用于风电场功率预测的逐时风速预报

为满足风电场精细化风速预报的需要,利用MM5模式的格点输出数值预报产品以及福建沿海地区两座海上测风塔的逐时气象资料,采用逐步回归的统计方法,将MM5数值预报产品与测风塔实测气象资料要素指标值共同引入回归方程,拟合两座测风塔特定高度的逐小时风速预报方程,详细介绍了该方法的实现过程.通过一年的预报效果指标以及15日的独立样本效果检验,结果表明该方法对于逐小时风速的预报有一定的应用价值.     

Comments on: ‘The Neutral, Barotropic Planetary Boundary Layer, Capped by a Low-Level Inversion’ by G. D. Hess, Boundary-Layer Meteorology (2004) 110, pp. 319–355

Precision measurements indicate that the stability capping of the neutral planetary boundary layer (PBL) that leads to a reduced PBL height is caused by the very stable upper part of the PBL, rather than by an overlying inversion. Radiative processes related to liquid water in boundary-layer clouds seem to play the key role for the formation of the stable upper PBL. The famous Leipzig Profile – generally considered as an example of a neutral PBL – has been included in Hess’s analysis because its PBL height is considerably lower than the ca. 3000 m to be expected by numerical models in truly neutral conditions. An analysis of the original observations reveals that the Leipzig PBL was stable and that it can be consistently treated as a ‘normal’ stable PBL with a height of ca. 700 m. A further finding is that the super-geostrophic PBL wind speed maxima predicted by almost all models are not observed in near-steady-state conditions. For the ‘ranking’ of analytical models versus numerical models, the comparisons with measurements show that the analytical models perform comparably well and even partially better than the numerical models.     

地壳运动整体观论纲

本文在全面讨论了构造体系与全球运动场、板块构造与旋转扩张、断块构造、镶嵌构造、地洼说与地球自转、构造迁移的方向性及地球水圈、气圈和生物圈的运动规律以后,提出了地球动力系统统一观,并进一步论述了包括重力、热力、离心惯性力等在内的地球动力系统中,地球自转和自转速度不均衡乃是发动地壳运动的主因,而地球整体的运动和变化,又受着天体活动的影响。
本文纲要性地指出,地壳上各种地质现象与相关的自然现象是一个有联系的整体,受控于地球整体的运动系统。      

多种风电场风速预报订正方法的适用性研究与集成应用

以内蒙古中部某风电场为实验风电场,采用随机森林（Random forest,RF）方法、相似误差订正（Analogue correction of errors,ACE）方法以及概率密度匹配方法（Probability density function matching method,PDF）分别对风电场风速预报进行订正及适用性研究。结果表明：3种方法在各季均对中尺度天气预报模式（Weather research and forecasting model, WRF）风速预报具有不同程度的订正效果,RF方法可以有效改善WRF误差较大的问题,但兼具误差过分放大情况,ACE方法和PDF虽然对较大误差的改善能力不及RF方法,但是能够较好地控制误差过分放大问题。此外,3种方法针对小于5 m·s^-1的小风速段,订正效果不理想,随着风速的增加,订正能力逐渐增强。参照预报模型各自的优势,尝试开展多种预报模型的分风速等级集成应用,可以对不同风速等级下的WRF预报起到较好的改善作用。     

三种常用声速算法的比较

在近几年的西太平洋调查中使用了SV Plus声速测量仪,共获取了46个站点的声速剖面,并基于同步观测的CTD数据,利用3种常用的声速算法计算了这些站点的声速剖面。所有这些站点的测深度均超过1500m,而且调查时间为3个不同的季节。CTD数据计算得到的声速剖面与声速测量仪器观测的声速剖面的比较表明,在三种算法中,Chen和Millero算法在积分平均意义上是最好的。当定点比较时,在水深大于800m或者小于200m的范围内,Wilson算法较好;在其他水深范围内,Chen和Millero的算法的计算结果和实际测量结果较为一致。     

太湖湖体水环境容量计算

针对太湖风生流的特点,提出考虑风向风速频率修正及污染带控制的水环境容量计算方法,建立了太湖水量水质数学模型,并结合水文水质资料对流场和浓度场进行模拟和验证.在控制单个污染带面积为1～3 km2,污染带总长度为湖岸线长度10%的基础上采用该方法进行计算,计算结果更可靠.太湖CODcr的水环境容量为132727 t/a,TN的水环境容量为7700 t/a.     

