低温低压条件下辉石粉末的热导率实验分析:对月球及火星表面热环境研究的指示

在真空条件下矿物粉末热导率的实验测量,可为我们研究月球及行星表面的热属性和热演化,解译热红外和微波探测数据,开展月球及行星探测载荷设计提供重要的数据参数。本研究主要采用改造后的Hot Disk TPS 2500S导热仪对辉石粉末的热导率进行测量。同时,分析了真空度、温度对辉石粉末热导率的影响。实验结果表明:1)热导率随着真空度的降低呈下降趋势,大气压力在1000Pa时,辉石粉末热传导机制发生明显改变。在低压条件下(1000Pa)热导率随真空度的变化趋于平缓;2)辉石粉末热导率随温度的升高而增大,但是增大的幅度在低压和常压条件下存在明显差异。根据实验结果,提出了低压条件下辉石粉末热导率随真空度和温度变化的关系式。本研究表明,在月球和火星表面热环境的研究中,温度和压力对热导率的影响程度是不同的。上述结果对未来开展地外样品的热导率测量提供了重要的参考。     

采空区输气管道弹性变形分析

近年来输气管道工程的大规模建设,其不可避免地要通过一些煤矿采空沉陷区和地质构造复杂区域。煤矿采空沉陷区的地表移动变形必然会使上覆的输气管道发生变形、甚至破坏,因此,分析与预测煤矿采空区地埋输气管道的安全性具有重要意义。本文以西气东输一线为例,依据弹性理论分析计算,当管道下伏分别为土体和岩体时,输气管道破坏时的岩土体垮塌宽度,并统计在垮塌影响范围一定的条件下,岩土体垮塌宽度与管道变形及最小曲率半径之间的规律。结果表明,管道的弯曲变形与垮塌宽度之间呈递增关系。     

珠江流域降水集中度时空变化特征及成因分析

基于珠江流域内43个常规气象站点1960~2012年的逐日降水资料,计算了流域内各站点长期降水集中度(LCI)和逐年降水集中度(ACI);采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和Sen’s坡度检验法检测ACI时间上的变化趋势;同时采用反距离权重插值法(IDW)对LCI的区域特征和ACI的变化趋势进行空间插值以分析降水集中度的时空分布规律;采用随机森林(RF)算法对降水集中度的影响因子进行重要度分析。结果表明:(1)珠江流域逐年降水集中度ACI的年际变化不明显,东南部呈上升趋势,西北部呈下降趋势;(2)珠江流域西北部长期降水集中度LCI值偏小,即降水分布较平均;东南部长期降水集中度LCI值偏大,即降水较集中,表明该地区降水极值情况发生的几率相对较高,该空间分布趋势可能是受距离海洋的远近及海拔的影响;(3)众多气候影响因子中,东亚夏季季风(EASMI)对珠江流域的降水集中度影响最明显。     

二连浩特市水资源与经济社会和谐度评价

以二连浩特市人水关系为研究对象,从取水总量和谐度、用水效率和谐度、水生态环境保护和谐度三个方面构建了二连浩特市水资源与经济社会和谐度评价体系。从评价结果可以看出,二连浩特市开展节水型社会建设以来,水资源与经济社会和谐度发生了较显著的改善。评价体系较好地反映了二连浩特市水资源与经济社会和谐度,对北方干旱缺水地区节水型社会建设具有借鉴意义。     

河元背地区绳索取心钻进泵压计算模型的建立与应用

泵压是反映金刚石绳索取心钻进时井内作业是否正常的重要参数。为了进一步研究泵压波动变化与实际钻进作业之间的关系,指导钻进工作的快速、安全开展,结合江西相山河元背地区CUSD2井实际泵压波动数据及相关钻进资料,建立了适用于本井的循环系统压力损失计算模型。对比分析模型计算的理论泵压与实际泵压的波动变化趋势,将模型应用于实际钻进,在此基础上预测后续地层的泵压波动区域范围,发现7 MPa的泵压安全值不再适用于后续地层钻进,调整设置泵压安全值为10 MPa,并利用邻井泵压波动数据进一步验证其可靠性。适当调整修正理论模型,使其可应用于河元背以及相山地区绳索取心钻进中,指导该地区钻探工作。     

