边界层辐合线在局地强风暴临近预警中的应用

利用济南CINRAD/SA雷达探测到的边界层辐合信息,结合地面实况和探空资料及NCEP资料,对近年发生在山东中部的典型局地强风暴的生成及对流参数进行了分析.结果表明:高时空分辨率的雷达能获得近地层辐合线信息,对流风暴强的出流和近地层环境风的辐合在一定条件下可产生窄带回波;远离风暴主体的出流边界和顺地面风移动的风速辐合线在热力条件较弱的情况下一般不会产生对流天气;出流边界的叠加或出流边界与环境风辐合线的叠加在有利的环境条件下可产生局地强风暴,单纯的近地层辐合线在有利的环境条件下可产生较为孤立的局地风暴,可作为强对流天气临近预警的关键参考依据;风暴初始位置、初始时间和风暴类型具有不确定性,是强对流天气临近预警的难点.     

Evaluation of TMPA satellite-based research and real-time rainfall estimates during six tropical-related heavy rainfall events over Louisiana, USA

This study focuses on the evaluation of 3-hourly 0.25° × 0.25° satellite-based rainfall estimates produced by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). The evaluation is performed during six heavy rainfall events that were generated by tropical storms passing over Louisiana, United States. Two surface-based rainfall datasets from gauge and radar observations are used as a ground reference for evaluating the real-time (RT) version of the TMPA product and the post-real-time bias adjusted research version. The evaluation analysis is performed at the native temporal and spatial scales of the TMPA products, 3-hourly and 0.25° × 0.25°. Several graphical and statistical techniques are applied to characterize the deviation of the TMPA estimates from the reference datasets. Both versions of the TMPA products track reasonably well the temporal evolution and fluctuations of surface rainfall during the analyzed storms with moderate to high correlation values of 0.5–0.8. The TMPA estimates reported reasonable levels of rainfall detection especially when light rainfall rates are excluded. On a storm scale, the TMPA products are characterized by varying degrees of bias which was mostly within ± 25% and ± 50% for the research and RT products, respectively. Analysis of the error distribution indicated that, on average, the TMPA products tend to overestimate small rain rates and underestimate large rain rates. Compared to the real-time estimates, the research product shows significant improvement in the overall and conditional bias, and in the correlation coefficients, with slight deterioration in the probability of detecting rainfall occurrences. A fair agreement in terms of reproducing the tail of the distribution of rain rates (i.e., probability of surface rainfall exceeding certain thresholds) was observed especially for the RT estimates. Despite the apparent differences with surface rainfall estimates, the results reported in this study highlight the TMPA potential as a valuable resource of high-resolution rainfall information over many areas in the world that lack capabilities for monitoring landfalling tropical storms.     

北京两次重污染沙尘天气成因及动力传输特征的对比研究

应用气象、空气质量和ERA-Interim再分析资料,结合HYSPLIT后向轨迹模型和地理信息,对比分析了2018年北京两次重污染沙尘天气的成因、传输特征及影响要素等。结果表明:两次过程的沙尘源地均为蒙古国,但3月28日沙尘天气由蒙古气旋引发,传输出现折向,以东北和偏东两条路径输送入京,5月28日沙尘受低涡和发展的低压冷锋影响,为典型的西北传输路径;高空的引导气流与低层冷空气的强度以及地形是导致沙尘传输出现显著差异的主要影响因素;高空为偏西气流,低层冷平流较弱,受到山脉的阻挡,沙尘气团东移至地势较低的区域后,在气压梯度力的驱动下传输方向发生转折,以偏东路径绕流进入北京;高空的偏北气流和低层冷平流较强,沙尘气团可直接翻越山脉从西北路径入京,沙尘粒子的运移高度相对较高。     

Period characteristics of Pc1 pulsations observed at Ottawa

IMS data from Ottawa, Canada are analyzed to study the propagation characteristics of Pc1 pulsations. The majority of pulsations observed possessed periods of 1 second and lasted less than an hour. Shorter-period Pc1s are observed during the summer than during the winter. Periods of pulsations are also shorter during the noon hours than in the morning, and shorter during intervals of high magnetic activity. The diurnal variation of period at Ottawa is different from that at high-latitude stations. For Pc1s the calculated ratio of the spacing period to the pulse period at Ottawa is 86, in good agreement with values found for both higher- and lower-latitude stations. An IPDP (intervals of pulsations of diminishing periods) event occurred on April 19, 1977. The analysis supports the view that the energy dispersion of storm time protons, as well as the earthward movement of the instability region due to increasing magnetic activity, are involved in the production of such events. Earth Physics Branch Contribution No. 1087.     

Longitudinal (UT) effect in the onset of auroral disturbances over two solar cycles as deduced from the AE-index

Statistical study on the universal time variations in the mean hourly auroral electrojet index (AE-index) has been undertaken for a 21 y period over two solar cycles (1957–1968 and 1978–1986). The analysis, applied to isolated auroral substorm onsets (inferred from rapid variations in the AE-index) and to the bulk of the AE data, indicates that the maximum in auroral activity is largely confined to 09–18 UT, with a distinct minimum at 03–06 UT. The diurnal effect was clearly present throughout all seasons in the first cycle but was mainly limited to northern winter in the second cycle. Severe storms (AE > 1000 nT) tended to occur between 9–18 UT irrespective of the seasons whereas all larger magnetic disturbances (AE > 500 nT) tended to occur in this time interval mostly in winter. On the whole the diurnal trend was strong in winter, intermediate at equinox and weak in summer. The implication of this study is that Eastern Siberia, Japan and Australia are mostly at night, during the period of maximum auroral activity whereas Europe and Eastern America are then mostly at daytime. The minimum of auroral activity coincides with near-midnight conditions in Eastern America. It appears that the diurnal UT distribution in the AE-index reflects a diurnal change between interplanetary magnetic field orientation and the Earths magnetic dipole inclination.     

