有限m重非齐次马氏链随机变换的一个强极限定理

将赌博系统的随机变换概念推广到有限优重非齐次马氏链情形,采用鞅方法研究了有限m重非齐次马氏链函数的强极限定理,作为推论得到有限m重非齐次马氏链随机变换的若干强极限定理。     

DISTRIBUTION OF 3 EARTHQUAKE RUPTURE ZONES IN ESATERN TIENSHAN AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH 2 HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES

The distribution of earthquake rupture zone plays a very important role in determining location of epicenter and magnitude of historical earthquake. There is still argument about the seismogenic structure of the 1842 M7 Balikun earthquake and the 1914 M7 1/2 Balikun earthquake in the historical records in eastern Tienshan. Through field geological survey, we confirm that there exist 3 rupture zones in Eastern Tienshan. These rupture zones, Tazibulake rupture zone on the Jian Quanzi-Luo Baoquan Fault, north of Shanshan, Xiong Kuer rupture zone on the south Balikun Basin Fault and Yanchi rupture zone on the south Yiwu Basin Fault, are closely related to 2 historical earthquakes. Based on historical literature and current geological evidence analysis, we infer that Xiong Kuer rupture zone was produced by 1842 M7 earthquake and Yanchi rupture zone by 1914 M7 1/2 earthquake, while Tazibukale rupture zone may represent another unrecorded historical event. South Balikun Basin Fault disturbs Quaternary stratigraphy which has a ¹⁴C age of 3110±30 B.P in the south of Balikun County, ~100km to the east of Xiong Kuer rupture zone, therefore we can't preclude the possibility that Xiong Kuer rupture zone extends to the south of Balikun County. This region overlaps with the meizoseismal area based on the literature document, together with the fact that the impact of 1842 earthquake is no less than 1914 earthquake, we believe that the magnitude of 1842 earthquake is no less than that of the 1914 earthquake.     

THE TECTONIC ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF AWANCANG FAULT IN THE LATE QUATERNARY,THE SUB-STRAND OF THE EASTERN KUNLUN FAULT

It is well known that the slip rate of Kunlun Fault descends at the east segment, but little known about the Awancang Fault and its role in strain partitioning with Kunlun Fault. Whether the sub-strand(Awancang Fault) can rupture simultaneously with Kunlun Fault remains unknown. Based on field investigations, aerial-photo morphological analysis, topographic surveys and ¹⁴C dating of alluvial surfaces, we used displaced terrace risers to estimate geological slip rates along the Awancang Fault, which lies on the western margin of the Ruoergai Basin and the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau, the results indicate that the slip rate is 3mm/a in the middle Holocene, similar to the reduced value of the Kunlun Fault. The fault consists of two segments with strike N50° W, located at distance about 16km, and converged to single stand to the SE direction. Our results demonstrate that the Awancang fault zone is predominantly left-lateral with a small amount of northeast-verging thrust component. The slip rates decrease sharply about 4mm/a from west to east between the intersection zone of the Awancang Fault and Kunlun Fault. Together with our previous trenching results on the Kunlun Fault, the comparison with slip rates at the Kunlun fault zone suggests that the Awancang fault zone has an important role in strain partitioning for east extension of Kunlun Fault in eastern Tibet. At the same time, the 15km long surface rupture zone of the southeast segment was found at the Awancang Fault. By dating the latest faulted geomorphologic surface, the last event may be since the 1766±54 Cal a BP. Through analysis of the trench, there are four paleoearthquake events identified recurring in situ on the Awancang Fault and the latest event is since (850±30)a BP. The slip rate of the Awancang Fault is almost equivalent to the descending value of the eastern part of the east Kunlun Fault, which can well explain the slip rate decreasing of the eastern part of the east Kunlun Fault(the Maqin-Maqu segment)and the characteristics of the structure dynamics of the eastern edge of the Tibet Plateau. The falling slip rate gradient of the eastern Kunlun Fault corresponds to the geometric characteristic. It is the Awancang Fault, the strand of the East Kunlun Fault that accommodates the strain distribution of the eastward extension of the east Kunlun Fault. This study is helpful to seismic hazard assessment and understanding the deformation mechanism in eastern Tibet.     

