Changes in streamflow regime following vegetation changes from paired catchments

Vegetation changes can significantly affect catchment water balance. It is important to evaluate the effects of vegetation cover change on streamflow as changes in streamflow relate to water security. This study focuses on the use of statistical methods to determine responses in streamflow at seven paired catchments in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa to vegetation change. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt's test were used to identify trends and change points in the annual streamflow records. Statistically significant trends in annual streamflow were detected for most of the treated catchments. It took between 3 and 10 years for a change in vegetation cover to result in significant change in annual streamflow. Presence of the change points in streamflow was associated with changes in the mean, variance, and distribution of annual streamflow. The streamflow in the deforestation catchments increased after the change points, whereas reduction in streamflow was observed in the afforestation catchments. The streamflow response is mainly affected by the climate and underlying vegetation change. Daily flow duration curves (FDCs) for the whole period and pre‐change and post‐change point periods also were analysed to investigate the changes in flow regime. Three types of vegetation change effects on the flow regime have been identified. The relative reductions in most percentile flows are constant in the afforestation catchments. The comparison of trend, change point, and FDC in the annual streamflow from the paired experiments reflects the important role of the vegetation change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An enhanced constitutive model for crushable granular materials

Studies in the past have tried to reproduce the mechanical behaviour of granular materials by proposing constitutive relations based on a common assumption that model parameters and parameters describing the properties, including gradation of individual grains are inevitably linked. However successful these models have proved to be, they cannot account for the changes in granular assembly behaviour if the grains start to break during mechanical loading. This paper proposes to analyse the relation between grading change and the mechanical behaviour of granular assembly. A way to model the influence of grain breakage is to use a critical state‐based model. The influence of the amount of grain breakage during loading, depending on the individual grain strength and size distribution, can be introduced into constitutive relations by means of a new parameter that controls the evolution of critical state with changes in grain size distribution. Experimental data from a calcareous sand, a quartz sand, and a rockfill material were compared with numerical results and good‐quality simulations were obtained. The main consequences of grain breakage are increased compressibility and a gradual dilatancy disappearance in the granular material. The critical state concept is also enriched by considering its overall relation to the evolution of the granular material. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China

Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km²) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Atoll island vulnerability to flooding and inundation revealed by historical reconstruction: Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

The reef islands formed on coral atolls are generally small, low, and flat, with elevations of only a few meters. These islands are thus highly vulnerable to elevated sea levels caused by extreme events and global warming. Such vulnerability was recently evidenced at Fongafale Islet, the capital of Tuvalu, when it flooded during accelerated spring high tides possibly related to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many factors, not only environmental but also economic and social, determine the vulnerability of an island to sea level rise. In this study, we used data spanning 108 yrs to reconstruct changes in topography, land use/cover, population, and the distribution of buildings at Fongafale Islet. The results indicate that the vulnerability of Fongafale Islet relates to its original landform characteristics: the central part of the island was formerly dominated by swampland that flooded at high tides. Fongafale Islet experienced greater population in-migration and centralization beginning in the 1970s following the independence of Tuvalu and Kiribati. Migrants were also responding to declines in overseas mining operations and limited options for paid employment. As the population increased, construction took place in vulnerable swampland areas. Our results clearly demonstrate that examinations of global environmental issues should focus on characteristics specific to the region of interest. These characteristics should be specified using historical reconstruction to understand and address the vulnerability of an area to global environmental changes.     

Long‐term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin*

Some previous studies have shown that drying‐up of the lower Yellow River resulted from decreasing precipitation and excessive industrial and agricultural consumption of water from the middle and downstream regions of the Yellow River. On the basis of average air temperature, precipitation, and pan evaporation data from nearly 80 gauging stations in the Yellow River basin, the monotonic trends of major climate variables over the past several decades are analysed. The analysis was mainly made for 12 months and the annual means. The isograms for annual and typical months are given in the paper. The result shows that the average temperature in the study area exhibits an increasing trend, mainly because of the increase of temperature in December, January and February. The largest trend is shown in December and the smallest is in August. There are 65 of 77 stations exhibiting a downward trend for annual precipitation. In all seasons except summer, there is a similar trend in the upstream region of the Yellow River, south of latitude 35°N. It is interesting to note that the pan evaporation has decreased in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the past several decades. April and July showed the greatest magnitude of slope, and the area from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou as well as the Yiluo River basin exhibited the strongest declining trend. The conclusion is that the decreasing pan evaporation results from complex changes of air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, and both climate change and human activities have affected the flow regime of the Yellow River during the past several decades. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rhomboidal versus triangular spherical harmonic truncation: Some verification statistics

Abstract

In the construction of global primitive equation models, based on the spherical harmonic method, two forms of truncation are in general use. Theoretical considerations suggest the triangular truncation method is superior, but the easily coded rhomboidal truncation is more commonly used. A verification experiment employing the Canadian Operational Spectral Model has been performed to determine if the theoretical superiority of the triangular truncation can be realized in practice. It was found that at least in the restricted case of extra‐tropical forecasts of less than 48 h, that the two truncation methods produced forecasts of equivalent accuracy.     

Two paleoecological histories spanning the period of human settlement in southeastern Brazil

The absence of human occupation sites in southeastern Brazil during the mid Holocene has been referred to as the 'Archaic Gap' (8970–1940 cal. a BP) and is predicted to have resulted from increased aridity. A ca. 14 000 cal. a pollen history from two well‐dated lake sediment cores located within the archeological district of Lagoa Santa, in the State of Minas Gerais, southeastern Brazil, was used to test this hypothesis. Our analyses indicated that the present cerrado and tropical semi‐deciduous forest mosaic persisted throughout the mid Holocene, until ca. 5500 cal. a BP, and the Lagoa Santa region did not experience especially dry conditions during the Holocene period. The early Holocene pollen spectra contained an assemblage of cold‐adapted taxa such as Podocarpus, Myrsine and Araucaria, co‐occurring with taxa from cerrado, e.g. Caryocar. A replacement of cold taxa by the modern cerrado–semi‐deciduous forest vegetation took place progressively, but appears to have been completed by the mid Holocene. No evidence of sustained drought was found in sedimentation or forest composition, nor any prolonged dry event in the study region. Holocene dryness as an explanation for the abandonment of Lagoa Santa region is not supported by the palynological analyses conducted in this study. Rather it is suggested that unpredictable climate may have underlain that abandonment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assess hydrological responses to a warming climate at the Lysina Critical Zone Observatory in Central Europe

Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate.     

Permafrost‐thaw‐induced land‐cover change in the Canadian subarctic: implications for water resources

Climate warming and human disturbance in north‐western Canada have been accompanied by degradation of permafrost, which introduces considerable uncertainty to the future availability of northern freshwater resources. This study demonstrates the rate and spatial pattern of permafrost loss in a region that typifies the southern boundary of permafrost. Remote‐sensing analysis of a 1·0 km² area indicates that permafrost occupied 0·70 km² in 1947 and decreased with time to 0·43 km² by 2008. Ground‐based measurements demonstrate the importance of horizontal heat flows in thawing discontinuous permafrost, and show that such thaw produces dramatic land‐cover changes that can alter basin runoff production in this region. A major challenge to northern water resources management in the twenty‐first century therefore lies in predicting stream flows dynamically in the context of widely occurring permafrost thaw. The need for appropriate water resource planning, mitigation, and adaptation strategies is explained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.