A review of the climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf hurricanes for wind, wave, and surge hazard estimation

The climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are presented, focusing on the basic parameters needed for accurately determining the structure and intensity of hurricanes for ocean response models. These include the maximum sustained wind, radius of maximum winds, the Holland-B parameter, the peripheral or far-field pressure, the surface roughness and coefficient of drag, and the central pressure for historical hurricanes in the Gulf.Despite evidence of a slight increase in the annual number of named storms over the past 50 years, presently there is no statistically significant trend in tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the long-term variability of tropical cyclones in the Gulf reflects the observed variability in the Atlantic basin as a whole. Analyses of hurricane winds from multiple sources suggest the presence of a bias toward overestimating the strength of winds in the HURDAT dataset from 7% to 15%. Results presented comparing HURDAT with other sources also show an overestimation of intensity at landfall, with an estimated bias of ~10%.Finally, a review of recent studies has shown that hurricane frequencies and intensities appear to vary on a much more localized scale than previously believed. This exacerbates the sampling problem for accurate characterization of hurricane parameters for design and operational applications.     

Precession and nutation in the η Carinae binary system: evidence from the X-ray light curve

It is believed that η Carinae is actually a massive binary system, with the wind–wind interaction responsible for the strong X-ray emission. Although the overall shape of the X-ray light curve can be explained by the high eccentricity of the binary orbit, other features like the asymmetry near periastron passage and the short quasi-periodic oscillations seen at those epochs have not yet been accounted for. In this paper we explain these features assuming that the rotation axis of η Carinae is not perpendicular to the orbital plane of the binary system. As a consequence, the companion star will face η Carinae on the orbital plane at different latitudes for different orbital phases and, since both the mass-loss rate and the wind velocity are latitude dependent, they would produce the observed asymmetries in the X-ray flux. We were able to reproduce the main features of the X-ray light curve assuming that the rotation axis of η Carinae forms an angle of  29°± 4°  with the axis of the binary orbit. We also explained the short quasi-periodic oscillations by assuming nutation of the rotation axis, with an amplitude of about  5°  and a period of about 22 days. The nutation parameters, as well as the precession of the apsis, with a period of about 274 years, are consistent with what is expected from the torques induced by the companion star.     

环加速间隙下的脉冲星星风制动模型

为了解释间歇脉冲星PSR B1931+24在射电噪比射电宁静状态下更大的自转减慢率和模拟蟹状星云脉冲星的自转演化,建立同时考虑了具有不同加速电势的核区和环区的环加速间隙下的星风制动模型.其中对于PSR B1931+24通过计算得到它的磁场强度和磁倾角,并且预言了其理论制动指数.对于蟹状星云脉冲星,通过计算得到它的磁场强度和磁倾角,还计算得到其制动指数随周期的演化和它在周期-周期导数图上的自转演化.相比于真空加速间隙、外加速间隙等,环加速间隙也同样能够适用于星风制动模型.     

SeaWinds散射计海面风场的几何反演算法

基于SeaWinds散射计雷达后向散射截面积随风速和相对方位角的变化规律, 从信息图谱几何形态特征出发, 提出了一种新的海面风场反演方法。它不同于传统的依据最小概率误差的遍历搜索算法, 反演时不依赖方差, 仅从信息图谱几何形态特征就可以反演风矢量。实验共用了218623条数据(即218623个风元)。实验结果表明, 与对应的美国NASA反演数据(L2B)对比, 风速平均相对偏差为7.4%, 风向平均偏差为9.5°。     

一种海面风场反演的快速风矢量搜索算法

本文以SeaWinds散射计为例，从最大似然估计的海面风场反演方法出发，根据其目标函数的一般分布特征，提出并实现了一种快速风矢量搜索算法。然后采用美国SeaWinds散射计的部分LA实测数据对该搜索算法进行了验证，并与常规算法对同一实验数据的反演偏差及运行时间进行了对比分析，结果表明该算法在能够保证反演精度的前提下，在较大程度上提高了运行效率。     

Dynamical Climatology of the Upper Mesosphere, Lower Thermosphere and Ionosphere

The main features of upper atmosphere dynamics as an important part of upper atmosphere climatology are presented. The dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) are of special interest. The results are based on the long series of investigations in East Siberia and data from a world-wide network of observatories. We present the regional climatic norms for the prevailing wind and semi-diurnal tide and the main features of the quasi-periodic structure of the wind field. The non-zonality of MLT dynamics is demonstrated as well as regional differences in the response of the wind field to stratospheric disturbances, solar activity variations and geomagnetic storms.     

Air flow analysis in the upper Río Negro Valley (Argentina)

The so called Upper Río Negro Valley in Argentina is one of the most important fruit and vegetable production regions of the country. It comprises the lower valleys of the Limay and Neuquén rivers and the upper Negro river valley. Out of the 41,671 cultivated hectares, 84.6% are cultivated with fruit trees, especially apple, pear and stone fruit trees. Late frosts occurring when trees are sensitive to low temperatures have a significant impact on the regional production. This study presents an analysis of air flow characteristics in the Upper Río Negro Valley and its relationship with ambient air flow. To such effect, observations made when synoptic-scale weather patterns were favorable for radiative frosts (light wind and clear sky) or nocturnal temperature inversion in the lower layer were used. In the Negro river valley, both wind channeling and downward horizontal momentum transport from ambient wind were observed; in nighttime, very light wind events occurred, possibly associated with drainage winds from the nearby higher levels of the barda. In the Neuquén river valley, the prevailing effect appeared to be forced channeling, consistent with the results obtained in valleys where the synoptic scale wind crossed the axis of the valley. In the Limay river valley, the flow was observed to blow parallel to the longitudinal valley axis, possibly influenced by pressure gradient and forced channeling.     

用ERS风散射计数据估算土壤水分方法的研究

欧空局ERS1/2卫星上的风散射计(WSC),分辨率是50km,4天内能覆盖全球超过80%的范围,并可在多角度下对地物目标进行观测。本文研究利用该散射计数据估算土壤水分的方法。首先,利用基于ERS散射计数据建立的全球C波段雷达后向散射系数数据库,根据传统的几何光学模型(GOM),反演得到与土壤含水量密切相关的法线方向Fresnel反射率,并与两个采样点(安多和那曲)上的实测降雨量及土壤水分相对比,证明了ERS散射计数据与土壤水分的高相关性;第二步,以水云模型为基础,结合AIEM模型,发展了一种简化模型来估算土壤水分绝对值,分别利用气象站实测点数据和同时期的Basist湿度指数(BWI)进行验证,表明反演结果能较好反映土壤水分的空间分布状况。     

Parameterisation of the Planetary Boundary Layer for Diagnostic Wind Models

The planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization is a key issue for the definition of initial wind flow fields in diagnostic models. However, PBL theories usually treat separately stable, neutral, and convective stability conditions, so that their implementation in diagnostic wind models is not straightforward. In the present paper, an attempt is made to adopt a comprehensive PBL parameterisation, covering stable/neutral and unstable atmospheric conditions, which appears suitable to diagnostic models. This parameterisation is implemented into our diagnostic mass-consistent code. A validation of the consistency between the implemented PBL parameterisations has been checked through an analysis of the sensitivity of the vertical wind profiles to atmospheric stability.