地球自转对强震震中附近中小地震的影响

论述2008年5月12日四川汶川Ms8.0地震和2010年4月14日青海玉树Ms7.1地震前震中附近中小地震和地球自转季节性变化的关系,介绍1970年以来中国大陆其他14例M≥7.0地震震例.研究发现,在强震前几年时间内,震中附近地区的中小地震有偏向发生于地球自转速率季节性变化加速或者减速某一阶段的现象.该结果对深入认识地震与地球自转之间的关系具有一定启示意义,对地震预测具有一定指导意义.     

Non-identical models for seasonal flood frequency analysis

Abstract

The aim is to build a seasonal flood frequency analysis model and estimate seasonal design floods. The importance of seasonal flood frequency analysis and the advantages of considering seasonal design floods in the derivation of reservoir planning and operating rules are discussed, recognising that seasonal flood frequency models have been in use for over 30 years. A set of non-identical models with non-constant parameters is proposed and developed to describe flows that reflect seasonal flood variation. The peak-over-threshold (POT) sampling method was used, as it is considered to provide significantly more information on flood seasonality than annual maximum (AM) sampling and has better performance in flood seasonality estimation. The number of exceedences is assumed to follow the Poisson distribution (Po), while the peak exceedences are described by the exponential (Ex) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions and a combination of both, resulting in three models, viz. Po-Ex, Po-GP and Po-Ex/GP. Their performances are analysed and compared. The Geheyan and the Baiyunshan reservoirs were chosen for the case study. The application and statistical experiment results show that each model has its merits and that the Po-Ex/GP model performs best. Use of the Po-Ex/GP model is recommended in seasonal flood frequency analysis for the purpose of deriving reservoir operation rules.     

福州城市森林凋落物动态及其归还量

2010年11月q011年10月,通过对福建省福州市区江滨公园内番石榴、南洋杉和黄花槐3种人工林的凋落物动态及其归还量进行研究,结果表明：番石榴、南洋杉凋落物量在4月和9月出现凋落高峰,而黄花槐凋落物量在4月和8月出现凋落高峰;亚热带城市森林凋落高峰主要受降水量、气温和人为因子共同影响;黄花槐、番石榴和南洋杉年凋落物量分别为6030．11±422．17、9701．21±657．30和8662．58±291．12kg·hm^-2·a^-1,黄花槐、番石榴和南洋杉凋落物碳含量在40．9—41．5％,凋落物c归还量分别为2466．31±175．20、4026．00±270．81和3568．98±119．07kg·hm^-2;树种和林分密度是各林分凋落物年归还量差异的主要原因,而单株凋落物年归还量主要受林分密度的影响．     

Experimental study on moisture migration of remodeled clay under different overburden pressure and temperature gradients

Unidirectional freezing experiments under overburden pressure were carried out, in order to study the driving force of mois-ture migration of remodeled clay during freezing, through improving the indoo...     

The effect of confining boundary on soil deformation in one dimensional frost heave tests and the theoretical volume correction

Frost heave is one of the major complications in highway construction in cold regions. Laboratory experiments are im-portant in the study frost heave behavior of soils, and one-dimensional frost heave ...     

Guidelines to Authors

正1.Aims and scope Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions(SCAR)is a bimonthly journal that publishes in English the latest research achievements in processes and the patterns of the Earth surface system in cold and arid regions.Researches in cold regions emphasize particularly on the cold-region-characterized physical,chemical and biological processes and their interactions,and on the response of cryosphere to global change and human activities as well as their effects on environment and the acclimatizable strategies;focus on the objects of glacier,snow,river,lake,sea ice,permafrost and seasonal frozen ground,and periglacial geomorphology,etc.;and think much of cold regions     

Intraseasonal predictability of the duration of flooding above National Weather Service flood warning levels across the U.S. Midwest

Unpreparedness is often the main cause of the economic and social damages caused by floods. To mitigate these impacts, short-term forecasting has been the focus of several studies during the past decades; however, less effort has been paid to flood predictions at longer lead times. Here, we use forecasts by six models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project with a lead time from 0.5 to 9.5 months to predict the seasonal duration of floods above four National Weather Service flood categories (“action,” “flood,” “moderate” and “major”). We focus on 202 U.S. Geological Survey gage stations across the U.S. Midwest and use a statistical framework which considers precipitation, temperature, and antecedent wetness conditions as predictors. We find that the prediction skill of the duration of floods for the “action” and “flood” categories is overall low, largely because of the low accuracy of the climate forecasts rather than of the errors introduced by the statistical models. The prediction skill slightly improves when considering the shortest lead times (i.e., from 0.5 to 2.5 months) during spring in the Northern Great Plains, where antecedent wetness conditions play an important role in influencing the generation of floods. It is very difficult to draw strong conclusions with respect to the “moderate” and “major” flood categories because of the limited number of available events.     

