陆表自然和人文要素相互作用——“全球变化及应对”重点专项研究进展

在国家重点研发计划支持下,项目提出了陆表不均一性检测和订正的新方法,解决了渐变型不均一性检测和订正的难题,构建了中国地表太阳辐射、气温、地温、风速和降水等参数均一化站点和格点数据集,修订了关于中国地表风速变化趋势、增温格局及其形成机制的结论。融合多源数据,构建并验证了千米级、流域级或县域级的电厂、人口、生物质能、取水量、氮排放、二氧化碳排放等影响自然系统的关键人文要素历史和未来预估数据集。构建了未来关键人文要素情景,研制了碳中和目标下甲烷和氧化亚氮排放情景和用于驱动全球模式的未来情景,预估了中国碳中和战略的实施对全球变暖的减缓作用,发现中国碳中和对远期和中期全球变暖的减缓作用显著。给出了中国各省份水体氮排放安全阈值及超越时间,阐明了中国粮食产量与氮施肥的关系,提出了在保障粮食安全的前提下减少水体氮排放的有效途径,指出重构城乡养分循环体系是同时保障粮食安全和恢复水质的必要途径。发现全球饱和水汽压差的年际变化与大气二氧化碳浓度上升速率的年际变化显著相关,阐明了饱和水汽压差变化在调控生态系统生产力中的重要角色以及多因素耦合作用在生态系统生产力变化中的复杂影响。建议更全面细致地评估中国各种碳中...     

气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

近50年石家庄地-气温差变化特征

利用石家庄17个国家气象站1972—2021年逐日地面气温、0 cm地温资料,分析了石家庄地-气温差的变化特征,结果表明：(1)石家庄地-气温差从1月开始逐渐增加,5月达到最大值5.0℃,然后开始减小,12月达到最小值-0.8℃;地-气温差在11月到次年1月为负值;春、夏、秋季均为正值,夏季最大,春季大于秋季,冬季以负值为主;(2)石家庄多年平均地-气温差在1.6～2.6℃之间,平均为2.1℃;整体上东部大于西部。(3)近50年石家庄年平均地-气温差呈显著的减小趋势,变化速率为-0.14℃/10a;夏、秋、冬三季的减小趋势均非常显著,夏季的减小趋势最强;石家庄市区和近郊站点年和四季地-气温差的减少趋势更显著。本文结论对科学认识石家庄城市生态环境的变化具有参考意义。     

Environmental evolution of Gongwang Mountains during Holocene in northeastern Yunnan, China

This paper presents the study on two continuous glacio-lacustrine sedimentary deposits, Laotanfang （3 597 m） and Shibantang （3 689 m） located on the southern and northern sides of Hulifang peak in Yunan, China. Environmental change indexes are constructed for each deposit, based on grain size, geochemical and pollen analysis, environmental magnetic susceptibility, and 14C dating. The study of climatic environmental change since the Holocene epoch in this region shows that the climate fluctuated at different stages during the early Holocene, that is, the climate was cool and wet during 8.4-7. 7r ka, cold and wet during 7.7-6. 5 ka, cold and dry during 6. 5-4.7 ka, cool and wet during 4.7-2. 1 ka, warm and wet during 2. 1-1.0 ka, and warmer and wet since 1 ka. These findings reflect the overlapping influences of the southwest and southeast monsoons in different times during the Holocene in the north part of southwestern China are in accord with other Holocene climate change models in this part of China.     

全球温度变化的热力学平衡和最新发现

本文提出了一种新的研究全球气候温度变化的思路。为发现全球气候变化的宏观规律,把生物圈系统作为一个整体的物质进行研究,从而把纷繁复杂的全球气候温度变化问题归纳成经典物理学的热量与温度变化问题。给出了广义生物圈的热平衡测量Q值和温度变化的热力学公式,并在实际数据的基础上通过计算发现人类使用矿物燃料和核能所排放的热量理论上可使全球海平面每年升高35 mm或者可使大气对流层温度每年升高011 ℃。该发现表明:能源热量因素已成为影响全球温度变化的重要因素。     

Estimating the impacts of land-cover change on runoff using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT): case study of Nzoia catchment,Kenya / Estimation des impacts du changement d'occupation du sol sur l'écoulement à l'aide de SWAT: étude du cas du bassin de Nzoia,Kenya

Abstract

The SWAT model was used to investigate the impact of land-cover changes on the runoff of the River Nzoia catchment, Kenya. The model was calibrated against measured daily discharge, and land-cover changes were examined through classification of satellite images. Land-cover change scenarios were generated, namely the worst- and best-case scenarios. Historical land-cover change results showed that agricultural area increased from 39.6 to 64.3% between 1973 and 2001, while forest cover decreased from 12.3 to 7.0%. A comparison between 1970–1975 and 1980–1985 showed that land-cover changes accounted for a difference in surface runoff ranging from 55 to 68% between the two time periods. The land-cover scenarios used showed the magnitude of changes in runoff due to changes in the land covers considered. Compared to the 1980–1985 runoff, the land-cover scenarios generated changes in runoff of about ?16% and 30% for the best and worst case scenarios respectively.     

