Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history,and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods.Dams along the river help to manage flood waters,and are important sources of electricity for the region.Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit.Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services.The teleconnection from El Ni ?no to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Ni ?no in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system.This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin,building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast.A simple forecasting methodology is presented,in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations.Its performance for2016 is discussed.The heavy rainfall in the May–June–July period was correctly forecast well in advance.August saw anomalously low rainfall,and the forecasts for the June–July–August period correctly showed closer to average levels.The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin.Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts,and highlight areas for future improvements.     

Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Surface Air Temperature in Western China by Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5

Variations of surface air temperature(SAT) are key in affecting the hydrological cycle,ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer.This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill and reliability of SAT in western China,using the Glo Sea5 operational forecast system from the UK Met Office.Useful predictions are demonstrated,with considerable skill over most regions of western China.The temporal correlation coefficients of SAT between model predictions and observations are larger than 0.6,in both northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau.There are two important sources of skill for these predictions in western China:interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific and the SST trend in the tropical Pacific.The tropical SST change in the recent two decades,with a warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific,which is reproduced well by the forecast system,provides a large contribution to the skill of SAT in northwestern China.Additionally,the interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific gives rise to the reliable prediction of SAT around the Tibetan Plateau.It modulates convection around the Maritime Continent and further modulates the variation of SAT on the Tibetan Plateau via the surrounding circulation.This process is evident irrespective of detrending both in observations and the model predictions,and acts as a source of skill in predictions for the Tibetan Plateau.The predictability and reliability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for climate services providing early warning of extreme climate events and could imply useful economic benefits.     

Indian Ocean SST modes and Their Impacts as Simulated in BCC_CSM1.1(m) and HadGEM3

The sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) show two dominant modes at interannual time scales,referred to as the Indian Ocean basin mode(IOBM) and dipole mode(IOD).Recent studies have shown that the IOBM and IOD not only affect the local climate,but also induce remarkable influences in East Asia via teleconnections.In this study,we assess simulations of the IOBM and IOD,as well as their teleconnections,using the operational seasonal prediction models from the Met Office(Had GEM3) and Beijing Climate Center [BCC CSM1.1(m)].It is demonstrated that the spatial patterns and seasonal cycles are generally reproduced by the control simulations of BCC CSM1.1(m) and Had GEM3,although spectra biases exist.The relationship between the TIO SSTA and El Nio is successfully simulated by both models,including the persistent IOBM warming following El Nio and the IOD–El Nio interactions.BCC CSM1.1(m) and Had GEM3 are capable of simulating the observed local impact of the IOBM,such as the strengthening of the South Asian high.The influences of the IOBM on Yangtze River rainfall are also captured well by both models,although this teleconnection is slightly weaker in BCC CSM1.1(m) due to the underestimation of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high.The local effect of the IOD on East African rainfall is reproduced by both models.However,the remote control of the IOD on rainfall over southwestern China is not clear in either model.It is shown that the realistic simulations of TIO SST modes and their teleconnections give rise to the source of skillful seasonal predictions over China.     

湖南省近46年雾霾天气时空分布特征分析

挑选出1971～2016年湖南省97个气象站出现大雾和霾的日期,然后对其时间、空间分布特征进行分析,得出以下结论：湖南省大雾天气先升后降再急速上升,霾天气前期稍下降后期迅速上升;雾霾天气均霾天气12月最多,7月最少,季节从多到少以此为冬季、秋季、春季、夏季;大雾天气湘西北、湘西南、湘东北多,湘南少,霾天气湘西北、湘中多,湘南、湘东北少;持续3日及以上雾霾天气过程分别为349次、551次,持续天气最多分别为15天、57天,11月最多,7月最少。     

Seasonal characteristics of chlorophyll fluorescence kinetics of heteromorphic leaves in Populus Euphratica

Populus euphratica Oliver grown in desert areas have polymorphic leaves, which include lanceolate to serrate oval leaves.This paper measures the chlorophyll fluorescence-induction kinetics curves of two types of heteromorphic leaves(lanceolate and serrate oval) of P. euphratica over the growth season in the Ejina Desert area, China. This is in order to study the electron transport, as well as absoprtion, distribtution, and dissipation of light energy and their adaptation characteristics.The results indicate that(1) serrate oval leaves' photosystem II(PSII) initial light-energy-conversion efficiency(Fv/Fm),potential activity(Fv/F_0), and the light-energy-utilization parameter(PI) are higher than those of lanceolate leaves; the accumulated amount of Q_A-(V_j) and the relative speed of Q_A deoxidation(M_0) are lower than those of lanceolate leaves;(2)the reaction center density(RC/CS_0) and electron-transfer energy(ET_0/CS_0) in the unit cross-sectional area of serrate oval leaves are higher than those of lanceolate leaves; the energy consumed in unit cross-sectional area(DI_0/CS_0), and energyflow parameters(ABS/RC, ET_0/RC, TR_0/RC, and DI_0/RC) in the unit reaction center of serrate oval leaves are lower than those of lanceolate leaves;(3) the proportion of energy used for photochemical reaction and energy electron transport in serrate oval leaves(Φ_(P0), Ψ_0, and Φ_(E0)) are larger than those in lanceolate leaves, and the maximum quantum yield(Φ_(D0)) of nonphotochemical reaction is less than that of lanceolate leaves. Thus, serrate oval leaves of P. euphratica have a more efficient energy-distribution strategy and better adaptability to extreme environmental conditions than lanceolate leaves.     