Land cover controls on depression‐focused recharge on the Oak Ridges Moraine,southern Ontario,Canada

The Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a key hydrogeologic feature in southern Ontario. Previous research has emphasized the importance of depression‐focused recharge (DFR) for the timing and location of water recharge to the ORM's aquifers. However, the significance of DFR has not been empirically demonstrated, and the ORM's permeable surficial deposits imply that rainfall and snowmelt will largely recharge vertically rather than move laterally to topographic depressions. The exception may be during winter and spring, when concrete soil frost limits infiltration and encourages overland flow. The potential for DFR was examined for closed depressions under forest and agricultural land covers with similar soils and surficial geology. Air temperatures, precipitation, snow depth and water equivalent, soil water contents, soil freezing, and depression surface‐water levels were monitored during the winter and spring of 2012–2013 and 2013–2014. Recharge (R) was estimated at the crest and base of each depression using a 1‐dimensional water balance approach and surface‐applied Br^? tracing. Both forest and agricultural land covers experienced soil freezing; however, forest soils did not develop concrete frost. Conversely, agricultural fields saw concrete frost, overland flow, episodic ponding, and subsequent drainage of rain‐on‐snow and snowmelt inputs in open depressions. Recharge at the base of open depressions exceeded that in surrounding areas by an order of magnitude, suggesting that DFR is a significant hydrologic process during winter and spring under agricultural land cover on the ORM. Closed topographic depressions under agricultural land cover on the ORM crest may serve as critical recharge “hot spots” during winter and spring, and the ability of the unsaturated zone beneath these depressions to modify the chemistry of recharging water deserves further attention.     

Seasonal patterns of pollen and the use of pollen as a chronometer in the north‐western Loess Plateau of China

The use of high‐resolution and highly precise age models is essential for quantitative environmental reconstructions. To assess the reliability of pollen as a chronometer in laminated lake sediments, pollen traps and lake cores, statistical methods were used to study seasonal pollen signals. The results showed that (a) the pollen assemblages from air traps and lake/reservoir surface sediment traps in the north‐western Loess Plateau of China displayed distinct seasonal patterns, which were confirmed by nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS); and (b) The pollen assemblages of the dark and light layers in the Zhenhu Lake cores allowed detection of the seasonality of sediment deposition based on the results of the pollen traps. The NMDS method also showed statistically significant differences between the pollen assemblages of the dark and light layers. Furthermore, instrumental monitoring data and characteristic time markers of historical events (1958 and 2011) were used to cross‐check the chronologies obtained by the pollen assemblages, and the results strengthened the credibility and reliability of pollen as a chronometer.     

On the hydrological difference between catchments above and below the intermittent-persistent snow transition

Because of the importance of snow for river discharge in mountain regions, hydrological research often focuses on seasonally snow-covered zones. However, in many basins the majority of the land surface area is intermittently snow-covered. Discharge monitoring in these areas is less common, so their contributions to downstream rivers remain largely unknown. We evaluated hydrological differences between three intermittently snow-covered (mean annual Jan 1–Jul 3 snow persistence <60%) and two seasonally snow-covered headwater catchments in the Colorado Front Range. We compared water balance variables to evaluate how and why discharge differs between the snow zones and estimated the relative contributions from each snow zone to regional river discharge. We focused on water years 2016–2019 and used a combination of in situ sensors and regional climate datasets. Annual discharge from the intermittent snow zone was low for all three catchments (10–77 mm), despite covering a wide range in annual snow persistence (25%–64%), whereas annual discharge from the seasonal snow zone was up to 73 times higher. Soil moisture in the seasonal snow zone was above field capacity for longer periods of time than in the intermittent snow zone, and the intermittent snow zone was uniquely subject to soil freezing (up to 102 days per year). For most of the year, potential evapotranspiration exceeded rainfall and snowmelt inputs in the intermittent snow zone, but was lower than rainfall and snowmelt inputs in the seasonal snow zone. This is likely a primary driver of the differences in soil moisture and discharge for catchments with a seasonal versus intermittent snow cover. Despite the large difference in discharge between these two snow zones, the intermittent snow zone contributed about a quarter of the discharge in the regional river, highlighting the importance of studying discharge generation across all elevations.