Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

Trace gas exchange at the air/water interface: Measurements of mass accommodation coefficients

A liquid jet of 90 m diameter and variable length has been utilized to determine absorption rates and, hence, mass accommodation coefficients , of atmospheric trace gases. The compounds investigated are HCl (0.01), HNO₃ (0.01), N₂O₅ (0.005), peroxyacetyl nitrate (>0.001), and HONO (0.005). It is concluded that the absorption of these trace gases by liquid atmospheric water is not significantly retarded by interfacial mass transport. The strengths and limitations of the liquid jet technique for measuring mass accommodation coefficients are explored.     

Spectral Simulation and Conditioning to Local Continuity Trends in Geologic Modeling

Spectral simulation has gained application in building geologic models due to the advantage of better honoring the spatial continuity of petrophysical properties, such as reservoir porosity and shale volume. Distinct from sequential simulation methods, spectral simulation is a global algorithm in the sense that a global density spectrum is calculated once and the inverse Fourier transform is performed on the Fourier coefficient also only once to generate a simulation realization. The generated realizations honor the spatial continuity structure globally over the whole field instead of only within a search neighborhood, as with sequential simulation algorithms. However, the disadvantage of global spectral simulation is that it traditionally cannot account for the local information such as the local continuity trends, which are often observed in reservoirs and hence are important to be accounted for in geologic models. This disadvantage has limited wider application of spectral simulation in building geologic models. In this paper, we present ways of conditioning geologic models to the relevant local information. To account for the local continuity trends, we first scale different frequency components of the original model with local-amplitude spectrum ratios that are specific to the local trend. The sum of these scaled frequency components renders a new model that displays the desired local continuity trend. The implementation details of this new method are discussed and examples are provided to illustrate the algorithm.     

基于小波消噪和符号动力学的径流变化复杂性研究

提出了基于小波消噪的符号动力学途径研究径流变化的复杂度。对径流序列进行小波消噪,运用Lempel-Ziv算法计算其复杂度,以长江、黄河流域为例定量分析年径流复杂性。为研究水文系统的复杂性提供了工具。研究表明:①黄河流域径流变化比长江流域复杂;②黄河流域年径流的平均复杂度为8.3,从上游到下游的复杂性变化趋势不明显;③从时间纵向看,黄河年径流变化的复杂性并未发生显著的变化。     

粗差发现和定位能力与相关系数的关系

根据粗差判断方程中的判断矩阵和两个统计检验量之间相关系数的函数式,论证了两种不同的研究方法所确定的粗差不能定位的数学模型实际上是相等的。通过算例,不仅说明两种研究方法对观测量不能定位粗差的判断是一致的,而且使用判断矩阵研究观测量的粗差发现和定位能力会更加方便简单。     

Laboratory Studies Of Wind Stress Over Surface Waves

Simultaneous laboratory observations of wind speed, wind stress, and surfacewind-wave spectra are made under a variety of wind forcing patterns using cleanwater as well as water containing an artificial surfactant. Under typical experimentalconditions, more than half of the total stress is supported by the wave-induced stressrather than by the surface viscous stress. When the surfactant reduces the shortwind-wave spectra, the wind stress also decreases by as much as 20–30% at agiven wind speed. When the wind forcing is modulated in time, the wind stresstends to be higher under decreasing wind than under increasing wind at a givenwind speed, mainly because the response of short wind-wave spectra to varyingwind forcing is delayed in time. These examples clearly demonstrate that therelationship between the wind speed and the wind stress can be significantlymodified if the surface wave field is not in equilibrium with the wind forcing.Next, we examine whether the wind stress is estimated accurately if the wave-inducedstress by all surface wave components is explicitly evaluated by linear superpositionand is added to the surface viscous stress. It is assumed that the surface viscous stressis uniquely related to the wind speed, and that the wind input rate is determined by thelocal, reduced turbulent stress rather than the total stress. Our wind stress estimatesincluding the wave contributions agree well with observed wind stress values, evenif the surface wave field is away from its equilibrium with the wind in the presenceof surface films and/or under time-transient wind forcing. These observations stronglysuggest that the wind stress is accurately evaluated as a sum of the wave-induced stressand the surface viscous stress. At very high winds, our stress estimates tend to be lowerthan the observations. We suspect that this is because of the enhancement of wind stressover very steep (or breaking) short wind-waves.     

Application of Linear Thermodynamics to the Atmospheric System. Part Ⅰ: Linear Phenomenological Relations and Thermodynamic Property of the Atmospheric System

从一般的热力学原理或其它自然原理对唯象关系所强加的限制，能够演绎出大气系统的一系列热力学性质。利用非平衡态线性热力学导出了湍流K闭合理论中湍流交换系数同唯象系数的关系，从理论上证明大气系统热量湍流输送同水泡之间存在交叉耦合，还导出了湍流强度同速度和位温梯度的关系，从而证明速度和位温空间分布的非均匀性是湍流之源。并证明湍流强度定理，不可压缩气体和各向同性湍流大气中，湍流强度正比于速度与位温梯度的标积。进而证明大气涡旋定理，位温的切变将导致涡旋运动或各种环流运动，速度涡度等于速度同位温相对梯度的矢积。展现了线性热力学在大气系统的应用前景。     

因子计量图的新思路

R型因子分析中，因子计量从所有原始变量中将某一特定因子的有关信息集中起来，可被用来解释某一特定地质作用形成的样品在不同空间的分布等问题，由已知典型地质体的元素含量等地球化学指标计算出来的因子计量系数矩阵作为模型，用这个模型可以计算未知地质体的因子计量，这种方法，不仅可以节省每次加入新样品或舍去部分样品时所有因子计量图都需要重新做的繁重的工作量，而且更重要的是这种图的地球化学意义明确，使我们能够用已知的典型地质现象去预测未知地质观象提供了一条新的途径。     

可控深度电法对水平柱体和垂直界面的计算和实验

球状地球体可控深度电法的效应系数可近似地全面表达可控深度电法和各种效应。通过点源二度体的电算模拟实验，证明了该方法在水平柱状体和地下存在电阻率垂直界面的条件下，也是有效的。     

三峡库区滑坡治理工程设计中推力荷载计算方法初探

随着三峡水利工程的逐步实施，淹没区移民及新城镇建设等人类工程活动的加剧，以滑坡为主的环境地质问题日益突出。本文从稳定系数、安全系数入手，对铁道、公路等部门常用的设计计算原理进行了研究，并由此类比分析研究了三峡区回水后或库水位正常运行条件下，滑坡治理工程设计计算方法。