D) UNITED Nations

Synopsis

In areas of accentuated relief, some of the basic assumptions made in the use of standard methods of assessing areal mean rainfall are often untenable. It is shown in this paper, that, not only does topography affect the actual rainfall distribution, but that the areal variability, measured as the correlation between any two points, is also dependent on the relief. Two methods are used to show this. Once method compares the areal variability of a flat area to one of accentuated relief, while the second method relates areal variability to topographic factors using a multiple regression technique.

The conclusions reached are then used for three purposed. The first is to develop a method of ascribing objectively areas or points to a particular raingauge, taking into account the nature of the terrain. The second is to establish a procedure for estimating the rainfall at ungauged points, by taking into account the rainfall at a selected nearby rainguage and the topographic situation of the points, and the third purpose is to provide means of establishing a correction factor to be applied to a raingauge reading in order that the reading may more accurately represent the area ascribed to it.     

Secondary Calcification of Planktic Foraminifera from the Indian Sector of Southern Ocean

This study focused on planktic foraminifera in plankton tows and surface sediments from the western Indian sector of Southern Ocean in order to evaluate the potential foraminiferal secondary calcification and/or dissolution in the sediment. It is found that the symbiotic foraminiferal species are abundant in the subtropical region, whereas non-symbiotic species dominate in the sub-Antarctic and polar frontal regions. The distribution of the symbiotic and non-symbiotic foraminiferal species is controlled by temperature, salinity, light, nutrients and phytoplankton biomass. There is also a lateral southern extent in abundance of planktic foraminifera from surface sediments to plankton tows. The shell weights of the planktic foraminifera N. pachyderma, G. bulloides and G. ruber within the surface sediments are on an average heavier by 27%, 34% and 40% respectively than shells of the same size within the plankton tows, indicative of secondary calcification. The planktic foraminiferal isotopes show the presence of heavier isotopes in the surface sediment foraminifera as compared to plankton tows, thus confirming secondary calcification. Secondary calcification in G. ruber occurs in the euphotic zone, whereas in case of N. pachyderma and G. bulloides it is at deeper depths. We also observed a decrease in the shell spines in surface sediment foraminifera as compared to plankton tows, indicative of the morphological changes that foraminifera underwent during gametogenesis.     

A new theoretical solution of the effect of atmospheric pressure on water level

Based on the partial differential equation governing the effect of atmospheric pressure on water level of confined well, deriving the boundary condition and considering the seepage water between well and aquifer, the author obtained the analytical solution of water level change in time domain under the action of an atmospheric pressure history with the Laplace transform method. This solution is composed of two terms:stable and retarded terms. The stable term is the multiplication of barometric efficiency and simultaneous atmospheric pressure, and it implies the value of water level after infinite time when the atmospheric pressure is a constant from the time in question. The retarded term is the transient process due to the time lag of water exchange between well and aquifer. From the solution, it is obtained that the interference of atmospheric pressure on water level is the integral superimposition of the contribution of all atmospheric pressure changes before the time in question. So that, we further found out the response function of pulsive atmospheric pressure history. Calculation shows: (1) The pulsive response function starts from zero and tends to a steady value, which is proportional to the barometric efficiency, when the time tends to infinity; (2) The retarded time depends on the mechanical property of aquifer and the radius of well. The larger the seepage coefficient, the smaller the radius of well and the thicker the aquifer, then the shorter the retarded time gets. This solution can be used as the theoretical basis for further analysis of the atmospheric effect and practical correcting method in the future.     

Effect of urbanization on runoff characteristics of the On-Cheon Stream watershed in Pusan,Korea

This study investigated the effect of urbanization on runoff from the On-Cheon Stream watershed in Pusan, Korea. This watershed has been experiencing considerable urbanization since the 1960s. There are two gauging stations in the watershed. For one of the stations there are recent flow data and for the other flow data were observed in the past. A linear reservoir model was chosen and runoff was analysed for several flood events. The linear reservoir model has been found to generate flood hydrographs accurately for both gauging stations, and its applicability to the study area has also been established. Using two methods of computing effective rainfall or rainfall excess (ϕ-index and constant percentage method), the results of runoff analyses were investigated. The ϕ-index method yielded better results than the constant percentage method. A comparison of hydrographs observed in the past with the simulation results at the Ie-Sup bridge site revealed that the peak discharge increased and the mean lag time of the study area decreased owing to urbanization over the past two decades. It is also possible to evaluate the effect of urbanization quantitatively. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.