1990年以来北京密云水库主要水环境因子时空分布特征

根据19902011年密云水库共12个监测点的月监测资料,采用聚类分析研究各监测点水环境相似性及空间分布特征,采用因子分析识别影响水质的主要因子并评价各采样点的综合水质.通过绝对主成分多元回归分析,获得汛期和非汛期各因子对各水质指标的贡献率.利用季节性Kendall检验及流量调节检验对密云水库库区水化学特征和水质状况时空分布特征进行了研究.结果表明：汛期水质主要受到农业营养物质的影响,其次为生物化学因素和有机物的影响.非汛期水质主要受到农牧业排放因素的影响,其次为人类活动和生物化学因素的影响.因子得分综合评价显示,汛期辛庄桥、内湖和大关桥综合水质较差,潮河、库西和白河综合水质较好.非汛期辛庄桥、石佛桥和大关桥综合水质较差,库东、套里和恒河综合水质较好.主要水质指标的年际变化规律不同,但最终都趋于平稳.与潮河、白河入库水质变化相比,库区水质变化趋势较小,上游入库水质和库区水质都整体趋好.除白河入库的总氮和总磷外,其他监测指标的变化趋势经流量调节前后基本一致,表明流量并不是引起水质趋势变化的主要因素,水质的变化主要是由于污染源变化而引起.     

柯克亚凝析气田中新统西河甫组季节性河流沉积特征研究

柯克亚凝析气田中新统西河甫组在沉积特征上与正常的曲流河相比较为相似，如具有较典型的二元结构、中等砂岩成熟度、两段式的概率累积曲线、以单向水流为主的牵引流占主导地位的沉积构造等，同时也具有一些特殊性：①未发现有植物根迹，也没有含煤地层出现，在河漫滩亚相中缺少沼泽微相。②存在异常水流活动以及指示洪水重力流作用存在的沉积构造；③存在能反映氧化、河流季节性活动以及干旱气候环境的丰富而独特的遗迹化石组合，如Scoyenia组合和Skolithos组合等，上述特征反映其为干旱气候下的季节性河流沉积。     

国家气候中心短期气候预测模式系统业务化进展

该文简要介绍了国家气候中心短期气候预测模式系统的研发成果,并侧重于从海洋资料同化系统、陆面资料同化系统、月动力延伸预测模式系统、季节气候预测模式系统4个方面介绍了第2代短期气候预测模式系统的业务化进展。第2代海洋资料同化系统已初步建成,其对温盐的同化效果总体上优于第1代同化系统;陆面资料同化系统正在研发中,目前已完成其中的多源降水融合子系统的业务建设工作,可为陆面分量提供实时的大气降水强迫分析场;第2代月动力延伸预测系统基于国家气候中心大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.2建立,已于2012年8月进入准业务运行阶段;第2代季节预测模式系统基于国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1(m) 建立,将于2013年底投入准业务运行。初步评估表明:第2代月动力延伸预测模式系统和季节气候预测模式系统分别对候、旬、月和季节、年际时间尺度的气候变率体现出了一定的预测能力,其对降水、气温、环流等要素的预测技巧总体上要高于第1代预测系统。     

Application of Time-Series Model to Predict Groundwater Dynamic in Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China

To study the groundwater dynamic in the typical region of Sanjiang Plain, long-term groundwater level observation data in the Honghe State Farm were collected and analyzed in this paper. The seasonal and long-term groundwater dynamic was explored. From 1996 to 2008, groundwater level kept declining due to intensive exploitation of groundwater resources for rice irrigation. A decline of nearly 5 m was found for almost all the monitoring wells. A time-series method was established to model the groundwater dynamic. Modeled results by time-series model showed that the groundwater level in this region would keep declining according to the current exploitation intensity. A total dropdown of 1.07 m would occur from 2009 to 2012. Time-series model can be used to model and forecast the groundwater dynamic with high accuracy. Measures including control on groundwater exploitation amount and application of water saving irrigation technique should be taken to prevent the continuing declining of groundwater in the Sanjiang Plain.     

Downscaling of Precipitation over Vancouver Island using a Synoptic Typing Approach

A statistical downscaling technique is employed to link atmospheric circulation produced by an ensemble of global climate model (GCM) simulations over the twenty-first century to precipitation recorded at weather stations on Vancouver Island. Relationships between the different spatial scales are established with synoptic typing, coupled with non-homogeneous Markov models to simulate precipitation intensity and occurrence. Types are generated from daily precipitation observations spanning 1971 to 2000. Atmospheric predictors used to influence the Markov models are derived from two versions of GCM output: averages of GCM grid cells selected by correlation maps of circulation and precipitation data and an approach involving common Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) calculated from GCM output over the northeast Pacific Ocean. Projections for 2081 to 2100 made using averaged grid cells find that winter (November–February) precipitation anomalies produce modestly positive values, with gains of 7.5% in average precipitation, typical increases of 9.0% rising to 20% in the case of high-intensity precipitation, and little spatial dependence. In contrast, average and high-intensity summer precipitation (June–September) decline negligibly at most island weather stations with the exception of those in the southwestern sections, which experience reductions of 15% relative to 1971 to 2000. Projections made using common EOFs display a strong spatial dependence. Future winter precipitation is expected to increase only on the west coast of the island by 11%, on average, while the southeastern coast will experience decreases of 5% to 10%. The same pattern repeats in summer, though with negligible increases on the west coast and declines of 12% to 16% on the southeastern coast. The reliability of this novel EOF method remains to be confirmed definitively, however. In both seasons precipitation occurrence decreases slightly at all stations with declines in the total days with measurable precipitation ranging from 2% to 8%.

RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Nous employons une technique statistique de réduction d’échelle pour lier la circulation atmosphérique produite par un ensemble de simulations du GCM (Global Climate Model) durant le XXI^e siècle aux précipitations enregistrées à des stations météorologiques sur l’île de Vancouver. Les relations entre les différentes échelles spatiales sont établies au moyen d'un typage synoptique couplé avec des modèles markoviens non homogènes pour simuler l'intensité et la fréquence des précipitations. Les types sont générés à partir des observations quotidiennes de précipitations au cours de la période 1971–2000. Les prédicteurs atmosphériques utilisés pour influencer les modèles markoviens sont dérivés de deux versions de sorties du GCM : les moyennes de mailles du GCM sélectionnées par tables de corrélation des données de circulation et de précipitations et une approche fondée sur les fonctions orthogonales empiriques (EOF) communes calculées d'après la sortie du GCM pour le nord-est du Pacifique. Les projections pour la période 2081–2100 basées sur des moyennes de mailles montrent que les anomalies de précipitations hivernales (novembre–février) produisent de faibles valeurs positives, avec des gains de 7.5% dans les précipitations moyennes, des accroissements caractéristiques de 9.0% augmentant à 20% dans le cas des précipitations de forte intensité, et peu de dépendance spatiale. En revanche, les précipitations estivales (juin–septembre) moyennes et de forte intensité diminuent de façon négligeable à la plupart des stations météorologiques de l’île, à l'exception de celles situées dans secteur sud-ouest qui subissent une réduction de 15% par rapport à 1971–2000. Les projections faites à l'aide des fonctions orthogonales empiriques communes exhibent une forte dépendance spatiale. Les précipitations hivernales futures devraient augmenter seulement sur la côte ouest de l’île de 11% en moyenne alors que la côte sud-est connaîtra des diminutions de 5 à 10%. La même configuration se répète en été, bien qu'avec des accroissements négligeables sur la côte ouest et des diminutions de 12 à 16% sur la côte sud-est. La fiabilité de cette nouvelle méthode EOF reste toutefois à établir. Dans les deux saisons, la fréquence des précipitations diminue légèrement à toutes les stations, les diminutions du nombre total de jours avec précipitations mesurables variant entre 2 et 8%.     

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Seasonal heat budget in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean in a global GCM II. In five subregions

The general features of the seasonal surface heat budget in the tropical western Pacific Ocean, 20° S–20°N, western boundary −160°E, were documented by Qu (1995) using a high-resolution general circulation model (GCM, Semtner & Chervin, 1992) and existing observations. Close inspection of the smaller areas, with the whole region further partitioned into six parts, showed different mechanisms balance the seasonal surface heat budget in different parts of the region. The results of study on five subregions are detailed in this article. In the equatorial (3°S–3°N) and North Equatorial Countercurrent (3°N–9°N) region, the surface heat flux does not change significantly throughout the year, so the surface heat content is determined largely by vertical motion near the equator and roughly half due to horizontal and half due to vertical circulation in the region of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC). In the other subrigions (9°N–20°N, 20°S–11°S and 11°S–3°S), however, in addition to ocean dynamics, surface heat flux can also play a major role in the seasonal variation of sea surface temperature (SST). The remotely forced baroclinic waves and their effect on the surface heat storage in the model are also investigated. Comparison with observations indicates that the model wave activities are reasonably realistic. Contribution No. 2396 from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. This study was supported by the Australian CSIRO Division of Oceanography and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 49176255)     

Seasonal cycle of topography in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and its relationships with atmospheric forcing and oceanic adjustment based on altimetry data

Seasonal cycle is the most significant signals of topography and circulation in the Bohai Sea (BS)and Yellow Sea (YS) forced by prevailing monsoon and is still poorly understood due to lack of data in their interiors. In the present study, seasonal cycles of topography in the BS and YS and its relationship with atmospheric forcing and oceanic adjustment were examined and discussed using TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-I/2 Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) data. Analyses revealed complicated seasonal cycles of topography composed mainly of 2 REOF modes, the winter-summer mode (WlM) and spring-autumn mode (SAM). The WlM with action center in the BS displayed peak and southward pressure gradient in July, and valley and northward pressure gradient in January, which is obviously the direct response to monsoon with about l-month response time. The SAM with action center in the western south YS displayed peak and northward pressure gradient in October and valley and southward pressure gradient in April. After the mature period of monsoon, the action center in the BS becam eweakened while that in the western south YS became strengthened because of regional convergence or divergence induced by seasonal variations of the Taiwan Warm Current and Yellow Sea Coastal Current. The direct response of topography to monsoon resulted in the WIM, while oceanic adjustment of topography played an important role in the forming of the SAM.