定向钻进敷设电缆保护管轨迹优化设计研究

在老旧城区内采用定向钻进敷设地下管线,常常需要从已有的各类地下建（构）筑物或管线下方穿过,方案设计时就应考虑新建管道与之安全距离的取值问题。以厦门市某110 kV电力电缆的定向钻进工程的实际需求为出发点,在对国内现有规程规范及工程实例调查的基础上,对电力电缆保护管定向钻进敷设安全距离取值的影响因素进行分析,优化工程定向钻进敷设方案,指导该工程的建设,并为类似工程建设提供参考。     

Uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis

The character and importance of uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis drives how risk assessments are used in practice. The current interpretation of uncertainty is that, in addition to the aleatory risk which arises from presumed uncertainty in the world, it comprises the epistemic aspects of irresolution in a model or forecast, specifically model and parameter uncertainty. This is true in part but it is not all there is to uncertainty in risk analysis. The physics of hazards and of failure may be poorly understood, which goes beyond uncertainty in its conventional sense. There may be alternative scenarios of future conditions, for example non-stationarity in the environment, which cannot easily be forecast. There may also be deep uncertainties of the type associated with climate change. These are situations in which analysts do not know or do not agree on the system characterisation relating actions to consequences or on the probability distributions for key parameters. All of these facets are part of the uncertainty in risk analysis with which we must deal.     

Safety Assessment of Buried Pipeline during Pile Driving Vibration in Offshore Engineering

To assess the impact of pile driving on adjacent submarine pipelines during the reconstruction of a pier berth, the local damage model of submarine pipelines is established to explore the safety thresholds of the particle peak velocity and horizontal displacement. The results are analyzed and adjusted by the existing standards and the corresponding literatures. Then, a three-dimensional numerical model is presented to assess the feasibility of the construction of piles by the obtained safety limits, in which the nonlinear behavior of the soil and stress–seepage coupling analysis are considered. After the construction, the safety of submarine pipelines is rechecked by the measured value of the particle peak velocity and horizontal displacement. Meanwhile, the propagation law of vibration, the horizontal displacement of underground soil, and the pore pressure during pile driving are explored. The results indicate that the construction of piles of 2# mooring pier did not cause damage to adjacent submarine pipelines. However, the construction of piles of 1# mooring pier which is nearer may cause damage to submarine pipelines.     

三峡库岸滑坡变形特征及影响因素分析

三峡库区涉水滑坡主要影响因素是水位和降雨量,也是库区滑坡体失稳的主要影响因素和诱发因素。库区每年重复着水位升降不利于滑坡的稳定,而降雨特别是大强度的降雨也诱发产生滑坡。当水位波动遇到降雨,出现工况叠加,滑坡将加剧。因此,有必要对影响滑坡变形的主导因素进行了解分析。2016年6月三峡库区全面展开了自动化监测,使得数据统计方便可靠。本文采用滑坡变形速率、降雨量、库水位变化、最大水位变化速率、淹没程度,运用灰色关联度分析法对涉水滑坡进行了计算分析。水位下降阶段,文中土质滑坡变形受库水位影响最大。水位上升阶段,该土质滑坡上部变形受降雨影响最大,下部受水位影响最大。文中岩质滑坡总是受库水位影响最大。     

Probabilistic stability analyses of undrained slopes by 3D random fields and finite element methods

A long slope consisting of spatially random soils is a common geographical feature. This paper examined the necessity of three-dimensional(3 D) analysis when dealing with slope with full randomness in soil properties. Although 3 D random finite element analysis can well reflect the spatial variability of soil properties, it is often time-consuming for probabilistic stability analysis. For this reason, we also examined the least advantageous(or most pessimistic) cross-section of the studied slope. The concept of"most pessimistic" refers to the minimal cross-sectional average of undrained shear strength. The selection of the most pessimistic section is achievable by simulating the undrained shear strength as a 3 D random field. Random finite element analysis results suggest that two-dimensional(2 D) plane strain analysis based the most pessimistic cross-section generally provides a more conservative result than the corresponding full 3 D analysis. The level of conservativeness is around 15% on average. This result may have engineering implications for slope design where computationally tractable 2 D analyses based on the procedure proposed in this study could ensure conservative results.