A bivariate meta-Gaussian density for use in hydrology

Convenient bivariate densities found in the literature are often unsuitable for modeling hydrologic variates. They either constrain the range of association between variates, or fix the form of the marginal distributions. The bivariate meta-Gaussian density is constructed by embedding the normal quantile transform of each variate into the Gaussian law. The density can represent a full range of association between variates and admits arbitrarily specified marginal distributions. Modeling and estimation can be decomposed into i) independent analyses of the marginal distributions, and ii) investigation of the dependence structure. Both statistical and judgmental estimation procedures are possible. Some comparisons to recent applications of bivariate densities in the hydrologic literature motivate and illustrate the model.     

黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征

突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔，各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同，它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制遍异，因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域，计算出各区域1951—1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份，结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致，主要在1953—1955年、1979—1983年、1991—1993年等发生了突变，这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性，且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期，发现主要存在3～4a、7～9a、11a的周期，形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海—气相互作用和下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化，发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。     

Variation of the plasma turbulence in the central plasma sheet during substorm phases observed by the interball/tail satellite

Fluctuations of the plasma bulk velocity across the plasma sheet are studied using single-point measurements from the Corall instrument on board the Interball/Tail satellite. Several hour-long intervals of continuous data corresponding to quiet geomagnetic conditions and different phases of isolated substorms are analyzed. The plasma sheet flow appears to be strongly turbulent, i.e. dominated by fluctuations that are unpredictable. Corresponding eddy diffusion coefficients were obtained as a function of the autocorrelation time and rms velocity of the fluctuations. It was found that the amplitude of the turbulence and the values of eddy-diffusion coefficients increase significantly during substorm growth and expansion phases and they decrease to their initial level during the recovery phase. We also studied a relationship between the eddy-diffusion coefficients and the absolute value of the geomagnetic field, also measured by the Interball/Tail satellite. It was found that this relationship varies depending on the phase of substorm, indicating possible change in the turbulence regimen with substorm phase.     

北极河流径流量变化及影响因子分析

利用最新的北极径流资料(R-arcticNET V3.0和Arctic RIMS),对进入北冰洋的4条主要河流的季节及年代际变化进行诊断分析。结果表明:入海径流在4-6月的大幅增加主要是由气温达到融点后积雪融化造成的,降水的作用次之。总的来说,欧亚区域在过去的70年里入海径流量是增加的,而北美区域在近30年里入海径流量是减小的,但注入北冰洋的径流总量是增大的。值得注意的是入海径流的年代际变化在不同季节增减趋势显著不同,夏季和秋季径流量减小,而其他两个季节径流量增大。进一步分析了影响入海径流变化的一些气候因子,结果表明:北大西洋涛动(北太平洋指数)与欧亚(北美)区域的冬、春季径流量存在正相关。春季气温与春季径流量呈正相关,而与夏季径流量呈负相关。降水与径流量基本上为同步正相关。春季积雪覆盖面积与春季径流量为负相关,而与夏季径流量为正相关,夏季积雪覆盖面积与夏季的径流量为正相关。     

黄铁矿热电性研究在庞家河金矿评价中的应用

庞家河金矿载金矿物黄铁矿的热电性测量结果为：热电系数（α）均为正值，平均223．075μv／℃，属空穴型（P型）导电。根据热电系数数值求得的热电性参数数位集中在（50～70）之间，反映庞家河金矿矿体剥蚀程度不大，属中上部出露；相对矿化总长度的剥蚀百分比为30％～35％，并根据热电性参数求得矿体的总延伸深度L＝1204m，矿体的尖灭深度L0＝805m。该计算结果与后来进行的矿床勘探结果基本吻合。     

俯冲带温度条件下橄榄石中硅氧四面体的非谐振动:透射红外光谱研究

橄榄石既是上地幔的主要矿物,又是俯冲板块的主要矿物。在正常地幔温度条件下,橄榄石中原子之间的振动是非谐振动,这已成为学界共识;然而,对于俯冲带的较低温情况,橄榄石中原子之间的振动的非谐性是否重要,目前还没有比较一致的结论。本研究利用透射红外光谱的方法,系统研究了室温下不同厚度橄榄石中硅氧四面体的红外光谱特征,并着重对其在2100~1500cm-1区域形成的二倍频峰/合频峰进行了指认。在此基础上,本研究通过采集不同温度下的透射红外光谱数据(最高温度达约450℃),确立了橄榄石中硅氧四面体的相应基频峰及二倍频峰峰位对温度的依赖性,进而得出其相应红外振动的非谐系数(χ)随温度(T)的变化关系,具体为:χ838=6.37(2)×10-7×T+0.0014(1)及χ993=7.86(3)×10-7×T+0.0015(1),其中温度的单位为℃。外推到600℃时,有χ838=0.0018(1)及χ993=0.0020(2)。这些结果表明,在俯冲带的较低温条件下,橄榄石中硅氧四面体的内部振动的非谐性可能不重要。     

