多部多普勒雷达同步探测三维风场反演系统

“我国重大气候和天气灾害的形成机理与预测理论研究”项目首次启用双多普勒雷达组网同步观测，如何从同步观测的暴雨资料中反演三维场，具有重要的理论和现实意义，根据项目需要，建立了国内首套多部多普勒天气雷达同步探测三维风场反演软件系统，并反演出2001年7月13日由双多普勒雷达同步观测到的一个中β尺度暴雨系统的三维风场，结果显示，该三维风场结构合理，系统能满足外场试验的要求。     

回溯时间积分格式的有效性研究

采月正压准地转模式作为动力核,用Rossby-Haurwitz波函数作为理想场,同时使用回溯时间积分格式和普通中央差格式进行数值试验.结果表明,在短时积分的情况下,回溯格式能减小数值解误差1～2个量级,而且它对时间步长的增大不敏感.因此使用回溯格式可以减少积分计算量,延长积分时效.     

烟台海域海难事故气象条件分析及预防对策

通过对1990－1999年烟台辖区海域海难事故资料及烟台海区相关气象资料统计分析，得出烟台沿海及附近海域难事故发生的一般规律及其与气象的关系，并提出了海难事故的预防对策。     

阿勒泰夏季大降水过程中高潜能场的时空变化特征分析

以大降水过程中触发高潜能量释放的天气系统为背景条件，以高潜能场为起报信息，对40个大降水个例进行统计、分析和归纳，概括出阿勒泰夏季大降水过程中，高潜能场的时空变化特征，从中得出预报阿勒泰夏季大降水的新指标，进一步提高了大降水预报的准确率。     

铁路沿线灾害性天气监测、预测、预警系统

针对铁路三防（防风，防沙，防洪）的需要，结合大风监测系统建设的实际，对恶劣天气气候条件下，如何保障列车运行安全进行了探讨，并提出铁路沿线灾害性天气监测，预测，预警系统。     

The 12–13 November 1999 flash flood in southern France

The flash flood that occurred on 12–13 November 1999 in meridional France is documented. This event caused 35 fatalities and severe damage to property as rainfall totals locally exceeded 550 mm in 24 h and 620 mm in 48 h.The main issue of the present study is to discuss how realistically the spatial and temporal rainfall distribution of this flash flood event can be represented with present state-of-the-art operational and research modeling frameworks. The predictability of the present event for different forecast ranges is investigated and sensitivity studies are conducted in order to discuss the influence of model physics (convection, microphysics), atmospheric moisture analysis and Mediterranean sea surface temperature forcing on the quality of the results. It is shown that the present event could be reasonably predicted on forecast ranges of 2–3 days as it was essentially determined by strong moisture advection from the Mediterranean coupled with frontal and orographical lifting. However, precipitation scores show significant sensitivity to both analysis errors and model physics.     

The June 4th 1999 severe weather episode in San Quirino, Italy: a tornado event?

On the morning of June 4th 1999, a severe weather event took place in San Quirino, a small village of Friuli-Venezia Giulia in the northeast of Italy. This village is located near the piedmont of the Alps, 40 km west from Udine and 60 km north from Venice.Around 0900 UTC (1100 local time), a thunderstorm with an intense hail fall affected the area of San Quirino. A few minutes later (around 0920 UTC, source: a farmer), a funnel cloud from a cumulonimbus touched the ground, producing damages to houses, trees and sheds. The damaged area was quite narrow (about 300 m) and short (less than 10 km). No injuries to people were reported.In spite of the smallness of the area interested by the phenomenon, this storm is studied here starting from the synoptic scale, moving to the mesoscale and finishing with the storm scale, trying to underline its characteristics. These analyses, especially those coming from the Doppler radar images, bring us to the conclusion that the San Quirino episode was produced by a supercell storm.     

黑龙江省冰雹天气气候特征及防雹预警指标

以统计的近40年冰雹资料为基础，分析了黑龙江省冰雹天气分布规律及近年冰雹气候特征的变化。利用天气系统背景、卫星云图、不稳定因子以及雷达回波等指标，为人工防雹天气时机选择和作业方案设计提供了综合预警指标，为省级防雹预警系统提供了新的更接近实况的科学预警依据。     

南京地区中暑天气条件指数研究预报

本文采用南京地区1988－1997年每年夏季逐日各项气象要素及全市各医院同期重症中暑人数进行统计筛选出热夏年：1988年、1994年、1995年，对这三年中暑期重症中暑病例资料与气象资料进行相关统计分析，找出相关性较好的气象因子，经过方程化筛选，得出气温、湿度、气压、对中暑影响较大。三日滑动平均值为主要预报因子。设计中暑指数数学模式。根据中暑病病理、程度将中暑天气条件分三个等级，给出三个不同的中暑天气条件指数临界值，经过1998年、1999年试报验证，准确率较高，社会效益较好。该指数预测模式基本可行。     

Sand-dust storms in China: temporal-spatial distribution and tracks of source lands

1 IntroductionSand-dust storms include both sand storms and dust storms[1]. When the visibility in local areas is greater than or equal to 50 m but less than 200 m, they are called severe sand-dust storms. When extremely severe sand-dust storm, the most severest type of sand-dust storm, occurs, the local instantaneous maximum wind speed can be greater than 25 m/s and a local visibility be less than 50 m or even descend to 0 m[2].Sand-dust storm is a critical environmental problem and is also a…