。     

基于PCA和LOGIT模型的网络入侵检测方法

针对高维度网络数据进行多类攻击行为检测的需求,提出一种基于PCA和Logit模型的网络入侵检测方法,通过PCA对网络数据降维、简化数据集和多项式Logit模型实现对不同攻击行为的识别并判别其类型。实验结果表明,方法在网络入侵识别上具有较理想的效果。     

Water on an urban planet: Urbanization and the reach of urban water infrastructure

Urban growth is increasing the demand for freshwater resources, yet surprisingly the water sources of the world's large cities have never been globally assessed, hampering efforts to assess the distribution and causes of urban water stress. We conducted the first global survey of the large cities’ water sources, and show that previous global hydrologic models that ignored urban water infrastructure significantly overestimated urban water stress. Large cities obtain 78 ± 3% of their water from surface sources, some of which are far away: cumulatively, large cities moved 504 billion liters a day (184 km³ yr⁻¹) a distance of 27,000 ± 3800 km, and the upstream contributing area of urban water sources is 41% of the global land surface. Despite this infrastructure, one in four cities, containing $4.8 ± 0.7 trillion in economic activity, remain water stressed due to geographical and financial limitations. The strategic management of these cities’ water sources is therefore important for the future of the global economy.     

Can Protection Motivation Theory predict pro-environmental behavior? Explaining the adoption of electric vehicles in the Netherlands

Scholars have proposed that the Protection Motivation Theory provides a valuable framework to explain pro-environmental choices, by employing a wide set of predictors, such as the costs and benefits of current (maladaptive) behavior as well as prospective adaptive behavior. However, no comprehensive empirical tests of the Protection Motivation Theory in the slow onset environmental risk domain have been published yet to our knowledge. This paper aims at closing this gap. We first conceptualized the Protection Motivation Theory for the use in this environmental domain. Next, we present results of a questionnaire study among a large representative sample of Dutch drivers that showed that the Protection Motivation Theory is a relevant theory for modeling different indicators of full electric vehicle adoption. Notably, all theoretical antecedents proved to be significant predictors of different adoption indicators. Respondents were particularly more likely to adopt an electric vehicle when they perceived the negative consequences caused by conventional vehicles as more severe, and when they expected electric vehicles to decrease these consequences. The most important barriers for electric vehicle adoption were perceived high monetary and non-monetary costs of electric vehicles, and benefits associated with the use of a conventional vehicle. Interestingly, we found that environmental risks are more prominent in predicting close adoption indicators; while energy security risks are more prominent in predicting distant adoption indicators. As expected, our findings suggest that both collective concerns and individual concerns predict different indicators of adoption. Individual concerns (in particular perceived costs of driving an electric vehicle) played a more prominent role when predicting close measures of adoption, while collective concerns (e.g., perceived severity of environmental and energy security risks) played a somewhat more prominent role when predicting distant measures of adoption. Implications for research and practice are provided.     

基于TEA算法的地理信息数据安全保护技术及验证分析

地理信息数据是国家国防建设和国民经济发展的重要基础数据,随着数字化、信息化及云计算等技术的发展,地理信息数据的安全威胁日益严峻,本文面对移动平台上地理信息数据安全存储、高效传输和实时信息解密及处理等挑战,提出了一种基于TEA算法的地理信息数据安全保护技术,该技术采用循环迭代的移位和异或运算实现对地理信息数据的加密和解密,可以实现移动平台端地理信息数据的高安全加密存储和高性能实时解密处理,并采用该算法对SRTM数据进行处理和分析。试验结果表明,基于TEA算法的地理信息数据加密技术可以有效实现地理信息数据的加密及解密处理,满足移动系统对地形数据的高安全存储和高性能处理的要求。     

Geographies of folded life: How immunity reframes biosecurity

Biosecurity, in broad terms, aims to reduce the impact and incidence of threats to life through regulatory means. For reasons we raise in this paper, such regulation can often lead to the specification of disease free processes within the food and farming industry, with biosecurity success measured in terms of the degree of compliance with and allegiance to modern farming practice. We counter this progressive narrative in three ways. First we draw on UK-based qualitative fieldwork with vets, farmers and pigs to demonstrate how biosecure farming and disease freedom are translated and qualified, in practice, to pathogen free, pathogen management and ultimately to configuring health through immunity management. Second, these translations demonstrate how building health is dependent on spatial and microbiological diversity rather than uniformity. Crucially, health involves patch-work and situated knowledge practices that are under threat within an industry increasingly marked by control and homogeneity. Third, in conceptual terms, we argue that while pig farming is organised through both biosecurity and a biopolitical regulation of life, immunity opens up political space for exploring an alternative politics of life, one where farmers and others are not so much made responsible for disease prevention, but make valued contributions to understandings of animal health and food security.     

基于网络形态的街道空间环境与“两抢一盗”犯罪的关系研究——以HS市原DP区为例

城市街道网络是承载人们日常行为的空间载体,街道网络及其中人的日常行为共同构成了主要的街道网络空间环境,并影响着犯罪行为的发生。既有研究表明街道空间中多发“两抢一盗”侵财类案件,并且街道网络形态和日常行为主体与犯罪存在联系,但对这一问题的深入探究较少。本文基于HS市原DP区的派出所辖区单元,使用路网数据、人口统计数据、手机信令数据等相关资料,采用空间分析和统计分析方法,对街道网络的几何形态和拓扑形态、动态人口和静态人口等因素与犯罪分布的关系展开分析,尝试探索街道网络空间环境对“两抢一盗”犯罪的影响。结果表明,街道网络空间环境中影响盗窃和两抢犯罪的要素存在较大差异。“X形单元”式街道网络、路网密度、低速交通的路网渗透性、静态人口密度和动态人口密度均对盗窃犯罪产生重要影响,与两抢犯罪相关的仅有“T形单元”式街道网络、静态人口中的实际居住户籍人员和外来人员密度,街道网络形态没有表现出与两抢犯罪的显著相关。最后提出,由于街道网络的通达性和危险性往往并存,如何通过调控或改善整体的街道网络空间环境来尽可能减少犯罪风险,是未来规划建设安全的街道网络空间需要思考的话题。     

黑龙江省内部中长期城镇人口迁移行为分析与建模

人口迁移的时空分异与影响机制一直是人口学研究关注的焦点。本文基于社保关系转移视角,从时间和空间两个维度探究黑龙江省城镇工作人口省内的中长期迁移规律与时空分异特征,并且结合人口推拉理论与OD模型,综合考虑经济和就业政策因素,建立了能够反映以社保劳动关系转移为基础的中长期人口迁移动力学模型。研究结果表明：基于社保关系的城镇工作人口迁移符合截断指数幂律分布,呈现列维飞行特点;该省省内人口迁出呈现多层级跨区域分布格局,人口迁入呈现“四核心-环东南”格局,人口迁入与迁出空间格局具有一定程度的类似性;黑龙江省边境城市人口流失情况较为严重;城镇职工迁移行为的无序性不断加大,迁移的频率较高;但是经过通过模拟,该省城镇职工的迁移系统趋向于平衡发展。