COSEISMIC SURFACE RUPTURES AND SEISMOGENIC MUJI FAULT OF THE 25 NOVEMBER 2016 ARKETAO MW6.6 EARTHQUAKE IN NORTHERN PAMIR

The M_W6.6 Arketao earthquake,which occurred at 14:24:30 UTC 25 November 2016 was the largest earthquake to strike the sparsely inhabited Muji Basin of the Kongur extension system in the eastern Pamir since the M 7 1895 Tashkurgan earthquake.The preliminary field work,sentinel-1A radar interferometry,and relocated hypocenters of earthquake sequences show that the earthquake consists of at least two sub-events and ruptured at least 77km long of the active Muji dextral-slip fault,and the rupture from this right-lateral earthquake propagated mostly unilaterally to the east and up-dip.Tectonic surface rupture with dextral slip of up to 20cm was observed on two tens-meter long segments near the CENC epicenter and 32.6km to the east along the Muji Fault,the later was along a previously existing strand of the Holocene Muji fault scarps.Focal mechanisms are consistent with right-lateral motion along a plane striking 107°,dipping 76° to the south,with a rake of 174°.This plane is compatible with the observed tectonic surface rupture.More than 388 aftershocks were detected and located using a double-difference technique.The mainshock is relocated at the Muji Fault with a depth of 9.3km.The relocated hypocenters of the 2016 Arketao earthquake sequence showed a more than 85km long,less than 8km wide,and 5~13km deep,NWW trending streak of seismicity to the south of the Muji Fault.The focal mechanism and mapping of the surface rupture helped to document the south-dipping fault plane of the mainshock.The listric Muji Fault is outlined by the well-resolved south-dipping streak of seismicity.The 2016 Arketao M_W6.6 and 2015 Murghob M_W7.2 earthquakes highlight the importance role of strike-slip faulting in accommodating both east-west extensional and north-south compressional forces in the Pamir interior,and demonstrate that the present-day stress and deformation patterns in the northern Pamir plateau are dominant by east-west extension in the shallow upper crust.     

损伤破裂砂岩单轴蠕变特性试验研究

深部岩体工程处于高应力环境中,开挖破裂后的工程岩体在持续的高地应力作用下具有很强的时间效应,深入研究其峰后蠕变特性,具有重要的理论和实际应用价值。先采用RMT-150B型岩石力学试验系统对完整岩样进行单轴峰前屈服、峰后破裂卸载试验,制备出具有不同破裂损伤程度的峰前屈服、峰后破裂的损伤岩样;再采用RLW-2000型微机伺服岩石三轴流变仪对其进行单轴蠕变试验,研究其单轴蠕变力学特性。研究结果表明：损伤岩样波速与完整岩样相比,均出现了不同程度的降低;损伤岩样各级应力水平下,瞬时应变量均是随着应力水平的增加而逐步增加,且均符合线性函数关系;相同应力水平下,峰后破裂损伤岩样瞬时应变明显大于峰前屈服损伤岩样;各级应力水平下,总体上各蠕变量随着应力水平的增加而逐步提高,且均符合指数函数关系;相同应力水平下,峰后破裂损伤岩样蠕变量明显大于峰前屈服损伤岩样,且随着荷载水平的进一步提高,两者差异程度增加;损伤岩样各瞬时变形模量随着应力水平的增加均逐步提高,两者之间符合线性函数关系;各应力水平下对应的瞬时变形模量存在明显差异,岩样损伤程度越高,瞬时变形模量越低;各损伤岩样在各级应力水平下,改进的西原模型能够较好地模拟其单轴蠕变特征。     

基于孕灾环境的全球台风灾害链分类与区域特征分析

在全球气候变化与经济一体化的背景下,台风引发的次生灾害构成灾害链,加剧人口、经济等多方面的损失。以2000-2010年案例数据为基础,依据台风所经过区域的孕灾环境特性,提出了全球台风灾害链分类体系,并统计得出类型与强度的区域特征：在西北太平洋,主要发生于山地（丘陵）区（占34.4%）,强度为3.1;在南太平洋,主要发生于岛屿区（占59.2%）,强度为2.6~3.0;在北印度洋,主要发生于河口海岸区（占35.8%）,强度为0.7~0.9;在南印度洋,主要发生于平原区（占31%）,强度为2.6;在北大西洋与东北太平洋,主要发生于平原海岸区（分别占24.7%与31.2%）,强度分别为2.0~2.3和2.3。研究结果可为台风灾害链自动识别、动态模拟与预测提供理论基础,用以支持区域防灾减灾建设与应急响应策略制定。     