Characteristics of geomagnetic storm spectra in middle and low latitude regions and their relation with the tangshan earthquake

The characteristics of 80 geomagnetic storm spectra have been analyzed and compared for the records at seven observatories: Beijing, Qingguang, Changli, Guangzhou, Sheshan, Wuchang and Changchun during 1973–1977. The general natures of the spectra are thus obtained. The results are as follows. First, there are synchronous trends of change in the magnetic storm spectral amplitude at the seven observatories. Second, the sepctral slopes of all the magnetic storms are almost the same. The yearly average values of the spectral slopeb are quite steady within the period range from 0.5 to 6.8 hours. This means that the magnetic storms have the same energy partitioning factor. Third, there are significant changes in the yearly average values of spectral interceptsa for the three observatories of Beijing, Qingguang and Changli which are near the Tangshan earthquake area, but the values are quite steady for the four observatories of Guangzhou, Sheshan, Wuchang and Changchun which are far from the earthquake area. It seems that the noticeable changes are related to the great Tangshan earthquake of July 28, 1976.     

Assessment of temporal changes in coastal sand dune environments using the log-hyperbolic grain-size method

Abstract Three cores (<9 m long) recovered from late Holocene coastal sand dunes in Northumberland, north‐eastern England, were examined stratigraphically and dated by the infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) method to the time period between the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; ≈ 900–1200 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ≈ 1550–1800 AD). Grain‐size variability and CaCO₃ content were determined at 10‐mm intervals throughout parts of the cores. The sahara computer program was used to plot the log‐hyperbolic distribution (LHD) of grain‐size spectra from different stratigraphic levels and estimate the LHD's statistical components. Core samples plot variously in the depositional and erosional domains of the hyperbolic chi (χ) vs. xi (ξ) shape triangle, which describes components of sediment sorting. Depositional and erosional phases, discriminated within the LHD's shape triangle, cannot readily be resolved from core stratigraphies or correlated between cores. IRSL dates from single cores show a clustering about the period 1430–1540. Between the dated horizons, dunes accreted at ≈ 0·02–0·05 m year^?1, enabling the timing of excursions in χ and ξ to be estimated. These excursions, which can be resolved to the subannual level between the dated horizons, may be related to deposition by episodic storms or storm surges in the North Sea region, which is supported by historical documentary evidence. This innovative use of the LHD method and its derived statistics can be used successfully to describe temporal trends in coastal depositional environments and identify likely storm events in dune sediment records.     

Climatology of yellow sand (Asian sand, Asian dust or Kosa)in East Asia

In order to study climatology of yellow sand (Asian sand, Asian dust or Kosa) in EastAsia, secular fluctuation in China, Korea and Japan in the recent 30 years was presented. Thenumber of days with sand-dust storm at five stations in China-Hotan, Zhangye, Minqin, Jurhand Beijing, decreases a lot at the former three stations, but changed little at the latter two stations.Suggesting that the recent global warming is more evident in Xinjiang and Gansu, where the fre-quency of cold air invasions from the higher latitudes is decreasing. But, the eastern parts ofMongolia, inner Mongolia, and North China encounter stronger cyclones in early spring as a resultof global warming. These cyclones bring cold air from higher latitudes, causing severe duststorms. Secular variation in the annual days with sand-dust storms in China and Kosa days in Ko-rea and Japan show a parallel change with higher frequency from 1975 to 1985. This may be re-lated to the higher frequency of La Nina years. However, different tendency was shown in theperiod from 1986 to 1996. Since 1996 or 1997, a sharp increase is clear, which may be caused bythe developed cyclones in East Asia as well as human activities, and stronger land degradationunder La Nina conditions. Anomalies of the total number of stations with Kosa days were dis-cussed in accordance with some synoptic meteorological conditions such as the differences be-tween Siberian anticyclone and Aleutian cyclone center at 500 hPa level during the previous winter.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of decadal-scale patterns in barrier island response to storms: Perdido Key,NW Florida

The ability to accurately quantify shoreline variability is essential in order to establish aggressive mitigation strategies, based on recent global climate change projections. This investigation employed a suite of coastal data (topographic maps, aerial photography, satellite imagery and lidar) to establish decadal trends of shoreline movement along Perdido Key, a sandy barrier island off Florida’s northwest coast. The technique used to detect morphologic change with time was a recently developed tool, Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R. This innovative methodology improves our understanding of the evolution of coastal systems by modeling shoreline variance using a method that is sensitive to shoreline shape. Results show that the barrier shoreline is a highly dynamic feature with distinct zones of erosion and accretion that are pervasive over time. In general, the island is displaying a mechanism of rotational instability with the eastern half retreating, and the western portion advancing. The inflection point, around which this rotational shifting is taking place, lies at the center of a Pleistocene headland located along the island’s midpoint. The results of this study suggest that coastal evolution along the island may be meta-stable, with trends in shoreline variance corresponding mainly to discrete storm events in time.     

葵花8号卫星在白云机场一次强对流冰雹中的监测应用

针对2019年2月21日强对流冰雹过程,采用广东省多普勒雷达拼图的组合反射率因子资料作参考真值,分别利用葵花8号卫星资料的11.2μm通道与7.0μm通道亮温差拟合和11.2μm通道、7.0μm通道分段拟合对雷达回波进行反演,发现在强对流(回波强度≥35 dBZ)识别上,11.2μm通道、7.0μm通道分段线性拟合比亮...