多空隙组合地质单元渗流理论分析与试验

岩体通常是以孔隙岩石为基质并包含各种成因的裂隙和溶隙的复杂多空隙组合地质材料。为研究孔隙-裂隙-溶隙多空隙组合介质的渗流特性,在简要介绍多孔介质渗流Darcy定律、平板窄缝流Poiseuille定律和圆形管道流Darcy-Weibach理论的基础上,分析了几种孔隙-裂隙-溶隙组合情况的多空隙介质渗流特性,推导出相应组合的等效渗透系数KE,给出了描述多空隙组合介质KE的一般表达式,讨论了影响各种空隙组合KE的主要因素。以普通砖模拟岩石基质,通过砖身钻孔填充及砖间缝隙填充,试验模拟了岩溶岩体和裂隙岩体中溶孔和裂隙填充后的渗透情况。试验结果与所推求理论公式计算出的KE在同一量级且误差很小,很好地验证了所推导的多空隙组合介质渗透系数表达式的有效性。     

Absorption properties of urban/suburban aerosols in China

The broadband diffuse radiation method is improved to retrieve the aerosol refractive index imaginary part （AIP） and broadband （400-1000 nm mean） single scattering albedo （SSA）. In this method, four sets of SSA selection criteria are proposed for quality control. The method is used to retrieve AIP, SSA and absorptive optical thickness （AbOT） from routine hourly-exposed pyrheliometer and paranometer measurements over 11 sites （meteorological observatories） in China during 1998-2003. Apart from one suburban site （Ejin Qi）, the other urban sites are all located around big or medium cities. As shown in the retrieval results, annual mean SSA during 1998-2003 changes from 0.941 （Wuhan） to 0.849 （Lanzhou）, and AIP from 0.0054 to 0.0203. The 11-site average annual mean SSA and AIP are 0.898 and 0.0119, respectively. SSA during winter is smaller for most sites. There is an evidently positive correlation between SSA and aerosol optical thickness （AOT） for all sites. There is also a positive correlation between SSA and relative humidity for most sites, but a negative correlation for a few sites, such as Kashi and ǚrǚmqi in Northwest China.     

A THEORETICAL BASIS FOR THE PRIESTLEY-TAYLOR COEFFICIENT

The relationship between potential evaporation and arealevaporation is assessed using a closed-box model of the convectiveboundary layer (CBL). Potential evaporation is defined as theevaporation that would occur from a hypothetical saturated surface,with radiative properties similar to those of the whole area, and smallenough that the excess moisture flux does not modify thecharacteristics of the CBL. It is shown that the equilibrium rate ofpotential evaporation is given by Ep0=E0,where E0 is the equilibrium evaporation (radiative termof the Penman formula), and is a coefficient similar to thePriestley-Taylor coefficient. Its expression is , where is the areal surface resistance, r_a is the localaerodynamic resistance, and is the dimensionless slope of thesaturation specific humidity at the temperature of the air. Itscalculated value is around 1 for any saturated surface surrounded bywater, about 1.3 for saturated grass surrounded by well-watered grassand can be greater than 3 over saturated forest surrounded by forest.The formulation obtained provides a theoretical basis to the overallmean value of 1.26, empirically found by Priestley and Taylor for thecoefficient . Examining, at the light of this formulation, thecomplementary relationship between potential and actual evaporation(as proposed by Bouchet and Morton), it appears that the sum ofthese two magnitudes is not a constant at equilibrium, but depends onthe value of the areal surface resistance.     

基于相关系数和Fisher最优分割法的汛期分期研究

从径流形成原理出发,提出了采用降雨径流相关系数作为汛期分期指标的基本思路。以陕西省石头河水库1954~2007年的日降水和日流量资料为基础,采用主成分分析法对影响时段径流的因素进行了分析,筛选出了影响不同时段径流量的主要因素,计算了主要影响因素与时段径流量的相关系数,采用Fisher最优分割法将石头河水库汛期划分为汛前过渡期(4月1日~5月20日)、前汛期(5月21日~7月10日)、主汛期(7月11日~8月10日)、后汛期(8月11日~9月20日)和汛后过渡期(9月21日~10月31日),并结合区域气候特点和实际发生的洪水对成果进行了合理性论证。该方法资料要求低,计算简便,具有一定的推广应用价值。