Interactive discovery of sequential patterns in time series of wind data

Wind speed and direction vary over space and time due to the interactions between different pressures and temperature gradients within the atmospheric layers. Near the earth’s surface, these interactions are modulated by topography and artificial structures. Hence, characterizing wind behaviour over large areas and long periods is a complex but essential task for various energy-related applications. In this study, we present a novel approach to discover wind patterns by integrating sequential pattern mining and interactive visualization techniques. The approach relies on the use of the Linear time Closed pattern Miner sequence algorithm in conjunction with a time sliding window that allows the discovery of all sequential patterns present in the data. These patterns are then visualized using integrated 2D and 3D coordinated multiple views and visually explored to gain insight into the characteristics of the wind from a spatial, temporal and attribute (type of wind pattern) point of view. This proposed approach is used to analyse 10 years of hourly wind speed and direction data for 29 weather stations in the Netherlands. The results show that there are 15 main sequential patterns in the data. The spatial task shows that weather stations located in the same region do not necessarily experience similar wind pattern. For within the selected time interval, similar wind patterns can be observed in different stations and in the same station at different times of occurrence. The attribute task discovered that the repetitive occurrences of chosen pattern indicate as regular wind behaviour at different weather stations that persisted continuously over time. The results of these tasks show that the proposed interactive discovery facilitates the understanding of wind dynamics in space and time.     

襄樊汉江四桥大口径灌注桩成孔施工实践

介绍了使用泥浆护壁气举反循环回转钻进工艺进行襄樊汉江四桥大口径嵌岩桩的施工实践。施工中采用下置双护简隔离卵石层，合理选用钻头类型(卵砾石层采用五翼合金刮刀钻头，基岩采用球齿滚刀钻头)和钻进参数(混合器沉没深度，尾管长度，孔内空气流量与压力)，摸索与总结出一套复杂地层成孔施工经验。     

截齿破岩机制及截线间距优化试验研究

根据截齿侵入岩石的断裂特征和相关试验数据,分析了破岩机制及不同截线间距对破岩效果的影响。在单刀旋转截割试验平台上,以不同切削深度和截线间距进行组合试验,并结合比能耗、粗度指数及截割载荷3个评价指标,对截线间距进行优化,研究截割该类型砂岩时截线间距与切削深度的最佳比值。试验结果表明,岩石在单齿旋转截割作用下的破碎过程大致可以分为初始压碎区细粒岩屑生成、密实核形成并储能、各向裂纹的扩展与连通、断裂体崩落、二次压碎区细粒岩屑生成5个阶段,且岩屑的断裂是以拉伸为主并伴随着挤压和剪切的共同作用;在最佳截割条件下,粗度指数较高,岩屑成块率增加,且比能耗低。通过分析岩石破碎过程及对截线间距的优化,可为掘进机破岩机制研究及截齿布置提供参考。     

东北地区风能资源空间分布特征与模拟

利用东北地区104个气象站1991~2010年观测资料和70个测风塔2009年6月~2010年5月测风资料,进行了风能资源空间分布特征分析,并利用中尺度模式WRF进行风能资源空间模拟,以研究观测站点稀少地区的风能资源分布特征。研究结果表明:1东北地区气象站和测风塔揭示的大风区域主要分布在平原和丘陵的高海拔地带。2中尺度模式WRF能够较好地模拟东北区域风速分布的气候特征,模拟结果既反映出平原大面积的大风区域,也可反映出山区因地形起伏造成的风速空间分布差异。3对风能资源参数模拟结果进行海拔高度订正,可以进一步提高模式计算结果的准确性和可靠性。4松嫩平原、辽河平原、三江平原70 m高度年平均风功率密度在300~500 W/m2之间,属于风能资源可利用区或较丰富区;在辽宁省西部、吉林省中部和黑龙江省中部丘陵以及东北地区东南部的呈东北-西南走向的中高山区的70 m年平均风功率密度可达300 W/m2以上,局部地方可达500 W/m2以上,风能资源丰富。