Trends in frequency of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin,China: 1960–2003 / Tendances d'évolution de la fréquence des précipitations extrêmes entre 1960 et 2003 dans le bassin versant du Fleuve Yangtze (Chine)

Abstract

The spatial distribution and trends in the frequency of precipitation extremes over the last 44 years (1960–2003), especially since 1990, have been analysed using daily precipitation data from 147 stations in the Yangtze River basin. The research results are as follows: (1) The 15 mm precipitation isohyet approximately divides the precipitation extremes (corresponding to the 95th percentile) of the stations in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches (higher) from those of the upper Yangtze reaches (lower). Also the starting time of the precipitation extremes in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches is earlier than of those in the upper Yangtze reaches. Precipitation extremes are concentrated mostly in June in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches, and July in the upper Yangtze reaches. (2) During the period 1960–2003, the first two decades had fewer precipitation extremes than the last two decades. There have been significant increasing trends and step changes in frequency of annual total precipitation extremes and precipitation extremes with a 1–5 day gap in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches. Precipitation extremes occur more frequently in shorter periods, separated by a few days. Precipitation extremes are also becoming more concentrated in the month with the highest frequency of extremes (June) in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches. In the upper Yangtze reaches, there is an upward tendency of extreme events in June. Increasing precipitation extremes in June for both the middle and lower, and the upper Yangtze reaches will increase the probability of flooding if the observed trends of the last 40 years continue into the future.     

Hilbert-Huang变换与地震信号的时频分析

本文介绍了HHT时频分析方法及瞬时频率的概念，给出了已知信号的经验模态分解及其时频分布，并对实际地震波形信号进行了HHT时频处理与剖析。结果表明，HHT方法能准确描述地震波形信号的非线性时变特征，是地震信号时频分析的有效工具。     

常压酸溶-电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定地球化学勘查样品中的铌钽

常压酸溶法因溶矿效率高、成本低、检出限低,在地质实验室被广泛应用,但采用常用的氢氟酸-硝酸-盐酸-高氯酸四酸法处理样品,铌钽溶出率低,铌钽在容器壁发生水解和聚合反应导致其部分吸附或沉降,从而使测试结果偏低。因此,应用常压酸溶-电感耦合等离子体质谱(ICP-MS)分析地球化学勘查样品中的铌钽,需要解决的两个关键问题是铌钽的溶出率和试液中铌钽的水解。针对溶出率的不足,本方法在酸体系中引入硫酸,即氢氟酸-硝酸-盐酸-高氯酸-硫酸可以完全将铌钽溶出;针对水解,采用5%氢氟酸-5%硫酸-5%过氧化氢为提取剂,并采取与样品前处理相同分析流程的标准物质制作曲线,这两个方法相结合能有效抑制样品溶液中铌钽的水解,同时标准物质制作曲线法降低了ICP-MS分析中的样品溶液与标准溶液基体不一致引起的误差。本方法经国家标准物质验证,相对误差小于±7%,相对标准偏差在3.11%~6.27%之间(n=11),铌钽的检出限分别为0.04μg/g和0.03μg/g,相比于碱熔法检出限0.33μg/g具有明显优势,可以准确测定地球化学勘查样品中的铌钽。     

珠江黄埔大桥模态频率连续监测中的温度影响Ⅰ:频率识别

为研究环境温度对珠江黄埔大桥频率监测的影响,首先要对大桥模态频率进行连续识别。珠江黄埔大桥上架设的监测系统为强震动台阵,相较于其他健康监测系统测点较少,因此,应基于强震动台阵系统的特点,选取合适的方法对大桥频率进行识别。本文通过对比分析平均正则化功率谱法(ANPSD)、频域分解法(FDD)和协方差驱动的随机子空间法(Cov-SSI)的识别结果,择优应用于珠江黄埔大桥的频率自动识别中。采用珠江黄埔大桥强震动台阵记录的2013年4月至11月加速度响应数据进行频率识别,识别结果可用于观测和研究大桥频率在环境影响下的波动情况。     