Detecting the origins of moisture over southeast China: Seasonal variation and heavy rainfall

To examine the ability of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT) model to detect the origins and paths of moisture supplied to Southeast China, trajectories of air particles released over Southeast China were traced backward during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 and three typical regional persistent heavy rainfall events. The HYSPLIT model provides more insightful information than water vapor flux. Analysis of the specific humidity along the trajectories revealed the origins of moisture and their contributions to the moisture supply in Southeast China. In the boreal summer half year, four key moisture transport paths from the eastern Indian Ocean, central Indian Ocean, South China Sea(SCS), and western North Pacific(WNP) contribute 10%, 20%, 31%, and 16% of the moisture to Southeast China,respectively. In the winter half year, the contributions of the paths from the WNP and North China double. Examination of heavy rainfall events showed that under tropical storm conditions, all moisture transport routines are rotated cyclonically before reaching Southeast China. The invasion of cold air can trigger heavy rainfall in both the summer and winter half years but plays different roles: it does not contribute to the moisture supply but plays a key role in converging and uplifting the moisture in the summer half year, while it supplies a great amount of moisture in the winter half year as it absorbs abundant moisture in crossing the WNP.     

东海与邻近海域水、热、盐通量的季节变化研究

本文基于高分辨率的区域海洋数值模式对东海及邻近海域进行温、盐、流的数值模拟,模拟结果与实测结果拟合较好。结果表明:东海与邻近海域的水交换过程具有显著的季节变化特征。从流量的角度看,台湾海峡、台湾-西表岛之间水道和西表岛-冲绳岛之间水道是外海水流入东海的3个主要水道,而冲绳岛-奄美大岛、吐噶喇海峡、大隅海峡、济州岛东部和黄东海断面是海水流出东海的水道;其年平均体积输运值分别为1.06×106 m3/s、20.49×106 m3/s、3.20×106 m3/s、-0.92×106 m3/s、-20.59×106 m3/s、-0.30×106 m3/s、-2.37×106 m3/s和-0.37×106 m3/s（向内为正）。对比发现,东海与邻近海域之间各水道的体积、热量和盐量输运均具有相似的季节变化趋势,其最大值往往出现在夏季（7月或8月）,最小值往往出现在冬季（1月或2月）。从7月到11月整个东海是流量净流出的过程,而从12月到翌年6月是流量净流入的过程,全年流量基本上保持平衡状态。东海终年存在向黄海的净输入,其体积、热量和盐量的年平均输运值分别为0.37×106 m3/s,0.027×1015 W和12.7×106 kg/s。     

黄海暖流源区附近温盐结构及其季节变化

为探究不同季节下黄海暖流在源区的状态,利用韩国海洋数据中心(Korea Oceanographic Data Center)发布的水文数据,对黄海暖流源区附近温盐结构及其季节变化进行了分析。结果表明:年平均状态下对马暖流在济州岛东南存在向西向入侵的趋势,其入侵存在明显的季节变化:秋季最强,冬、春季开始减弱,夏季最弱。济州岛西侧,约在33°30′N、125°30′E处存在一支伸向西北的高盐舌,该高盐舌盐度同样具有明显的季节变化:冬季最强,春季开始减弱,夏季降至最低,秋季盐度开始缓慢回升。黄海区盐度的变化要滞后于对马暖流区盐度变化。冬季朝鲜沿岸水南下入侵程度最强,能到达34°N以南的位置。     

渤海海峡悬浮体分布、通量及其季节变化

渤海海峡是渤黄海物质交换的重要通道,同时也是黄河入海泥沙向黄海搬运的必经路径。本文以2006—2009年渤海海峡8个站位四个季节的悬浮体、CTD数据为基础,将标准层悬浮体浓度数据与浊度数据对比获得高垂直分辨率的悬浮体浓度数据,分析其季节变化特征,并结合日均风场驱动的高精度数值模型模拟的渤海海峡流场,计算了四个季节渤海海峡悬浮体通量。结果表明,北黄海冷水团的入侵和退缩是渤海海峡温盐及其季节变化的重要特征之一,四季节流场特征均为"北进南出";渤海海峡中上层悬浮体浓度分布为海峡南部浓度高、北部浓度低,夏季海峡北部下层北黄海冷水团控制海域悬浮体浓度高于周围水体。春季、夏季、秋季、冬季悬浮体浓度依次增高。观测期间渤海海峡悬浮体的年净通量约为251.63万吨,其中输往黄海方向的悬浮体通量约占黄河年平均输沙量的4.27%。     

北黄海獐子岛邻近海域大型底栖动物群落结构和季节变化

本文以2009年8月-2010年6月在北黄海獐子岛海域4个季度航次调查的大型底栖动物资料为基础,分析了该海域大型底栖动物群落的结构和季节变化。结果表明,4个航次共采集了211种底栖动物,调查海域主要优势种为薄索足蛤(Thyasira tokunagai)、斑角吻沙蚕(Goniada maculata)、紫蛇尾(Ophiopholis mirabilis)、博氏双眼钩虾(Ampelisca bocki)和短角双眼钩虾(Ampelisca brevicornis),各季节的优势种组成有明显变化;运用聚类分析和MDS研究了其群落结构,将该区域大型底栖动物分为3个群落,即,群落I--位于调查区北部的美原双眼钩虾(Ampelisca miharaensis)-短角双眼钩虾(Ampelisca brevicornis)-斑角吻沙蚕群落,群落II--位于獐子岛邻近的紫蛇尾(Ophiopholis mirabilis)-日本倍棘蛇尾群落(Amphioplus japonicus),群落III--位于南部区域的薄索足蛤-浅水萨氏真蛇尾(Ophiura sarsii vadicola)群落,各群落有一定的季节变化;运用ABC曲线分析了4个季节群落受扰动情况,表明该海域环境良好,受扰动较小,夏季受扰动略大于其它季节。