Are our ideas about Dst correct?

The idea of two separate storm time ring currents, a symmetric and an asymmetric one has accepted since the 1960s. The existence of a symmetric equatorial ring current was concluded from Dst. However, the asymmetric development of the low-latitude geomagnetic disturbance field during storms lead to the assumption of the real existence of an asymmetric ring current. I think it is time to inquire whether this conception is correct. Thus, I have investigated the development of the low-latitude geomagnetic field during all the magnetic local times under disturbed and quiet conditions. The storm on February 6–9, 1986 and a statistical analysis of many storms has shown that the asymmetry does not vanish during the storm recovery phase. The ratio between the recovery phase asymmetry and the main phase asymmetry is low only for powerful storms. Storms of moderate intensity show the opposite. The global picture of the field evolution of the February storm shows clear differences at different local times. For instance the main phase and recovery phase start time does not coincide with Dst. Also the ring current decay is not the same at different local times. Therefore, Dst gives an incorrect picture of the field development. Moreover, asymmetry does not disappear during international quiet days as the investigation of the low-latitude geomagnetic field shows. Considering all these observations, I think we must revise our ideas about the ring current. In my opinion only one ring current exists and this is an asymmetric one. This asymmetry increases during storms and develops rather fast to more or less symmetric conditions. However, in no case is itjustified to conclude from Dst that a symmetric ring current exists.     

The Dependence of the Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Flux Rope on Its Orientation,with Possible Application to Geomagnetic Storm Prediction

Interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) are one of the main sources of large non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. With the aid of a force-free flux rope model, the dependence of the intensity of geomagnetic activity (indicated by Dst index) on the axial orientation (denoted by θ and φ in GSE coordinates) of the magnetic cloud is analyzed theoretically. The distribution of the Dst values in the (θ, φ) plane is calculated by changing the axial orientation for various cases. It is concluded that (i) geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the region of θ<0°, especially in the region of θ≲−45°, where larger geomagnetic activity could be created; (ii) the intensity of geomagnetic activity varies more strongly with θ than with φ; (iii) when the parameters B ₀ (the magnetic field strength at the flux rope axis), R ₀ (the radius of the flux rope), or V (the bulk speed) increase, or |D| (the shortest distance between the flux rope axis and the x-axis in GSE coordinates) decreases, a flux rope not only can increase the intensity of geomagnetic activity, but also is more likely to create a storm, however the variation of n (the density) only has a little effect on the intensity; (iv) the most efficient orientation (MEO) in which a flux rope can cause the largest geomagnetic activity appears at φ∼0° or ∼ 180°, and some value of θ which depends mainly on D; (v) the minimum Dst value that could be caused by a flux rope is the most sensitive to changes in B ₀ and V of the flux rope, and for a stronger and/or faster MC, a wider range of orientations will be geoeffective. Further, through analyzing 20 MC-caused moderate to large geomagnetic storms during 1998 – 2003, a long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms on the basis of the flux rope model is proposed and assessed. The comparison between the theoretical results and the observations shows that there is a close linear correlation between the estimated and observed minimum Dst values. This suggests that using the ideal flux rope to predict practical MC-caused geomagnetic storms is applicable. The possibility of the long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms is discussed briefly.     

The challenge of predicting the occurrence of intense storms

Geomagnetic super-storms of October and November 2003 are compared in order to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Although these superstorms (D_ST < -300 nT) are associated with high speed CMEs, their DST indices show large variation. The most intense storm of November 20, 2003 (D_St∼ - 472 nT) had its source in a comparatively small active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare, while the others had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. An attempt has been made to implement a logistic regression model for the prediction of the occurrence of intense/superintense geomagnetic storms. The model parameters (regression coefficients) were estimated from a training data-set extracted from a data-set of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996–2002. The results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors. The model validation shows that 100% of the intense storms (-200 nT < D_St < -100 nT) and only 50% of the super-intense (DST < -200 nT) storms could be correctly predicted.     