分级循环荷载下低温冻结盐渍土动强度特性试验研究

为了探究寒区路基盐渍土在交通荷载作用下的强度破坏机理,采用室内GDS动三轴试验系统,对天然重塑盐渍土进行了不同冻结温度、围压及振动频率下一系列动荷载试验,从破坏动应力、动黏聚力和动内摩擦角方面分析各试验条件对盐渍土的影响机制。结果表明：冻结温度和围压对破坏动强度影响明显,动载频率对破坏动强度影响较弱;随着温度的降低,破坏动应力和动黏聚力明显增大,而动内摩擦角有先增大后减小趋势;随着动荷载频率的增大,破坏动应力和动黏聚力变化不明显,但内摩擦角有减小趋势;围压与破坏应力呈线性相关,温度分别与破坏动应力、动黏聚力呈良好指数关系。     

51a新疆雹灾损失的时空分布特征

用新疆1952-2002 a的900例雹灾资料,对雹灾发生频次、受灾面积、经济损失的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明,新疆雹灾频次、受灾面积、经济损失从20世纪70年代开始增长较快,受灾面积、频次1990年达到最大,可比经济损失最大值出现在1995年。雹灾主要集中在4～9月,雹灾发生频次6月最多,受灾面积5月份最多,可比经济损失值以7月份最大。按灰色关联灾情评估模型可将新疆分为严重雹灾区、重雹灾区、中雹灾区、轻雹灾区和微雹灾区五个区域。其中:阿克苏为雹灾重点防御地区,喀什、塔城、伊犁、博州、石河子为次重点防御地区。     

江苏中部海岸全新世中期温暖期风暴潮频率的研究

通过对采集于江苏省盐城市上冈镇的三个柱状沉积剖面(W,M,E)的岩性特征及其对比关系的分析、沉积物14C年代的测定以及沉积物样品的粒度、磁化率特征的分析,结合有孔虫和颗石藻的分析结果,判定研究沉积层段为全新世中期的潮滩沉积.孢粉分析结果显示当时的气候较现在温暖.以潮汐层理的周期性特征为依据,对以泥为主的潮滩沉积剖面中每隔10~20cm有规律出现的一层砂作了分析,结果表明这一沉积特征为季节性的潮滩沉积旋回.在此基础上,观察沉积剖面中的风暴潮事件的记录状况,估算出剖面中记录的与9711号台风风暴潮强度相当的风暴潮的发生频率为二至四年一遇,而依据盐城市东台梁垛河闸多年的现代最高潮位资料,应用耿贝尔(Gum-bel)曲线拟合法计算出的9711号台风所引起的风暴潮频率为十二年一遇,即全新世中期温暖期的台风风暴潮的频率比现在大.据此推测全球变暖后台风风暴潮的频率将会增加.     

Three-dimensional semi-analytical solution to groundwater flow in confined and unconfined wedge-shaped aquifers

The Laplace domain solutions have been obtained for three-dimensional groundwater flow to a well in confined and unconfined wedge-shaped aquifers. The solutions take into account partial penetration effects, instantaneous drainage or delayed yield, vertical anisotropy and the water table boundary condition. As a basis, the Laplace domain solutions for drawdown created by a point source in uniform, anisotropic confined and unconfined wedge-shaped aquifers are first derived. Then, by the principle of superposition the point source solutions are extended to the cases of partially and fully penetrating wells. Unlike the previous solution for the confined aquifer that contains improper integrals arising from the Hankel transform [Yeh HD, Chang YC. New analytical solutions for groundwater flow in wedge-shaped aquifers with various topographic boundary conditions. Adv Water Resour 2006;26:471–80], numerical evaluation of our solution is relatively easy using well known numerical Laplace inversion methods. The effects of wedge angle, pumping well location and observation point location on drawdown and the effects of partial penetration, screen location and delay index on the wedge boundary hydraulic gradient in unconfined aquifers have also been investigated. The results are presented in the form of dimensionless drawdown-time and boundary gradient-time type curves. The curves are useful for parameter identification, calculation of stream depletion rates and the assessment of water budgets in river basins.     

近地裂缝处层状场地自振频率的剪切梁法初探

为了探究近地裂缝处场地自振频率的计算方法,本文在传统剪切梁法的基础上假设地裂缝上下盘水平位移连续,推倒了地裂缝上下盘处单层及任意多层场地自振频率的递推公式和隐式解答,并且与正常场地剪切梁法结果进行了对比。结果显示：近地裂缝处上盘场地基频比正常场地偏低、下盘场地基频则偏高,并且随着计算范围的扩大上下盘场地的基频越来越接近正常场地解。另外,随着自振频率阶数的提高,本文解也逐渐接近正常场地解。上述结论表明,本文得出的近地裂缝处场地自振频率的隐式解答还是比较合理的。