“Follow That Car!” Mobilities of Enthusiasm in a Rare Car's Restoration

This article follows one object, a rare car, through its life cycle and in so doing engages the literatures in cultural geography on mobilities, materiality, and enthusiasm to show how all three are linked in the restoration of this one automobile, a Czechoslovakian-built Tatra T87 from 1941. Through archival and autoethnographic research, we trace the history of the Tatra company and then follow the production, sale, and subsequent ownerships of this one particular car through two wars and across two continents. We detail its restoration, tracing a geography of automobile enthusiasm that brought this rusted hulk back to life, one facilitated internationally by the Internet but that nevertheless demands extraordinary mobilities of cars, people, and parts. In following this one thing, we join other scholars in complicating the commodity- or global-value chains so often described as linear, to uncover instead complex entanglements of reuse, repurposing, and restoration. Because the car in question is our own, we mobilize our experiences with the car to reveal how the geographies of enthusiasms (automotive and otherwise) involve sustained and profound emotional engagements—emotional engagements often left out of academic accounts where, we suggest, they might be desirable as well.     

Preliminary study on aftershock decay rate of the 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake

We obtained a catalog of early aftershocks of the 2013 Lushan earthquake by examining waveform from a nearby station MDS which is 30.2 km far away from the epicenter, and then we analyzed the relation between aftershock rate and time. We used time-window ratio method to identify aftershocks from continuous waveform data and compare the result with the catalog provided by China Earthquake Networks Center （CENC）. As expected, a significant amount of earthquakes is missing in CENC catalog in the 24 h after the main shock. Moreover, we observed a steady seismicity rate of aftershocks nearly in the first 10,000 s before an obvious power-law decay of aftershock activity. We consider this distinct early stage which does not fit the Omori law with a constant p （p - 1） value as early aftershock deficiency （EAD）, as proposed by previous studies. Our study suggests that the main shock rupture process is different from aftershocks＇ processes, and EAD can vary in different cases as compared to earthquakes of strike-slip mechanism in California.     

Soil bentonite wall protects foundation from thrust faulting: analyses and experiment

When seismic thrust faults emerge on the ground surface,they are particularly damaging to buildings,bridges and lifelines that lie on the rupture path.To protect a structure founded on a rigid raft,a thick diaphragm-type soil bentonite wall(SBW) is installed in front of and near the foundation,at sufficient depth to intercept the propagating fault rupture.Extensive numerical analyses,verified against reduced–scale(1 g) split box physical model tests,reveal that such a wall,thanks to its high deformability and low shear resistance,"absorbs" the compressive thrust of the fault and forces the rupture to deviate upwards along its length.As a consequence,the foundation is left essentially intact.The effectiveness of SBW is demonstrated to depend on the exact location of the emerging fault and the magnitude of the fault offset.When the latter is large,the unprotected foundation experiences intolerable rigid-body rotation even if the foundation structural distress is not substantial.     

历史大地震破裂区地震危险性的地震活动性定量分析—以南北地震带中北段为例

尽管地震空区理论在中长期地震预测中起着重要的作用,但大地震复发在时间上的丛集或非线性行为使得在中长期地震预测研究中依然需要同时考虑非地震空区的、历史地震破裂区的潜在大地震危险性。为了探索能基于观测资料分析的、鉴别历史地震破裂区（包括历史、史前地震破裂的地震空区）大地震复发危险性的技术方法,我们在南北地震带中北段挑选出8个具有不同离逝时间的历史大地震破裂区,分析这些破裂区现代地震活动性的量化特征,以初步探索判定潜在大地震危险性紧迫程度的地震活动性方法。结果主要显示,反映地震序列衰减状态的p值和反映地震活动率的a值与这些历史破裂区最晚大地震的离逝时间有较好的对应关系,但也有部分破裂区可能由于复杂的断层结构与运动性质,对应关系并不明确;反映构造应力积累状况的b值则难于反映离逝时间演化阶段的信息。b值的时间扫描结果显示,大部分历史破裂区的b值随时间演化平稳,但1879年甘肃武都8级地震破裂区的b值则表现为明显的涨落,并存在持续20年的降低趋势。对比分析认为,1933年四川茂县7.5级、1976年四川松潘-平武两次7.2级地震破裂区目前仍处于序列衰减期,不具备再次发生7级以上地震的背景;公元842年迭部7级地震破裂区北缘低b值的玛曲段比迭部段更具危险性;1879年武都8级地震破裂区的b值持续降低也可能反映该区处于新的一轮孕震期。