The atmospheric circulation patterns influencing the frequency of spring sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the sand-storm frequency data fi＇om 37 weather stations in the Tarim Basin for the period 1961-2009, the relationship between the frequency of spring sandstorms in the Tafim Basin and the associated atmospheric circu- lation pattems is analyzed in this study. We found significantly negative correlations between sandstorm frequency and the 500-hPa geopotential height over the Paris Basin and midwestem Mongolia, while there were positive correlations over the Ural River region. The rising of the 500-hPa geopotential height in midwestem Mongolia and its falling over the Ural region corre- spond to a weakening of the large-scale wave patterns in the Eurasian region, which directly causes the frequency of the sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin to decline. Also, the abrupt decline in the spring sandstorm frequency in the Tarim Basin observed in the last half-century is associated with profound changes in the atmospheric circulation in these key regions. At the interannual scale, the strengthened cyclonic atmospheric circulation patterns in the western part of Mongolia and the anticyclonic patterns over the East European plains at 500-hPa geopotential height, are responsible for frequent sandstorm occurrences in the Tarim Basin.     

Mud dispersal across a Cretaceous prodelta: Storm‐generated,wave‐enhanced sediment gravity flows inferred from mudstone microtexture and microfacies

Determining sediment transport direction in ancient mudrocks is difficult. In order to determine both process and direction of mud transport, a portion of a well‐mapped Cretaceous delta system was studied. Oriented samples from outcrop represent prodelta environments from ca 10 to 120 km offshore. Oriented thin sections of mudstone, cut in three planes, allowed bed microstructure and palaeoflow directions to be determined. Clay mineral platelets are packaged in equant, face‐face aggregates 2 to 5 μm in diameter that have a random orientation; these aggregates may have formed through flocculation in fluid mud. Cohesive mud was eroded by storms to make intraclastic aggregates 5 to 20 μm in diameter. Mudstone beds are millimetre‐scale, and four microfacies are recognized: Well‐sorted siltstone forms millimetre‐scale combined‐flow ripples overlying scoured surfaces; deposition was from turbulent combined flow. Silt‐streaked claystone comprises parallel, sub‐millimetre laminae of siliceous silt and clay aggregates sorted by shear in the boundary layer beneath a wave‐supported gravity flow of fluid mud. Silty claystone comprises fine siliceous silt grains floating in a matrix of clay and was deposited by vertical settling as fluid mud gelled under minimal current shear. Homogeneous clay‐rich mudstone has little silt and may represent late‐stage settling of fluid mud, or settling from wave‐dissipated fluid mud. It is difficult or impossible to correlate millimetre‐scale beds between thin sections from the same sample, spaced only ca 20 mm apart, due to lateral facies change and localized scour and fill. Combined‐flow ripples in siltstone show strong preferred migration directly down the regional prodelta slope, estimated at ca 1 : 1000. Ripple migration was effected by drag exerted by an overlying layer of downslope‐flowing, wave‐supported fluid mud. In the upper part of the studied section, centimetre‐scale interbeds of very fine to fine‐grained sandstone show wave ripple crests trending shore normal, whereas combined‐flow ripples migrated obliquely alongshore and offshore. Storm winds blowing from the north‐east drove shore‐oblique geostrophic sand transport whereas simultaneously, wave‐supported flows of fluid mud travelled downslope under the influence of gravity. Effective wave base for sand, estimated at ca 40 m, intersected the prodelta surface ca 80 km offshore whereas wave base for mud was at ca 70 m and lay ca 120 km offshore. Small‐scale bioturbation of mud beds co‐occurs with interbedded sandstone but stratigraphically lower, sand‐free mudstone has few or no signs of benthic fauna. It is likely that a combination of soupground substrate, frequent storm emplacement of fluid mud, low nutrient availability and possibly reduced bottom‐water oxygen content collectively inhibited benthic fauna in the distal prodelta.     

