Probability of combined high sea levels and large rains in Malmö, Sweden,southern Öresund

Observations of sea level and precipitation in Malmö, Sweden in the southeastern part of the sound Öresund have been used to estimate the probabilities of local compound events of high sea level and large daily and hourly rains. There are observations of sea level and daily rains extending back to 1930. The observations of short‐term rainfall are from 1980 and onwards. Most large rainfalls come in the summer, while the highest sea levels are in the autumn and in the winter. The highest observed sea level is about 130 cm above mean sea level, and the largest daily rain is close to 100 mm. However, the highest sea level observed during a day with rainfall corresponding to the 1‐year rain is less than 60 cm. The highest sea level observed during an hour with 1‐year hourly rainfall is 30 cm. From the statistics of daily rains, hourly rains and sea level, extreme values for each of them have been computed. For events with frequency higher than one per four years the probabilities of combined events sea level – rainfall are determined directly from the observations. For more rare events, marginal distributions of sea level and rainfall are determined. Copulas and conditional probabilities are used. When the sea level exceeds 20 cm above mean sea level, daily rains exceeding 10 mm are almost independent of the sea level and so are hourly rains exceeding 5 mm. It is extremely rare that large rains occur when the sea level is very high. The combination of 1‐year rainfall and the 1‐year sea level has a return period of more than 200 years.     

Snow and frost: implications for spatiotemporal infiltration patterns – a review

Vast regions of the northern hemisphere are exposed to snowfall and seasonal frost. This has large effects on spatiotemporal distribution of infiltration and groundwater recharge processes as well as on the fate of pollutants. Therefore, snow and frost need to be central inherent elements of risk assessment and management schemes. However, snow and frost are often neglected or treated summarily or in a simplistic way by groundwater modellers. Snow deposition is uneven, and the snow is likely to sublimate, be redistributed and partly melt during the winter influencing the mass and spatial distribution of snow storage available for infiltration, the presence of ice layers within and under the snowpack and, therefore, also the spatial distribution of depths and permeability of the soil frost. In steep terrain, snowmelt may travel downhill tens of metres in hours along snow layers. The permeability of frozen soil is mainly influenced by soil type, its water and organic matter content, and the timing of the first snow in relation to the timing of sub‐zero temperatures. The aim with this paper is to review the literature on snow and frost processes, modelling approaches with the purpose to visualize and emphasize the need to include these processes when modelling, managing and predicting groundwater recharge for areas exposed to seasonal snow and frost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南极普里兹湾营养盐分布特征及季节性消耗

利用中国南极科学考察CHINARE-25/27/29航次获取的普里兹湾营养盐数据,对该海域营养盐的含量分布特征进行了分析,利用水柱T_(min)层的存在估算了夏季的营养盐消耗量(NNU、NPU和NSiU),并对营养盐的吸收比例及结构做了初步探讨。结果显示,普里兹湾营养盐空间分布呈现明显的区域特征,上表层水营养盐浓度分布表现为冰架边缘区陆架区深海区的区域性特征。夏季普里兹湾受到浮游植物旺发的影响,湾内营养盐(NO_3-N、PO4_-P和SiO_3-Si)的消耗值相对湾外较高。营养盐吸收比值的变化表明,NSiU/NNU比值由湾内向湾外呈现升高的特征,与叶绿素a具有相反的分布趋势,推测这一现象与湾内陆架区铁的供应要高于湾外深海区有关。本文对营养盐结构与变化的探讨,将有益于进一步深入了解南极普里兹湾各生源要素的循环过程,为预测未来南极浮游群落结构的演变提供依据。     

印度洋-太平洋暖池季节变化及其相应的大气环流形式

首先通过对英国大气科学数据中心海表面温度资料和Levitus随深度变化的海温资料的分析,给出了印度洋-太平洋暖池季节变化的详细描述.另外,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析大气资料中的风场数据,采取将水平风场分量分解为无辐散分量和无旋分量的方法,分析了相应于暖池季节变化的大气环流形式.得到了这样的结论：第一,印度洋-太平洋暖池的位置随季节变化南北移动;暖池面积在北半球的5月和9月达到两个极大值;无论就海表面温度还是深度而言,该暖池分别存在一或两个强度中心.第二,尽管印度洋-太平洋暖池中间被南亚大陆所间隔,但是暖池上空对流层大气运动对于暖池的季节变化却是作为一个整体响应的.     

冻土温度场的参数辨识

从冻土温度场的实际背景、物理现实及温度场的数值计算现状出发,阐述了参数辨识的重要性和必要性.以冬季开放的渠道为例,在原有温度场的基础上,利用参数之间的关系,给出了耦合温度场的数学模型.在此基础上首次建立方程中一些参数的分布控制模型,应用这些参量的连续性与变化的缓慢性,将问题分解,把在无穷维空间的辨识转化为有限维空间的辨识.论述了各子系统的解与参量的关系及优化辨识问题最优解的存在性,即可辨识性.     

一个基于行波解的冻结缘水流模型

在次级冻胀现象中,对处于已冻土和未冻土之间的冻结缘地带,研究其中的水分迁移是一个重要的课题.在已建立的次级冻胀数学模型的基础上,通过假设有行波解的存在,建立了一组新的方程和边界条件,就冰分凝和冻渗两种情况进行了讨论,并以试验数据为例,模拟了开放系统饱水土的入流量历时曲线.     

地基土冻胀的宏观分析

通过野外原位观测发现,在北半球自然气温条件下,地表裸露、原状均质、冻胀性地基土的冻结过程中,冻结速率越大越有利于土的冻胀,即冻结速率与冻胀速率呈单值升函数规律.     

1982-1999年我国陆地植被活动对气候变化响应的季节差异

利用NOAA-AVHRR数据,以归一化植被指数 (NDVI) 作为植被活动的指标,研究中国1982~1999 年四季植被活动的变化,探讨植被活动对全球变化的主要响应方式。结果表明,18年来,中国植被四季平均NDVI均呈上升趋势。春季是中国植被平均NDVI上升趋势最为显著 (P<0.001)、增加速率最快的季节,每年平均增加1.3%;而秋季是NDVI上升趋势最不显著的季节 (P=0.075)。不同植被类型的季节平均NDVI的年变化分析表明,生长季的提前是中国植被对全球变化响应的最主要方式,但这种季节响应方式存在明显的区域性差异。夏季平均NDVI增加速率达到最大的地区主要分布在西北干旱区域和青藏高寒区域,而东部季风区域的植被主要表现为春季NDVI增加速率最大。     

长江河口营养物质输送的组成与通量

1IntroductionRiversplayanimportantroleintransportofnutrients(e.g.,NandP)andtheirbiogeochemicalcyclinginland-oceaninteractionsystem.Forexample,humanactivitieshaveresultedinaboutthesameamountofnitrogenfixation(140×106t)oncontinentsasthatofnaturethroughfertilizerproduction,energyproductionandcultivationofcrops,or30%ofthetotalamounttransportedtooceansbyrivers(Gallowayetal.,1995).Thefluxesofdissolvedphosphorusfromlandtoseasurfacecarriedbyriverrunoffasorthophosphateisabout2TgPyear-1(1Tg=1×1012g)…