Salt Desert and Saline-Ackaline Mixed Dust Storms:An Ignored Issure for Global Climate Change

正Salt desert,saline-alkaline dust storm and saline-alkaline mixed dust storm are significant but ignored problems for a long time.After many years of observations and researches,the author believes that salt desert,saline-alkaline dust     

Evaluating sulfur dynamics during storm events for three watersheds in the northeastern USA: a combined hydrological,chemical and isotopic approach

Concerns related to climate change have resulted in an increasing interest in the importance of hydrological events such as droughts in affecting biogeochemical responses of watersheds. The effects of an unusually dry summer in 2002 had a marked impact on the biogeochemistry of three watersheds in the north‐eastern USA. Chemical, isotopic and hydrological responses with particular emphasis on S dynamics were evaluated for Archer Creek (New York), Sleepers River (Vermont) and Cone Pond (New Hampshire) watersheds. From 1 August to 14 September 2002, all three watersheds had very low precipitation (48 to 69 mm) resulting in either very low or no discharge (mean 0·015, 0·15 and 0·000 mm day^?1 for Archer Creek, Sleepers River and Cone Pond, respectively). From 15 September to 31 October 2002, there was a substantial increase in precipitation totals (212, 246 and 198 mm, respectively) with increased discharge. Archer Creek was characterized by a large range of SO₄^2? concentrations (152 to 389 µeq L^?1, mean = 273 µeq L^?1) and also exhibited the greatest range in δ³⁴S values of SO₄^2? (?1·4 to 8·8 ‰ ). Sleepers River's SO₄^2? concentrations ranged from 136 to 243 µeq L^?1 (mean = 167 µeq L^?1) and δ³⁴S values of SO₄^2? ranged from 4·0 to 9·0 ‰ . Cone Pond's SO₄^2? concentrations (126–187 µeq L^?1, mean = 154 µeq L^?1) and δ³⁴S values (2·4 to 4·3 ‰ ) had the smallest ranges of the three watersheds. The range and mean of δ¹⁸O‐SO₄^2? values for Archer Creek and Cone Pond were similar (3·0 to 8·9 ‰ , mean = 4·5 ‰ ; 3·9 to 6·3 ‰ , mean = 4·9 ‰ ; respectively) while δ¹⁸O‐SO₄^2? values for Sleepers River covered a larger range with a lower mean (1·2 to 10·0 ‰ , mean = 2·5). The difference in Sleepers River chemical and isotopic responses was attributed to weathering reactions contributing SO₄^2?. For Archer Creek wetland areas containing previously reduced S compounds that were reoxidized to SO₄^2? probably provided a substantial source of S. Cone Pond had limited internal S sources and less chemical or isotopic response to storms. Differences among the three watersheds in S biogeochemical responses during these storm events were attributed to differences in S mineral weathering contributions, hydrological pathways and landscape features. Further evaluations of differences and similarities in biogeochemical and hydrological responses among watersheds are needed to predict the impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating along‐strike variation using thin‐bedded facies analysis,Upper Cretaceous Ferron Notom Delta,Utah

Thin‐bedded delta‐front and prodelta facies of the Upper Cretaceous Ferron Notom Delta Complex near Hanksville in southern Utah, USA, show significant along‐strike facies variability. Primary initiation processes that form these thin beds include surge‐type turbidity currents, hyperpycnal flows and storm surges. The relative proportion of sedimentary structures generated by each of these depositional processes/events has been calculated from a series of measured sedimentological sections within a single parasequence (PS6–1) which is exposed continuously along depositional strike. For each measured section, sedimentological data including grain size, lithology, bedding thickness, sedimentary structures and ichnological suites have been documented. Parasequence 6–1 shows a strong along‐strike variation with a wave‐dominated environment in the north, passing abruptly into a fluvial‐dominated area, then to an environment with varying degrees of fluvial and wave influence southward, and back to a wave‐dominated environment further to the south‐east. The lateral facies variations integrated with palaeocurrent data indicate that parasequence 6–1 is deposited as a storm‐dominated symmetrical delta with a large river‐dominated bayhead system linked to an updip fluvial feeder valley. This article indicates that it is practical to quantify the relative importance of depositional processes and determine the along‐strike variation within an ancient delta system using thin‐bedded facies analysis. The wide range of vertical stratification and grading sequences present in these event beds also allows construction of conceptual models of deposition from turbidity currents (i.e. surge‐type turbidity currents and hyperpycnal flows) and storm surges, and shows that there are significant interactions and linkages of these often paired processes.